Ukraine

Earl of Minto Excerpts

Friday 26th January 2024 Lords Chamber

[The Minister of State, Ministry of Defence (The Earl of Minto) (Con)]

My Lords, I am very grateful for the constructive, thoughtful and high-quality debate today, as indeed one would expect from so many distinguished former Defence Ministers, heads of our services, senior diplomats and many other noble Lords with relevant experience and interests. I too congratulate my noble friend Lord Camoys on his excellent maiden speech. As somebody relatively new to the role, I have certainly found the thoughtful and insightful contributions of noble Lords immensely valuable and broad-ranging.

I continue to be moved by the enduring feeling of support for Ukraine, not only in this Chamber but internationally. As just as one example, I had the pleasure of attending a charity art exhibition last night hosted by our Canadian friends to raise funds for the people of Ukraine. I spoke with representatives from Japan, Bangladesh, Qatar, Ukraine and Canada, to name a few, and without exception they all expressed admiration for the UK’s stance in its support for Ukraine.

I shall recap briefly how we got here. Next month, as many noble Lords have mentioned, marks two years since Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine and fully a decade since he invaded and annexed Crimea and sowed division in the Donbass. As Russian forces massed on the border for their assault on Kyiv, Putin believed the Ukrainian army would be overrun in the matter of days, but President Zelensky declined to go quietly. Instead, and in no small part thanks to UK training and weaponry, Russian soldiers were forced to retreat. Ukrainian forces have pushed the invading Russians out of more than half the territory that they stole.

Given that we are still in the middle of winter, it is unsurprising that our most recent assessment concludes that the conflict remains largely static, with both sides conducting operations across the front line. However, the deputy chief of mission at the Ukrainian embassy said last night that what is going on is definitely not stalemate—far from it. Intense battles are being waged constantly, and he is worried that the allies do not fully appreciate this, which is a very interesting perspective, particularly in the light of my noble friend Lady Meyer’s comments. I confirm the point made by the noble Baroness, Lady Brinton, and the noble Lord, Lord Purvis of Tweed, about the Ukraine parliament’s solidarity and the resilience of the population—it was confirmed by the noble Lord, Lord Glasman —and their determination to prevail. The deputy chief of mission was absolutely determined about that last night.

Here is what we know. Putin’s imperial ambitions have suffered a severe blow, and the West will continue to drive this point into Putin’s mind—I echo the wise words of the noble Lord, Lord Robertson of Port Ellen. Around 300,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded, and Russia’s much-vaunted Black Sea fleet has scattered eastwards. As for Putin himself, he suffers the dual humiliation of an attempted coup and being wanted by the International Criminal Court.

The Russian economy is reeling from the most severe package of sanctions ever imposed on a major state—a problem exacerbated by the Kremlin’s need to keep nigh on 400,000 troops in Ukraine and spend nearly 40% of public expenditure on defence and security, just to keep hold of what Putin has taken. The noble Lord, Lord McDonald of Salford, makes a very good point on the Russian appetite for risk, with a long war expected and Ukraine fighting with western equipment.

Ukrainian forces, on the other hand, have been able to conduct pinpoint strikes against Russian military targets deep in Crimea—recently downing, as we heard, the A-50 Mainstay radar detection aircraft over the Sea of Azov and damaging a command-and-control Coot aircraft. They have destroyed more than 15% of Russia’s Black Sea naval fleet, enabling them to re-establish a critical maritime corridor for exports in the Black Sea, particularly for grain to feed some of the poorest on the planet, which is so important to Black Sea trade, as the noble Lord, Lord Glasman, reminded us.

Meanwhile, NATO and the freedom-loving democracies have been galvanised. As we have heard, the alliance is now larger and stronger than ever. We are just beginning Operation Steadfast Defender, in which some 20,000 British personnel will be taking part.

But we must never forget the terrible toll this conflict has taken on Ukraine. Many thousands have been killed. Critical national infrastructure has been damaged or destroyed, and millions have been displaced. Parts of the country have faced ecological catastrophe, and the east and south-east of the country remain spliced in two by an 800 kilometre-long heavily mined and fortified Russian line. This is all a tragic reminder of why it is so essential for Ukraine to win.

Equally, it presents a dire warning to the West of what will happen if we do not face down Putin’s threat. If we do not prevail, he will surely take this as an opportunity to go for further aggressive, illegal action. Our challenge as we enter 2024 is to ensure that the West and our partners across the world do not lose resolve but continue giving Ukraine all that it needs to overcome the invader.

The Ukrainian armed forces are not going to give in any time soon. They remain well motivated, increasingly well trained, well led and increasingly well equipped. The UK is determined to keep providing Ukraine with what it needs to prevail and ultimately triumph, however long it may take. European support, temporarily held up, will hopefully be released by Hungary dropping its objection, to be concluded at the EU Council on 1 February.

Ten years ago, we were there to help train Ukrainian forces as the storm gathered. A decade later, we are still by their side, providing support and training across a wide range of skills.

I will now address some of the key issues raised by your Lordships. If I do not address every question in the allotted time, I commit to a full written follow-up.

First, several noble Lords mentioned national expenditure on defence. This is a very important point, of which everybody in the Government is acutely aware. The Prime Minister is absolutely clear on the direction of travel and has stated that 2.5% is a target he intends to achieve once it is fiscally advisable to do so. But there are other constraints that the Government have to determine and that must influence the absolute amount. They include the whole question, raised today, of industrial capacity. All this could not be more in focus.

Linked to that, my noble friend Lord Vaizey of Didcot mentioned the MoD working with SMEs in defence, what level of appetite there is for risk and influence and the temptation to rely on the larger partners. I do not think that is accurate. In my experience in the Ministry of Defence so far, there is a plethora of SMEs working either directly with the ministry or for the large organisations that then ultimately work for the ministry. It is a very integrated supply chain, so far as I can see.

The noble Lord, Lord Anderson of Swansea, and several others issued the warning about Ukraine’s European Union and NATO membership. This is obviously high on the agenda, but must be dependent on events.

The question of visas for the Ukrainians already in this country and the involvement of the Home Office and DWP was raised by the noble Baroness, Lady Suttie, the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Newcastle and my noble friend Lord Shinkwin. The noble Baroness, Lady Taylor of Stevenage, rightly pointed out the tremendous efforts that local authorities and families have made to welcome displaced Ukrainian refugees. I would be delighted to meet and discuss this and, as far as the Home Office is concerned, we will take that message back and make it absolutely clear.

There was a specific point from the noble Lord, Lord Purvis of Tweed, about development funds. The Government have issued a White Paper on international development and, again, the Government’s strategic direction is clear.

In Kyiv earlier this month, the Prime Minister upped our financial commitment to military aid to record levels by announcing a £2.5 billion military aid package for the year ahead; that is a £200 million uplift on the previous two years, in a period of clear financial stricture—a bold commitment. A longer-term commitment, while encompassed in the agreement recently signed by the Prime Minister and the President, depends very much on what the Ukrainian military plans become. It will mobilise the UK’s best military expertise and defence capabilities, including in air defence, artillery ammunition, long-range missiles and maritime security, in support of Ukraine’s self-defence and its battle to regain its territory. Everything promised last year has been sent to Ukraine. Whether Ukraine deploys it is a decision for its forces, not us.

At least £200 million will be spent on producing and procuring thousands of military drones for Ukraine, including surveillance, sea and long-range strike drones. Having been the first to deliver NLAW anti-tank missiles, modern battle tanks and Storm Shadow long-range missiles, we are now becoming the largest supplier of drones to Ukraine from any nation, and we expect to manufacture most of them here in the UK. This contribution comes hot on the heels of 200 air defence missiles that we gifted in December 2023.

I am acutely aware that your Lordships are rightly concerned about the maintenance and currency of UK weapon stockpiles. In 2023, the Government allocated £2.5 billion specifically to address the issue. Any restocking must be a holistic exercise, not a like-for-like one; we no longer require some of the weapons that we have gifted, as weapons development is, by nature, dynamic. I confirm that orders have been placed across replenishment and updating Starstreak high-velocity missiles, new versions of high-velocity missiles, several thousand anti-tank weapons in the next two and a half years with 500 already delivered, 155-millimetre artillery shells, 30-millimetre cannon rounds, and 5.65-millimetre rifle ammunition. The point is well made by the noble Baroness, Lady Neville-Jones, the noble Lord, Lord Browne of Ladyton, and the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, that this is such an important issue that it needs to be front of mind at almost the entire time that defence is being discussed. The Government are acutely aware of this issue.

On the humanitarian support side, our support goes far beyond weaponry. We have given Ukraine £4.7 billion of non-military support, including £357 million in humanitarian assistance to Ukraine and the region; a £99 million fiscal support grant through the World Bank trust fund; £140 million to support Ukraine’s energy security and resilience; and £2.5 million for Ukraine’s domestic prosecution of international crimes. We have also arranged £4.2 billion in fiscal support through World Bank loan guarantees. In total, the latest package will take the UK’s military, humanitarian and economic support committed for Ukraine to almost £12 billion across three years. We should be immensely proud of this as a nation.

Significantly, our investment in Ukraine is for the long term, which is why the Prime Minister and President Zelensky signed an historic security co-operation agreement earlier this month. It formalises our assistance across a wide range of areas, from intelligence sharing, cybersecurity and medical and military training to maritime assistance and defence industrial co-operation. This represents a first step in an unshakeable 100-year partnership between our two countries.

Putin’s invasion has galvanised NATO, solidifying its position as a truly united alliance. We hope that that situation continues; the threat of what might happen in the United States is an issue that we have to live with. This is evidenced by the Defence Secretary announcing earlier this month that the UK will contribute 20,000 personnel across all domains to take part in NATO’s Exercise Steadfast Defender, one of the alliance’s largest deployments since the end of the Cold War, involving 30 member countries—including Finland—plus Sweden. Your Lordships may like to know that the Foreign Secretary is in Turkey today, and hopefully that situation will also get approved.

At the NATO summit last year, 30 countries promised to sign long-term pledges of security support to Ukraine. In Kyiv earlier this month, the Prime Minister was the first NATO leader to deliver on that promise, signing the century-long security pact with President Zelensky. The noble and gallant Lord, Lord Houghton of Richmond, made an interesting and valid point about NATO’s role in both the immediate future and future deployment to establish the clarity of deterrence.

We have also taken a number of steps to galvanise support for Ukraine from our allies. We established the International Fund for Ukraine to bolster and speed the acquisition of intelligence, surveillance, electronic warfare and air defence capabilities. To date, it has already attracted £896 million of pledges and enabled 25 separate defence contracts worth £328 million to be signed. We have worked with the 50-nation Ukraine Defense Contact Group, to which the Defence Secretary spoke earlier this week—noble Lords have probably read the words he used—to co-ordinate and bolster support on land, at sea and in the air, encouraging all members to step up their support and commitment to Ukraine.

Alongside his Norwegian counterpart, the Defence Secretary also launched the maritime capability coalition in December 2023 to strengthen Ukraine’s ability to operate at sea—so important in this war. The coalition now has a dozen member countries, with others interested. It will provide Ukraine with ships, deliver long-term support and infrastructure to bolster security in the Black Sea and ensure that Ukraine can protect its territorial waters, which is so crucial for Ukrainian exports.

We have continued to deliver a massive programme of training to Ukrainian forces here in the UK through Operation Interflex; we have expanded our capacity to do so through co-operation, with 10 allied nations taking part. As a result, we have trained more than 34,000 Ukrainian personnel in the UK since June 2022 and more than 60,000 since Russia launched its initial invasion in 2014. Another 10,000 will go through the process during the first six months of this year.

Furthermore, six Ukrainian pilots have been trained in the UK and are now learning to fly F-16s in Denmark. A further 26 Ukrainian pilots are currently training here, with more expected to arrive in the coming months. Our forces are also engaged in other varied training programmes with our allies across medical, marine and engineering specialities.

On the question of sanctions, with our international partners, we have unleashed the largest and most severe package of sanctions on Russia ever imposed on a major economy. The unprecedented package of sanctions that we have implemented, alongside our allies, has deprived Putin of more than $400 billion. We continually look at ways to further enhance these restrictive measures, and we are clamping down on those who seek to circumnavigate them.

The Government have committed £50 million to support our new economic deterrence initiative, which strengthens our diplomatic and economic tools to improve sanctions implementation and enforcement. The noble Lord, Lord Collins of Highbury, made points about frozen assets. That is under legal consideration, along with the options available and sanctions evasion. I will write in detail on that matter. The new Office of Trade Sanctions Implementation will further strengthen the enforcement of our trade sanctions and ensure that the UK’s sanctions remain as impactful as possible. My noble friend Lady Neville-Jones rightly identifies the evident risk of pushing Putin’s Russia towards other totalitarian regimes, such as China and North Korea. There is always a balance in making sure that sanctions are not counterproductive; that has to be kept in mind.

The question of international law and war crimes is an enormous subject. Ukraine’s office of the procurator —sorry, the prosecutor-general; that shows where I come from—has recorded more than 120,000 incidents of alleged war crimes, including murder, rape, torture and the deportation of children. It is vital that Russia is held to account for its actions. Since February 2022, we have provided an additional £2 million to the International Criminal Court to enable it to collect evidence and support survivors. The noble Lord, Lord Browne of Ladyton, will note that the ICC prosecutor has issued warrants against Putin and the Russian children’s commissioner. We have also established the Atrocity Crimes Advisory Group, alongside the EU and the US, to support Ukrainian investigators and prosecutors.

The noble Baroness, Lady Kennedy of The Shaws, who does excellent work with children, rightly identifies the appalling stories of subversion and identity destruction and the plethora of laws being flouted by the Putin regime. My noble friend Lord Ahmad is meeting the Ukraine prosecutor-general next week and has committed to bringing this up.

On the question of rebuilding, since February 2022, the UK has committed over £4.7 billion in non-military support, including fiscal support for Ukraine’s vital public services and bilateral assistance. The UK hosted the Ukraine Recovery Conference in June 2023, raising over $60 billion towards Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction, including a €50 billion EU facility; $3 billion of UK guarantees to World Bank lending; UK commitments of up to £250 million of new capital for British International Investment to leverage private investment; and £20 million for the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency trust fund to expand war risk insurance for Ukraine.

I must admit that I am not sure I agree with the noble Earl, Lord Oxford and Asquith, about the strength of rebuilding purpose, though I appreciate his point about the legal environment being paramount to allow and encourage investment. However, I agree with the noble Lord, Lord Bilimoria, that British business is indeed a force for good.

My noble friend Lord Risby made a valid point about the current investment and security guarantees. In October 2023, the UK signed a statement of intent on war risk with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development to facilitate UK companies trading with and investing in Ukraine to help it rebuild. I will write to my noble friend with the latest situation on investor protection and transparency.

Importantly, on 15 January 2024, the UK and Ukraine launched a new UK-Ukraine TechBridge, which aims to support economic resilience for Ukraine while bringing benefits to the tech sectors in both countries, which is so important, as my noble friend Lord Vaizey rightly confirmed.

We will certainly reflect on the suggestion made by more than one noble Lord of having a special envoy to Ukraine.

The noble Baroness, Lady Goudie, made an important point about gender equality and the involvement of women in the recovery, rebuilding and reconstruction of Ukraine. I will definitely take up this point at every opportunity.

[Lord Vaizey of Didcot (Con)]

My noble friend was very reassuring on how the Ministry of Defence works with small enterprises in defence tech, if I can call it that. I would be most grateful if he could find time to write to me to give some examples of the small businesses the MoD is working with, and of how it has changed its procurement practices to facilitate that.

[The Earl of Minto (Con)]

I certainly will. The International Fund for Ukraine is a good example of how that has been working.

In conclusion, I hugely appreciate the wisdom and expertise that colleagues have expressed. I am equally heartened by the solidarity shown from across all these Benches. Although we face this serious threat, the truth is that, as our Ukrainian partners have demonstrated so clearly, we are far stronger as a country when we stand together.

As we approach the 10th anniversary of Putin’s invasion of Crimea and the second anniversary of his botched full-scale invasion, it is time to redouble our resolve while showing genuine gratitude to all UK forces who have been engaged in this struggle. As the noble Earl, Lord Oxford and Asquith, explained, we must be clear about—and make clear to Putin—the theoretical yet flawed ideology of his position on the challenge of this endeavour. Ukraine’s fight is indeed our fight. It is a fight for freedom, which is suddenly fragile, as the noble Baroness, Lady Anderson of Stoke-on-Trent, so eloquently put it. It is a fight for democracy and for the preservation of the rules-based order clearly promoted by the noble Lord, Lord Purvis of Tweed, which has given us an unprecedented period of peace and prosperity.

Ukraine is effectively fighting for us, as the noble Lord, Lord Coaker, so eloquently confirmed. The media gaze might have turned in part towards the Middle East, but we must never take our eye off Ukraine’s struggle for freedom. That is why the UK continues to step up, showing the leadership necessary, showing a partnership to last a century and continuing to urge our allies to step up alongside us, so that Putin can be left in no doubt that we—all of us who value freedom—are in this for the long term until we prevail. This year, Ukraine’s fate may well be decided. Our clear resolve is to ensure that it is decided in Ukraine’s favour and in ours.

Motion agreed.