Central and East Africa

Edward Leigh Excerpts

Monday 25th January 2016 Commons Chamber

[Stephen Phillips (Sleaford and North Hykeham) (Con)]

I beg to move,

That this House recognises the importance of stability in Central and East Africa to the security of the United Kingdom; welcomes the Government’s continued engagement in the region and commitment to the spending of development aid to ensure good governance and the eradication of corruption and extreme poverty; deplores the use of violence or terror by any party to secure political aims; and calls on the Government to adopt further measures, together with the international community, to prevent civil war and ensure that the rule of law is maintained.

The motion stands in my name and that of my hon. Friend the Member for Stafford (Jeremy Lefroy). In many senses, this debate, which I am grateful to the Backbench Business Committee for having granted, is opportune, but in some respects it has come on extraordinarily quickly, given that it was only asked for last Tuesday. Many Members who would have wished to speak are not here because the International Development Committee is currently in Brussels. I am grateful to my right hon. Friend the Minister for responding to the debate, but, as I understand it, my hon. Friend the Minister for Africa is also currently overseas.

I myself returned from east Africa this morning in something of a hurry. I should record my considerable thanks to the hon. Members who threatened—if I can put it in those terms—to stand in for me, had I not managed to make a rather convoluted journey from Nairobi to Addis Ababa and back to London. In particular, I thank my hon. Friends the Members for Newbury (Richard Benyon), for Aldridge-Brownhills (Wendy Morton) and for Harrow East (Bob Blackman), who, in the absence of my hon. Friend the Member for Stafford, all offered to move the motion if I was not here.

The UK’s diplomatic and developmental policies in Africa are a wide topic, which, in one sense, has been made no less wide by limiting the debate to two regions. Although patterns in their experiences can be seen across the continent, the nations of east and central Africa have particular problems that call for consideration in the House. It is important, therefore, that the House has a chance to debate the issues and how the UK’s response can best achieve peace and stability not only in the region, but for us.

Everyone in the House knows that Africa is growing, but recent UN estimates have changed how we look at the continent’s demography. In 2004, the UN predicted that Africa’s population would grow to 2.3 billion by the end of the century, within a global population of 9.1 billion. It now estimates, however, that the global population will in fact be 11.2 billion and that almost all of those extra people will be in Africa. According to the UN, the continent will be home to 4.4 billion people—an increase of 2 billion on its previous estimate.

If the new projections are right, the effect on geopolitics across the world will be huge. It will mean that by the end of this century almost 40% of the world’s population will be African. To put it in perspective, that is four times the share of Europe and north America combined and almost the same as the share of Asia. Currently, Africa has only one of the world’s 10 most populous countries, but the UN says that by 2100 it will have five: Nigeria, Tanzania, Niger, Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of Congo. All of them, of course, feature in the regions being considered today.

Much could change over the next eight decades, and things might be different by the end of the century, but at present none of these countries is either particularly prosperous or has demonstrated incredible stability over the last decades. Even if they make progress, the pressure caused by a quadrupling of their populations will, at best, hinder their efforts to secure that stability and, at worst, derail them entirely. Those pressures will be felt by every country in the region in different ways and at different times.

We and our constituents might ask why that should be a problem for the UK. Even if we set aside the humanitarian and moral considerations, which I know many people in the House and the country do not, we have to understand that this is not just a problem for Africa; it affects our own security, because, if population pressures are not properly dealt with and if African Governments do not embrace stable democracy and tackle corruption, the continent will not move forward, and that will have implications for us. Stable economies are not possible without stable government, and only stable economies can lift people out of the poverty endemic in the region and allow them to live dignified and meaningful lives.

Corruption and political infighting are rife across east and central Africa—indeed, across the entire continent—and if nothing is done to tackle them, things will not only stay the same but get worse.

[Sir Edward Leigh (Gainsborough) (Con)]

One of the advantages of this sort of debate is that it allows us to raise constituency problems. My hon. and learned Friend will know of my constituent, Nicholas Monson, whose son, Alexander Monson, was beaten to death—the evidence is overwhelming—in a police cell in Kenya. Will he encourage the Minister to go on encouraging our high commissioner in Kenya to ensure that justice is done and that Kenya has a proper judicial system? This poor boy lost his life.

[Stephen Phillips]

As my hon. Friend says, I do know about the case, and I am very happy to encourage the Minister and his colleagues in the Foreign Office to do everything they can to ensure that the Kenyan authorities do everything they can to bring those responsible to justice, not just for the family but for everybody who has sustained some injustice in Kenya or elsewhere in the developing world.

As we have seen on our shores in recent months, another problem caused by increasing populations across Africa is people wanting to travel here in search of a better life. We know from past and present experiences that their numbers are increasing. The House has to grapple with this issue. Ensuring stable development, democracy and politics across east and central Africa is most definitely our problem, because without it we will see more of the sort of migration we have on our shores now.

The region is wide and comprises many states—right hon. and hon. Members will no doubt wish to discuss a number of them—but I want to concentrate on eight. Four are extremely fragile: Burundi, Chad, the Central African Republic and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The other four are doing rather better but are at risk of instability: Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania and Kenya. While each nation is perhaps unhappy in its own way—to borrow a phrase—patterns and themes emerge that play out not only regionally but across the continent. We must recognise those themes, some of which I have already highlighted, if we are to play a successful role in helping Africa to develop and thrive, for its benefit and, as I hope I have made clear, ours.

One pattern that emerges strongly when we look at the region is that of democratic process. We all know that elections are extremely important, and we need to continue to encourage democracy whenever we can. When there are problems with the process, they can become a flashpoint for violence and instability, particularly in this part of the world. Multi-party democratic states are touted, where they are set up, as a way of ensuring peace and prosperity for individual nations. When those in charge are seen to be flouting the rules or feathering their own nests, as is sometimes the case, populations understandably react.

A particularly prolific source of violence at the moment stems from the continued attempts of some of those who hold political office to extend constitutional term limits. It happened, for example, in Chad, where the two-term presidential limit was scrapped in 2004 by President Déby, who has now been in charge since 1990 and is expected to win again comfortably in the elections taking place this April. He has a tight grip on power, and it is fair to say that he strives to silence dissenting voices. Amid heightened social tensions and the regional spread of Islamist activism from Boko Haram in Nigeria, Chad will remain vulnerable to destabilisation attempts. We have to be aware that although violence has thus far been minimal, there is a risk of more widespread instability that could give safe haven to armed militias and violent Islamist groups.

An example of the serious instability to which the extension of presidential constitutional time limits and tinkering with them can lead, is currently being played out in Burundi. It began in April last year when President Nkurunziza announced his intention to run for a third term, arguing, as Members know from the debate led by my hon. Friend the Member for Stafford, that he had not reached his constitutional two-term limit because he was appointed rather than elected for his first term. It was a position with which few agreed, but he stayed in office none the less.

While he was out of the country in May, there was a failed army coup, and he was easily re-elected in July. Since then, we have heard a familiar tune, with independent media shut down, opponents murdered and opposition-leaning neighbourhoods raided. Young men are taking up arms in a way that we have not seen since the 1990s, which is extremely concerning for those of us who are old enough to have witnessed the genocide that took place in Rwanda in 1994. In Burundi, of course, there have been attempted assassinations, and we know that security forces have gone from house to house, murdering suspected opposition fighters.

The UN estimates that more than 200,000 Burundians have fled since April, with many going to Rwanda. Rumours are flying that Tutsis forced to leave Burundi will join with their fellow tribesmen in the Rwandan Government to intervene against the Hutu-dominated Burundian regime. The whole region is therefore something of a flashpoint. Memories of the genocide are all too recent. Thankfully, a descent into out-and-out ethnic violence has so far not happened, but the fears are well placed and widespread, as I know from spending the last three days in Kigali, where, I should make it clear to the House, the better part of team Phillips is currently working for the Government.