Western Balkans: Dayton Peace Agreement

Earl of Sandwich Excerpts

Tuesday 17th October 2023 Lords Chamber

[The Earl of Sandwich (CB)]

My Lords, once again, the noble Baroness has tabled an important debate. I thank her sincerely for this opportunity and for bringing such valuable experience to the House. After all, as she said, we were at one time a spearhead of enlargement of the EU and we are now in danger of losing our enthusiasm. Back in 1997, all our political parties had long been agreed that we did not want a small, tidy, wealthy Europe. As an EU member we wanted to reach out to countries still recovering from their Soviet past and hoping to join in a Europe-wide economic recovery. Of course, there were benefits for us in doing that as well.

By then, war had broken out between Serbia and its satellites in former Yugoslavia, and it was clear that we had an urgent new role as peacekeeper and NATO member. This time the policy was called “the responsibility to protect”. Much has been written about R2P and much of it has been written off as outdated. It was only formally adopted in 2005 and it failed in Libya. Nevertheless, it was one of the most important doctrines introduced by the UN and we can all recognise its value at the time of the Bosnia and Kosovo genocides. Criminal tribunals were set up and cases are still ongoing, as the noble Baroness mentioned.

There are many other examples of protection or attempted protection from genocide around the world. The Minister is in a better position than any of us to know how many there are, such as Darfur in Sudan. Unfortunately, we must accept that the UN is no longer capable of reaching out in the way that it did. In the case of the Balkans, only NATO has had the muscle to contain trouble. Do we still have the commitment to R2P in the Balkans? Are we as ready as we were to send troops to Bosnia and Kosovo to prevent the worst happening again? I hope that we are.

The incidents in Kosovo during the last few weeks have certainly justified a swift NATO response, which they got. We can all understand how easy it is for the Serbian president to stir up trouble. He has been doing it for years, with or without Russian advice, following his predecessor—Slobodan Milošević. It used to be called “dirty tricks” but that is too kind a phrase. Serbia took advantage of a very poor decision by Kosovo in May to impose non-Serbian mayors in the north after a turnout of less than 4%. The result was a huge crowd of protesting Serbs, many of them armed, and clashes led to injuries to over 30 fully armed KFOR troops. Then came the incident at the monastery in Banjska last month, when Kosovo confronted about 30 armed Serbs attacking a police post. Three of them and a Kosovar policeman were killed. This seemed to Washington to be part of an insidious and gradual movement of Serbian troops closer to the border, although Serbia denies this and has since withdrawn some. Nevertheless, it was unmistakably a hint of the threat of a Donetsk factor, whereby protection of your kith and kin in another country is a justifiable reason for invasion. Well, it is not—not in any existing international law—but that does not concern Russia.

NATO moved fast during the operation in May, but this was not always the case. The Kosovo war was not anticipated and came as a second barrel after the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Dayton accords did not even mention Kosovo and at least one historian believes that they contributed to the collapse of the Albanian Government and the outbreak of war.

Therefore, what should be the political solution? There is a plan, brokered by Brussels, to give the Serbs more autonomy in Kosovo through an association of Serb-majority municipalities. This was even agreed by the two leaders in Ohrid in March but rejected in May by both of them. Vučić fears that it would assist Kosovo towards full independence, while the Kosovan Prime Minister, Albin Kurti, now sees it as a path to the pattern set by Republika Srpska. The governance arrangements in Bosnia and Herzegovina have been carefully constructed but they are difficult to deal with, as we have heard from the noble Lord, Lord Alderdice, regarding Paddy Ashdown’s efforts.

Brussels will just have to provide more reassurance. The route to peace can only be part of the wider EU-sponsored dialogue alongside Serbia’s application. We were one of the architects of this dialogue. It is harder now, Kosovo being some way behind as a candidate owing to its uncertain status, but it is necessary. The majority of Serbs would like to live comfortable lives as Europeans, whatever border they live behind. That can be the only way forward for both countries. Slow and difficult as it is, we the UK must stay as close as possible to the EU formula, and re-address the balance of troops—as the noble Baroness mentioned.

There are many reasons for stability in the Balkans, migration being one of them. With the Ukraine war dragging on, it has become even more urgent to get the formula right, yet I fear inaction may be the most likely outcome of all.