EU and Russia (EUC Report)

Earl of Sandwich Excerpts

Tuesday 24th March 2015 Lords Chamber

[The Earl of Sandwich (CB)]

My Lords, we must all deplore the tragic loss of life caused by Russia’s invasion of Crimea and its infiltration into eastern Ukraine and, before that, Transnistria and two areas of Georgia, flouting international law. Nothing that is said today about mistakes by the EU or ourselves can take away from the brutal actions of the present Russian Government. Many, many Russians have opposed the latest invasion—some were parents of fallen soldiers—but they have been silenced by oppression and propaganda. That is why I welcome this debate, having served on the committee, and I warmly thank the noble Lord, Lord Tugendhat, for his patient chairmanship.

This debate could be called Russia’s nimby because the essence of it is the extent to which Europeans should intrude—or, to put it more politely, be invited—into Russia’s back yard. Historically, we Europeans should perhaps have learnt our lessons and realised that the great bear was bound to growl and lash out the moment any smarter, smaller animals approached him. But of course there is also a clash of civilisations. We in the European Union are naturally proud of ours. We think that we have got the human condition about right and that the Copenhagen criteria of justice and the rule of law should eventually suit everyone in the world. What else, we say, are the Universal Declaration of Human Rights or the European convention for if they are not statements of global faith? Universality for many liberal-minded people now is not even debatable.

However, we have to acknowledge that there are degrees of awareness and belief. There are Europeans in Russia and Russians in Europe, all with very different standpoints. Mrs Thatcher’s simple test was to ask whom one could do business with. If we are selling our house to an oligarch, presumably we are not in the least concerned about his attitude to human rights, but if he proposes marriage to one of our family then we begin to be concerned about his motives. I believe that we should make much more effort to understand Russia’s point of view. The Russians say that the EU has been treating Russia as though it was a prospective EU candidate—I quote from the evidence—

“prepared to sacrifice its interests and sovereign rights for the sake of future membership”.

I think the committee accepted that there is some truth in that.

At the end of the Cold War, there were genuine overtures on both sides and discussions of Russia’s future—if not within the EU, at least in harmony with what the EU was doing. The noble Lord, Lord Judd, described that era. Then, after Yeltsin in 2000, the scene changed again and this is where we say that the EU and its member states were “sleep-walking”. I stand by that phrase.

The importance of the new Commission’s review of its neighbourhood policy, coming up in May, is that it inevitably includes countries such as Ukraine which are already within the Russian sphere of influence. As the heroes of the Maidan in Kiev argued a year ago, the EU brings potential economic and social benefits, depending on the reforms that must pave the way. In Ukraine, especially, alongside Russia’s influence there are equally powerful religious beliefs and cultural traditions which come down from Poland and Austria and which are entirely European, as there are, it can be argued, with French and other influences within Russia, so on that score the nimby theory breaks down very quickly.

Time should be a healer, but how rapidly we seem to move on from our universal belief. We are already forgetting about Crimea. The OSCE has just cancelled a photographic exhibition in Vienna marking the anniversary of the Crimean invasion. The Ukrainians cannot believe that the West, having condemned Russia’s military action so recently, should now even disown the photographer.

The situation in Georgia, seven years after the war with Russia, remains very serious. There is considerable uncertainty in Abkhazia and South Ossetia over the borders, visas, the use of language, Russian subsidies and many other critical issues. I visited Georgia last July just after the signing of the new association agreement. I know that the agreement still promises economic and trading advantages, but trade has stagnated, tourism is still suffering and the political scene is fragile following the reshuffle of Ministers.

In our report we said that we should look forward to renewed EU dialogue with Russia, and this is now being bravely led by Chancellor Merkel. We should build upon our mutual interests in foreign policy, such as the nuclear negotiations with Iran and possible ways forward in Syria. We should recognise our strong cultural ties and the value of educational exchanges. The right reverend Prelate mentioned the importance of churches and non-governmental organisations. All these must be rebuilt. We should also take part at some level in the 70th anniversary commemorations in May. I hope that the Minister will clarify what will be happening then.

It is conventional to say that we have been well served by the staff. However, more than that, we have depended on the skills and expertise of our clerks, Roshani Palamakumbura, Sarah Jones and, before her, Julia Labeta, and our adviser Dr Samuel Greene. To all of them we owe a debt alongside the gratitude that we owe to our chairman.

European Union (Definition of Treaties) (Association Agreement) (Georgia) Order 2015

Earl of Sandwich Excerpts

Thursday 26th February 2015 Grand Committee

[Baroness Ludford (LD)]

My Lords, I also thank my noble friend the Minister for her helpful introduction and explanation of the situation. I spent many years making EU law, but perhaps not so much time implementing it, and therefore I am not familiar with this process. Before moving on to other things, perhaps I could ask about the draft Explanatory Memorandum. It explains that one of the effects of the order, declaring that the agreement is to be regarded as an EU treaty under the ECA 1972, is that certain rights and obligations under the agreement automatically become law in the United Kingdom and then subordinate legislation can be made to give effect to the provisions of the agreement. I am not clear which rights and obligations automatically become law. It may be that the noble Baroness can take me aside at some point and explain how all this works, and that will clear my confusion.

My more general point is to strongly welcome these association agreements. I agree with everything the noble Baroness has said about the prospect of not only greater prosperity for the citizens of these three countries, but also greater security for the European Union, and I agree that the prospect of better energy security is a factor in that discussion.

I take the point made by the noble Earl, Lord Dundee, about the role of the Council of Europe. It is important that the roles of the EU and the Council of Europe should be complementary. It is fair to say that the EU has much greater resources than the Council of Europe; we know that the Council is always stretched for money, partly because its member states do not give it enough. They should not trip over each other. At one point there was a tendency for the EU to sort of push aside the Council of Europe, which is not a clever idea. The EU needs to come in as a complementary body, and of course it has another role to play in terms of the economic and trade relationship. However, for the rule of law, fighting corruption and an independent judiciary, obviously we have the whole Strasbourg package—aquis, if you like—and that is essentially what the EU wants to implement. There should not be any institutional jealousy between the two organisations. Sometimes during my time as a Member of the European Parliament, there was evidence of a bit of that. After all, the EU pinched the flag of the Council of Europe. However, it is important that the two should work together so as to add value to each other.

I welcome what the Minister said about the provisions on the rule of law and the fight against corruption which have been in force since last November. I should like to stress the importance of that. If we look at the history of countries acceding to the EU, although I know that this is not about accession, it is arguable that not enough was done in these areas before they were admitted to the European Union and there have been continuing problems in the existing member states. More must be done. We really need to front-load this issue. You cannot have a flourishing economy or property rights without an independent judiciary. It is almost more important even than democracy, in a sense. Certainly, some drew that conclusion from the western Balkans. You cannot have economic reform, as I say, without a strong independent judicial system.

I agree with the Minister that, while we must not overstate it, these association agreements have the potential to have a beneficial effect on the prospect of dealing with the conflicts because the people in the breakaway regions would be able to see the benefits of participating in a deep relationship with the EU and would want a slice of the action. But the association agreements of themselves are not going to solve the conflicts.

I welcome what the Minister had to say in going slightly outside the scope of these orders to update us on the situation as regards Ukraine. In that context, I am extremely shocked to read today that the President of the Republic of Cyprus, Mr Anastasiades, on a visit to Moscow, has formalised an agreement for Russian warships to use Cypriot military bases and has also spoken against EU policy on Ukraine. We know that there is press commentary on the difficulty of keeping together a common EU policy on sanctions and the prospect of tightening sanctions on Russia. There were worries about Greece. There have been worries about Hungary, of course, which I mentioned in the House the other day. Mr Orban hosted President Putin the other day. I personally find this the most extraordinary disloyalty by EU member states towards a common EU policy on Russia. I hope that some very candid words are being shared around the European Council table with some of our member states.

I know we have just a short procedure here so I will not go on. These association agreements are extremely welcome. Perhaps from smaller acorns big things will grow. One day, perhaps, one or more of these countries will be eligible to join the European Union. This is not the time and there is no guarantee of that. Personally, I hope that it might be possible for at least some of them and this at least leaves the door open. But as the Minister said, it is their sovereign choice what relationship they want with the EU. All parties in the UK have always supported the process of enlargement and the European Neighbourhood Policy, because it is not just for benefit of those countries; it is for our security.

[The Earl of Sandwich (CB)]

My Lords, I am grateful for this opportunity to say a few words. I was in Georgia last July, just after the association agreement was signed, and I cannot underestimate the euphoria that there was, but of course I was among Ministers and people negotiating the agreement. The Georgian Orthodox Church is not exactly of the same mind and I think it may lead them all downhill.

I note from the Explanatory Memorandum that the impact is very modest on the UK economy. The figure of £0.6 million is quoted. Perhaps the Minister could reassure me that this really is the bottom end of the range and that Georgia, if the situation remains stable, can expect a gradual improvement. I would also like to be reassured that there has been no further development on the Russian front in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. It is not a stable Government—there has already been a change of Minister since we were there—but I am very pleased to read in press reports of the solidarity there is between Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia. They were, for example, at the celebration of the centenary events of the Maidan in Kiev. The Georgian President was invited, and I know that there has been a lot of exchange. I do not think that these association agreements need disturb the Russians unduly. We have moved on from last year and must all expect greater prosperity to follow from them.

I was on the European Union Committee which produced the report on Ukraine and Russia recently. I very much hope the Government will respond to it swiftly, because it will give more of us an urgent opportunity to discuss the situation.

Kuwait: Bidoon

Earl of Sandwich Excerpts

Tuesday 2nd December 2014 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, the situation in regards to the Comoro Islands is that there have been reports in the media that a senior official in the Kuwaiti Ministry of Interior recently stated that the Kuwaiti Government would start helping the Bidoon to register for what was described as economic citizenship of the Comoro Islands. That is a media report and we do not, as a Government, have further detail of any formal proposals. I am aware that the Comoros Government have previously provided passports to stateless residents from elsewhere in the UAE. However, with regard to those persons in Kuwait who claim to be Bidoon but who are not those who can claim full citizenship and go through that process, it is for that remainder to negotiate with Kuwait how Kuwait determines their link to other countries. This Government do not get involved in that situation.

[The Earl of Sandwich (CB)]

My Lords, is it not the case that the Kuwaiti Government made a positive move in 2011 towards bringing the health and education benefits of Bidoon people on a level with those of Kuwaiti citizens? Could the Government not encourage that move, because the Kuwaiti Government are not following through with it?

[Baroness Anelay of St Johns]

My Lords, in fact there were two steps taken, very appropriately, by the Kuwaiti Government. The first was to set up a mechanism by which adjudication can be made as to which category those claiming citizenship may fall into. That process is going ahead—it was established in 2010 and has a five-year life to run—and we, as others, are clearly getting impatient and making representations. With regard to education, we have had reports from NGOs and individuals that access to education has been made difficult, but the Kuwaiti Government say that that is not the case.

Russia

Earl of Sandwich Excerpts

Thursday 16th October 2014 Lords Chamber

[The Earl of Sandwich (CB)]

My Lords, it is a pleasure to follow someone who is so knowledgeable and reasonable. I welcome the Minister to her complicated portfolio and thank the noble Baroness, Lady Falkner, for bringing this important subject before us. As she explained, Russia has been on our minds for most of this year because of the theft of Crimea and the attempted isolation of eastern Ukraine. There is a clear case against Russia in international law, yet we do not seem to be able to do anything about it. There is the so-called precedent of our intervention in Kosovo, which still bothers some EU members, but it is irrelevant because that intervention was clearly based on the responsibility to protect against a clear case of genocide.

The Budapest agreement and the Council of Europe are all possibilities for dialogue, but I do not see them as reasons for prosecution. It seems unlikely that Russia will be taken to any court, except perhaps courts of arbitration over its many seized assets. Russia had no difficulty in fending off Georgia’s attempt in 2008 to take it to the International Court of Justice over Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Why should Russia worry now?

The West’s only non-military weapon is sanctions. European Union sanctions on assets and individuals are having some measurable but limited effect, and there it is a trial of strength between the two powerful economies, with Russia holding the key energy card—although that card has been somewhat devalued. Will the Government do something to uncover Russian corruption in London, which has been the subject of other debates in this House previously? It somehow still escapes our anti-money-laundering legislation.

This debate is also about democratic principles, and this has been much discussed. We must be under no illusions about Russian democracy, as the noble Lord, Lord Cormack, said. Democracy is an elastic concept. We can use it to express some theoretical Athenian objective, but around the world it is being stretched in many directions and can accompany even the worst tyrannies. The Russian state has always been an autocracy but can be described as a guided democracy. Mr Putin makes quite a good show of democracy. He has a popular mandate. He is genuinely interested in democratic principles as long as they serve the state and are created by it.

Although he is an ex-KGB officer and hardly a man of the people, there have been occasions when the President has directly engaged the people, especially in a crisis where the state has proved itself incompetent. There were, for example, the forest fires of the summer of 2010 in Nizhny Novgorod, when Putin ran the gauntlet of angry villagers—19 were killed, hundreds of homes were destroyed and fire engines ran out of water. There was the revolt at the alumina plant in Pikalyovo a year earlier, when the power station was shut down, and Putin took pleasure in humiliating the responsible oligarch, Deripaska, in front of hundreds of factory workers. These were farcical times in which the President appeared less like a tsar and more like Houdini, a showman or a skilled master of public relations.

The same theatre applies to the rule of law. The Yeltsin reforms of the judiciary, which did away with the KGB and led to so much expectation in the 1990s, were only paper thin. In his battles and power struggles with the oligarchs, the President has made a continual show of using the law while in reality he and his friends, using the old KGB techniques—as the noble Lord, Lord Anderson, said—have brazenly ignored or distorted the law in their favour. There has always been an inner circle around the throne, and today this consists of the oligarchs and shareholders who benefit directly from the vast wealth surrounding state-owned assets.

Under various European treaties, we are signed up to the Copenhagen principles, which summarise good governance, democracy, the rule of law and transparency. But we should not make too many assumptions about European influence on Russia. The attraction of enlargement is, or was, based on the obvious wealth of eastern European states that have recently joined or been associated with the EU. Yet, the vast majority that have not been in Europe do not see it that way. They have suffered steady economic decline, repression, unemployment and inequality. The magic of privatisation did not rub off in Russia, as communists could easily predict. Not surprisingly, they have also been antagonised by the EU’s gradual enlargement towards Russian territory, demonstrated by the confrontation of the two ideologies in eastern Ukraine. Enlargement is clearly coming to an end.

Even in Georgia, where there is great expectation of the new association agreement, there are hesitations about conditionality, and ordinary liberties that are familiar to us are still a long way off. There is no doubt that we should be rethinking our whole attitude to Russia. Does the noble Baroness accept that we have not given it enough attention in the Foreign Office, and is she satisfied that, even now, we have sufficient expertise in the FCO? Sub-Committee C of the European Union Committee, to which I belong, is currently looking at Russia and will soon produce a verdict on the EEAS’s perhaps overenthusiastic policy towards Ukraine. Perhaps this policy could not have been avoided, given the vast economic power and political influence of the EU, but it is certainly time to review it.

Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (EUC Report)

Earl of Sandwich Excerpts

Tuesday 17th June 2014 Lords Chamber

[The Earl of Sandwich (CB)]

My Lords, this has been a fascinating learning exercise for me, and I think for other people involved. The chairman has given us an upbeat introduction; I hope and think that he is not being overoptimistic, but that is his characteristic. It has been a privilege to work with him, not only because of his extensive knowledge of the EU and the United States but because he has been such good company, and it was a pleasure to travel with him and some of the committee to Brussels.

I was brought up in a non-government environment in which fortress Europe was a concept to be resisted because it was always going to be built at the expense of the rest of the world, notably the poorest developing countries. The notorious CAP we all remember, in the time of the butter mountains, was also the enemy because it would ultimately work against protectionist philosophy and destroy markets enjoyed by the old Commonwealth countries.

Time has moved on and the CAP has been slowly adapted to the needs of the environment. I have to admit that I am a very minor beneficiary of the CAP through the countryside stewardship scheme. The Cotonou agreement has made life a little easier for the African, Caribbean and Pacific countries in the transition to freer trade arrangements, which have to come. The new treaty will also bring many benefits in the long run to third countries, as our chairman has said, and as our report tries to demonstrate, although it is a difficult argument to make at this time.

The wild card is, of course, China, whose premier, Li Keqiang, is in London this week. We in the UK have a lot of ground to make up if we are going to attract more trade with China while retaining our proud position on issues such as Tibet, human rights and student visas. It seems very likely, as the noble Lord, Lord Tugendhat, has said, that TTIP will help us in this situation in the long run. My strongest memory in Brussels is of the Chinese envoy to the EU, Mr. Zhang Kening, stoically pretending across the table that TTIP might help the US and the EU, but that it would not be a suitable template for a multilateral treaty. This was not what we wanted to hear, but, as we state on page 23 of the report, the Chinese warned us quite solemnly that there were varying degrees of economic development around the world among WTO members, and each member would have to see whether the idea was “a good one or a bad one”. I felt during our inquiry that this is a critical issue in the negotiations: whether the treaty, whatever its advantages for the two parties, can also become a catalyst to international trade as a whole and provide a new impetus to the moribund Doha round, as the noble Lord, Lord Lamont, mentioned and I think the Government believe.

We all know that the US and some EU member states have their eye firmly fixed on China and the potential prosperity that we will enjoy and how it will react to TTIP, given its immense present and future influence in world markets. Our former Minister, the noble Lord, Lord Green, expressed the hope that China would become increasingly involved and that following the Bali agreement the UK should keep up the momentum in our own global interest. Equally, we must take seriously China’s message to us that it stands with developing countries when it comes to making concessions in the Doha round.

There is a school of thought, mentioned by the noble Lord, Lord Liddle, I think, that TTIP could be an economic version of NATO, softening the Atlantic relationship into one which will gradually lubricate the crevices of political alliances and opposing nation states. The disadvantages of this happy metaphor are obvious: that the EU and the US are still mainly concerned with themselves and their western concepts of freedom and democracy when in fact they ought to be opening out still further to a much wider world of partnerships and trade links.

That, in broad terms, is the position of the unions and the trade justice campaign, which see fair trade disappearing into a sea of mercantilism and the long-fought rights of workers dissolving in the erosion of core labour standards. They are also apprehensive of the investment and procurement provisions of TTIP which they say could, under this treaty, enable US companies to buy into much cherished institutions at home, such as the NHS.

I am sorry that we did not give a little more space in the report to the impact on third countries because the evidence was inconclusive. The TUC and others said that tariff changes in TTIP could have a negative effect on countries, such as Bangladesh, selling footwear and textiles and could devalue existing agreements. On the other hand, the noble Lord, Lord Mandelson, told us that most developing countries were not competing with the EU at the top end of the value chain.

Professor Baldwin indicated that the EU could provide development assistance which would compensate the losers, as it had in the past with free trade agreements. Perhaps the Government will comment on that. Another benefit was seen in the form of harmonised regulation: if TTIP succeeded in its aims, and the principle of mutual recognition was non-discriminatory, the rest of the world would be dealing with one set of regulations instead of two.

We cannot expect everything from this treaty. I agree with our chairman and the noble Baroness, Lady Quin, about the virtues of a living agreement. That is surely going to come and is something that I think the trade commissioner was advocating privately.

The usual channels have been generous in giving us time for this debate. We were concerned that TTIP was still an obscure subject. I have never seen the Chamber empty faster than today when our poor chairman rose to speak. It was certainly not a comment on him but shows the awareness of the subject. This is partly because the negotiations are still not transparent. Our report could help to spread the word, although it will hardly be at a popular level. We asked for a communications strategy and the new Minister, who is here, the noble Lord, Lord Livingston, appeared to agree—I hope he will confirm that—and told us that increasing public awareness of the treaty was a priority for Her Majesty’s Government. Perhaps he will comment on the relationship between that and the negotiations. Surely this is much more important in the public mind than the musical chairs going on in Strasbourg and Brussels.

Finally I thank Julia and Roshani and our specialist adviser, Dr Dennis Novy, among others, for their remarkable grasp of this quite complex subject and for making it intelligible to me and the army of readers who we hope will be scrutinising this report.

South Sudan

Earl of Sandwich Excerpts

Monday 24th March 2014 Lords Chamber

[The Earl of Sandwich (CB)]

My Lords, I begin by apologising to the noble Lord, Lord Chidgey, for arriving late in his introductory speech. I should normally be struck off the list, but business is very hard to predict in the House of Lords. I thank the Whips on the Front Bench for resurrecting me.

All of us who follow South Sudan regularly have been dismayed and disturbed by the events in December, having had high expectations of Africa’s youngest country. What concerns me most is that so much killing will discourage even those who supported and nurtured this country long before its independence. I am sure that noble Lords will have read, as I have, other harrowing accounts about Malakal and Bor and especially the work of the International Committee of the Red Cross and of Médecins sans Frontières, which we must highly commend for their swift action. Through the aid agencies and the churches, we somehow have to rebuild the trust that we know exists among the people of South Sudan. We have to remind ourselves of the many bonds between the different races and that this is primarily a political conflict, in my view, based on and exploiting ethnic divisions. In short, it is a failure of leadership where it was most needed.

One of the most critical problems is the loss of confidence in UNMISS and the possibility that the UN itself will have to rethink its mandate in terms of nation building rather than state building. What is our Government’s analysis of this? Does the Minister agree that there has been perhaps too much emphasis on influencing—at times even controlling—organs of central government? One can imagine the enthusiasm of supporting states at a time of independence. Does she agree that there has therefore been too little emphasis on devolving power and ensuring that capacity building in the regions and people’s participation in local communities are equally important?

The showdown between Salva Kiir and the UN may now have passed, judging by more soothing comments I read recently from the GOSS. It would be very serious if this row halted the basic humanitarian work of the UN and the related agencies, on top of the considerable present challenges of feeding and sheltering tens of thousands in the midst of civil war and the continuing arrivals of refugees from almost every direction. The fighting has continued in Upper Nile, Unity and Jonglei in spite of efforts at diplomacy and peacekeeping.

I have no doubt that the UK has played a useful and important role in the troika during the IGAD talks in Ethiopia, but if the principals are not willing to settle their differences—which have a long history going back before the CPA—what hope is there for diplomats? I trust that we are not going to reduce the staff any further in the Sudan unit, for instance, or in South Sudan itself at a time when, at the onset of the rains, we are going to see a much bigger humanitarian disaster unless aid agencies can pre-position their supplies in time. I understand that, so far, owing to official obstruction as well as road conditions, the World Food Programme has been able to reach only 765,000 people—about three-quarters of a million—out of the 2.5 million affected by the conflict, and that is only in the south, although it has now begun airdrops in the three conflict states. UNHCR and UNOCHA estimate an even higher figure at risk of food insecurity, and there has been concern about the high level of malnutrition seen among young refugees arriving in Ethiopia from the north-east.

As we heard from the noble Lord, Lord Chidgey, the situation in Abyei remains precarious. We heard from the noble Baroness, Lady Cox, that across the border in South Kordofan the Nuba people are still the victims of bombardment by the Sudanese armed forces. There is no doubt that Khartoum has taken advantage of the situation in the south to exploit its own position.

What about Riek Machar, the maverick opposition figure who has a long track record in Sudan? I notice that the IGAD statement loosely condemned tribalism and ideological bankruptcy. I am not sure which one of those applies to whom, and I do not know whether the member states of IGAD have any idea how to deal with Riek Machar. There are suspicions that he may return to his old alliance with the north. He has long had ties with the UK, and the FCO needs to make more effort to bring him back to the negotiating table. Perhaps the Minister will update us also on the position of his colleagues, who are in detention and the subject of diplomacy.

Finally, there has to be national reconciliation. There are currently three different official bodies concerned with justice and reconciliation and, although they put out a joint statement in January, there is concern that they are not yet active. The churches, on the other hand, led by Archbishop Deng, are an essential part of this process. They are already active and I understand that their initial focus will be on the displaced from Bor, Malakal and Nimule, who have suffered most in the recent conflict.

Ukraine

Earl of Sandwich Excerpts

Tuesday 18th March 2014 Lords Chamber

[The Earl of Sandwich (CB)]

My Lords, the noble Baroness opening the debate rightly condemned Russian aggression in Crimea and MPs expressed similar disapproval earlier this afternoon. However, in the light of history, I am not sure that we could have done much about it.

I am a strong advocate of European enlargement, and it is undeniable that the acceptance of new applicants from eastern Europe and the Balkans has contributed to peace and stability there. However, as the EU nudges further east, we have to be especially careful not to upset and antagonise the Russian minority in Ukraine, or to risk that country becoming further divided. The noble Lord, Lord Chidgey, rightly referred to the innumerable instances of minorities all over Europe. The stealing back of Crimea makes eastern Ukraine the next target of Russian resentment and today’s attack on a Ukrainian garrison is ominous and another gross violation of international law.

The phrase “western allies” can be misleading. The EU cannot make a strong historical case for an alliance with Ukraine. As Kievan Rus, the first Slavic state converted to orthodox Christianity, Ukraine has been closely linked to Russia since its heyday in the 10th and 11th centuries. The country was subsequently ruled by both Lithuania and Poland, and its borders were never clearly drawn.

Crimea, too, has had a chequered history. The Crimean Tatars were dominant for more than three centuries until they were cruelly deported in large numbers by Stalin, and later unfairly discredited as Nazi sympathisers. Yet it was to prevent Russia from entering the Mediterranean that we fought alongside the Ottoman Empire in the Crimean War, but that policy obviously did not work.

I visited Yalta in 1964 and it never occurred to me then whether it was Russian or Ukrainian. Everything came under the USSR umbrella. I remember standing on the terrace overlooking the Black Sea where, in February 1945, the leaders of the US, UK and Russia had signed a historic agreement to divide Germany into three. Russia broke its promises then and it has broken them again now. The Cold War was still to come and nearly seven decades later we are wondering whether it has yet gone.

I do not expect war to break out over Ukraine. I prefer to think of the present crisis as a bad dream interrupting the course of history. It cannot and should not develop into hostilities. We have done with war in Europe, and I find the references to Sudetenland exaggerated and quite disturbing. All three Yalta powers should be honouring the 1994 Budapest agreement guaranteeing Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Instead, Putin is repeating his performance in Georgia in 2008 by first threatening and then virtually annexing sovereign territories in the name of defending Russian citizens.

What are President Putin’s motives? This has been the subject of great speculation, but it seems that the strongest motive is simply Mother Russia. This could be seen as imperialism and expansion in Crimea and eastern Ukraine but Crimea is inescapably part of Russian influence and naval domination of the Black Sea. Kiev, already central to the Rus legend, became the third city of the Soviet Union after Moscow and Leningrad. So we should not be too surprised that Ukraine is still on the Russian doorstep or that Russians have a great hankering after former glory.

While we, the US and individual states should complain to Russia through warnings and sanctions—as we would in any country where human rights and international law are aggressively violated—the EU should not make too many assumptions about Ukraine’s position as an ally. Ever since the Berlin Wall came down, Europe has faced east, looking beyond the boundaries of enlargement into new member states. It may be that the EU has been looking too enthusiastically at arrangements with countries directly bordering Russia. Since the Orange Revolution in Ukraine there has been a flurry of diplomatic visits to Kiev under the neighbourhood policy, as though Ukraine were already eligible for membership of the EU and NATO. In 2010, as we know, President Yanukovych excluded Euro-Atlantic security and NATO membership from Ukraine’s national security strategy, but the concepts of European integration and co-operation with NATO have remained and it is likely that Yulia Tymoshenko, if she is re-elected, will want to return to the previous strategy and risk further Russian hostility, reminiscent of former President Saakashvili in Georgia.

Let us not forget the bigger picture in which Russia has to live up to its international responsibilities. The Syrian uprising this week has entered its fourth year unresolved, and the parties still have to come to the table. The Iran negotiations are still delicate. We need the Russians if we are to make progress in these areas. I do not agree with previous speakers that we should detach them from the G8 altogether. The action in Crimea was illegal but there is little we can do about it now. The question asked by the noble Lord, Lord Campbell-Savours, on Kosovo is pertinent. Although the noble Lord is no longer in his place, I hope the Minister will spend a little time on that. It is of course President Putin’s own argument, and we must be careful in making the comparison, because the situation in Kosovo was, at a time of civil war, completely different.

In the mean time, while the interim Government of Ukraine wait for the May elections, every effort must be made—preferably through the OSCE and the new contact group which is being proposed—to support it and contain both Russian and Ukrainian battalions within their own borders. However, the more effective weapons are economic. Chancellor Merkel has taken a surprisingly tough line, accusing the Kremlin of following the law of the jungle and Mr Putin of living “in another world”. She is strongly insisting on new sanctions in the face of, it seems, at least two-thirds of Germans, who have serious doubts about their effectiveness.

While Germany remains the powerhouse of Europe, German companies will continue to trade with Russia and oligarchs will continue to visit their dachas in Baden Baden. France and Italy, not least as arms suppliers, are likely to make the same argument. Therefore, it is going to be a slow process. Sanctions will be pushed mainly by the United States, but Europe will more likely follow the market and select sanctions, which will only puncture its relationship—at least, that is my prediction. After all, Russia’s trade with Europe is more than 10 times that of the US, and the EU is unlikely to throw that away.

London has already lost a lot of Russian business in the scramble to anticipate sanctions. Would this not be an ideal time to review our dubious reputation as a money-laundering capital, as the noble Lord, Lord Chidgey, has already said, and identify the banks and companies that are living off illegal Russian investments and the laundered billions stashed away by Yanukovych and his family? Can the Minister please explain why this money could not be returned to Ukraine to support much-needed structural reforms alongside the new loans, or can the Government produce any other financial package for this purpose? What can the Government do through legislation to strengthen anti-money-laundering controls through the Financial Conduct Authority and other City watchdogs? Have any suspicious transactions in relation to Ukraine been reported to the FCA hitherto, and how can these be further investigated?

However the political and military crisis develops, what the latest power struggle comes down to in the end is, of course, aid and debt, and whether the EU and the IMF can afford to make up loans to Ukraine originally promised by Russia. If Russia turns down the energy tap, Germany and others must consider alternative gas supplies, which may not be immediately available from the US but they will be elsewhere. Ukraine at least has enough reserves of gas to get through to the elections.

Once our frantic diplomatic activity has achieved a stalemate, and perhaps, with luck, OSCE observers are in place, as usual it will be the markets that decide the future.

Syria and the Middle East

Earl of Sandwich Excerpts

Thursday 27th February 2014 Lords Chamber

[The Earl of Sandwich (CB)]

My Lords, I agree with a lot of what the noble Lord, Lord Soley, has said, especially about Russia. Syria’s collapse into civil war is the whole world’s concern. This country, having a lot of experience in the Middle East, has played a leading role, not least, as my noble friend Lord Maginnis said, in getting it wrong at least once. My chief concern today is Britain’s reputation not just as a Security Council member but as a host country to refugees from Syria. I offer no political solutions to the crisis itself but I know that, of all people in the world, Lakhdar Brahimi has the qualities and the experience to solve it, and it is hard to imagine anyone else equalling him. I am sure that my noble friend Lord Williams will agree with that because he has already said it. I would only advise Her Majesty’s Government to do their utmost to keep Russia and Iran on side if any progress is to be made. There, I agree with the noble Lord, Lord Lamont, and my noble friend Lord Wright, who, incidentally, mentioned the important question of the settlements, which is tending to get ignored.

The desperation of Palestinians in the besieged camp of Yarmouk in Damascus has already been mentioned. Access to humanitarian aid is, as always, the vital issue. The international community has failed again to deliver aid where it is needed. Médecins du Monde, Chatham House and others have made practical suggestions for local ceasefires and improved access for the relief agencies through the UN and the ICRC. This remains an important priority for our Government, even if we cannot yet achieve a lasting peace. If the noble Baroness has any detail on that, I would be grateful to hear it. Aid workers are running enormous risks in Syria, and we need to do much more to support them.

We have been generous with humanitarian aid, as we would expect, being one of the world’s foremost aid givers. I do not quarrel with the amount we are giving but I do question our basic philosophy, which is to support the neighbouring countries rather than a wider programme of world involvement and resettlement. At first sight, this policy of supporting the neighbouring countries seems sensible because the ties between Syria and its neighbours are considerable and refuge appeared to be temporary at first. Turkey’s welcome to the earliest refugees in particular stands out as an example. But these neighbours are now stretched to the limit, as we have heard, and as a result the UN is looking to the long term.

Syrians in northern Iraq have already been living in abandoned houses and even animal shelters for two years—up to 20 people per home without proper nutrition. Many who are out of reach of international aid depend on the generosity of their Kurdish hosts where food may be already scarce. A Christian Aid visitor, for example, found refugees crowding around a vehicle carrying trays of cooked rice and chicken, all provided by the local people from their own resources. We tend to forget that in these situations. On top of this many displaced Iraqis are now fleeing northwards to escape newly escalating violence engendered by the al-Qaeda groups and freelance militia, both Sunni and Shia. Lebanon is also carrying a huge burden on top of its own problems. Many Syrians who arrive in Lebanon after long journeys, often without money or possessions, cannot reach UN protection and depend completely on the help of local Orthodox churches and charities which also help with health and education. Refugees who are bombed out of their homes and schools may also need psychosocial support to help them cope with the emotional impact of living through conflict. In Jordan most services to refugees are said to be close to breaking point.

I can well remember the warm reception given in the late 1970s to the Vietnamese boat people after the wars and massacres of the Vietnam War and its aftermath in Indo-China. As a country we responded well to UN and charity appeals and churches and communities all over the UK were alerted. I am sure most of us remember this. I was on the staff of Christian Aid at that time and I recall that thousands of people were accommodated with British families and that it was an efficiently run operation. What a contrast with Syria today. Here we have nearly 2.5 million refugees in four neighbouring countries, many overcrowded and undernourished, and thousands applying for resettlement in Europe. They have little prospect of returning home and yet European countries are not exactly jumping forward with offers. The UNHCR is asking for 30,000 places this year and 100,000 long-term. Our Prime Minister said three weeks ago that we must act urgently but we have negotiated a figure of only 500 out of the 18,800 places offered by 20 countries. Germany alone is said to be receiving 11,000. Here we may remember for a moment Chancellor Merkel’s powerful appeal to European nations to work even more closely together, and this applies to asylum as much as everything else. It is true that in the year up to last September the UK accepted 1,100 Syrians refugees, which is the third highest number after Germany and Sweden, and the Home Secretary says that 3,500 are already in the UK. But none of those was actually invited; they somehow managed to get here after an exhausting journey of weeks or months.

So what has happened since the 1970s? Wars and massacres continue and the suffering and risk from chemical weapons is equally serious, if not more so. Was there anything special about the Vietnam War and Pol Pot’s Cambodia, or about the vulnerability of the Vietnamese who took to sea to persuade us to be more hospitable? Syrian families are, if anything, more easily adaptable to British home life, and their standard of living in many cases was previously comparable to that of many people in the UK. I cannot answer these questions. I know that the level of immigration is now much higher than it was then and that that has affected our sense of hospitality. A combination of migrations from eastern Europe and the troubles of the Middle East and north Africa have generated new fears in the minds of some of us that this country is losing its intrinsic character and culture. These fears, of course, are groundless because we have absorbed migrations over many centuries and indeed we depend on them. None of that should affect our attitude to genuine refugees who are in a quite separate category. They are not deliberately choosing a new life elsewhere but are reluctantly fleeing war, persecution and hunger.

I know that this is not primarily the Minister’s problem but it does belong in our overall response to the crisis in Syria. The only question I would put to her today is about Greece and its frontiers. Are the Government satisfied that the FRONTEX programme, supported by the European Union, is providing a secure border with Turkey? We hear many conflicting stories about that. Would she describe recent reported actions by the Greek Government against the Syrian boat people as refoulement, or as sensible immigration policy?

Ukraine: Demonstrations

Earl of Sandwich Excerpts

Tuesday 10th December 2013 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

My noble friend makes an important point. We are engaged with both the Government and the opposition. I stress that with regard to the association agreement, and in terms of a potential IMF programme that may happen in Ukraine in 2014, conditionality is important. Those conditions are not placed upon Ukraine—and, indeed, Georgia and Moldova, which did make progress in Vilnius—because we are trying to be awkward but because we feel that these are fundamental reforms which are in their interest and set them on the path to much more constructive engagement and a more balanced economy.

[The Earl of Sandwich (CB)]

My Lords, does the noble Baroness agree that the media oligarchs have an enormous influence on the way things go? Does she think that they are becoming more sympathetic to the opposition?

[Baroness Warsi]

I have not been following the media inside Ukraine but I am aware that journalists have been targeted as part of the government crackdown on some of the protests. As we can see from the hundreds of thousands of people who have taken to the streets in Kiev and elsewhere, opinion in Ukraine is divided. The views of its leadership are not the views of the street.

Nepal: Elections

Earl of Sandwich Excerpts

Thursday 21st November 2013 Lords Chamber

Asked by

[The Earl of Sandwich]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what is their assessment of the impact of the result of the elections to the Constituent Assembly in Nepal on 19 November.

[The Senior Minister of State, Department for Communities and Local Government & Foreign and Commonwealth Office (Baroness Warsi) (Con)]

My Lords, the elections took place on Tuesday and the results are still coming in. The UK agrees with the provisional findings of the official observer missions that the election process in Nepal has been broadly credible. The announcement of the final results may take several weeks. These elections are necessary for Nepal to reach a durable, democratic and inclusive constitutional settlement. That is why the UK has been working to support them politically, technically and financially.

[The Earl of Sandwich (CB)]

My Lords, Britain and Nepal are approaching 200 years of friendship. I know that the Government have been generous in assisting in the elections and in international development. However, there are some urgent tasks coming up. Nepal needs a new constitution, a new independent human rights commission to address human rights violations going back to the civil war, and to move forward on many other fronts. How is the UK going to help to move Nepal through a peaceful transition to constitutional democracy?

[Baroness Warsi]

The noble Earl has asked some important questions. The Government’s view is that achieving a credible election is the first step towards moving to a much bigger peacebuilding exercise. The Government have committed £14 million to these elections—for election preparation, for holding the elections and to create the right environment for free and credible elections. That has been done alongside a significant contribution to peacebuilding both through DfID programmes and FCO-funded projects. We will continue to provide that support, and to support the drafting of a constitution which will underpin that peacebuilding. We will work alongside other development partners to continue to provide support once the new assembly has been formed.

--- Later in debate ---

[Baroness Warsi]

My noble friend always makes interesting points. However much I thoroughly enjoy coming to the Dispatch Box almost on a daily basis, I do so in response to the questions of your Lordships’ House, and I will continue to do that as long as there is interest.

[The Earl of Sandwich]

My Lords, going back to the Question itself, can the noble Baroness do anything to discourage the Government of Nepal from contemplating new electoral boundaries which may be along ethnic lines and would certainly be a diversion from the other priorities?

[Baroness Warsi]

This is, of course, a live debate in Nepal, but I think that we can take some comfort from the fact that voting purely along ethnic lines was not in the forefront of people’s minds when they were polled. People were concerned with everyday issues such as unemployment and electricity. That was the indication of the public and we hope that that is how their leaders will respond.