Iran
Debate between Earl of Courtown and Lord Howell of Guildford(5 years, 2 months ago)
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The Earl of Courtown
My Lords, the noble Lord speaks from great experience in the region and in this subject—far more than I have, I must say. He makes some very good points about how we can develop a strategy that will force Iran to the table so that we can de-escalate for the long-term safely and properly, and bring safety and security to the region as a whole. His points are very valid.
The noble Lord also asked about the oil tanker that was detained in Gibraltar. The decision to release the ship was made by the Government of Gibraltar with, of course, our input. They made that decision based on formal assurances from Iran that the “Grace I” would not deliver oil to Syria. Iran breaking those assurances represents an unacceptable violation of international norms and a morally bankrupt course of action. It is apparent that there are only two established oil refineries in Assad regime-controlled Syria—in Baniyas and Homs. The European Union sanctioned both in 2014 for providing financial support to the Assad regime.
Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)
My Lords, I do not want to keep your Lordships from your dinners, but my noble friend Lord Marlesford was absolutely right: we are dealing with not just a Government but a whole number of factions, many empowered by electronic weaponry and electronic communications on a scale that did not exist even 10 years ago. It is a completely new situation. Do we realise that in this new situation talking about a war—“Shall we go to war?”—is an absurdity? In this digital world, a war settles nothing. Low-intensity and low-profile terrorism will continue indefinitely.
Have Her Majesty’s Government drawn two very important conclusions from this whole saga, including the attack on Abqaiq? First, the Saudi defences are incredibly weak, despite its enormous expenditure on conventional weapons, which will not do in this situation. Secondly, have we all noticed that the oil markets, although they spiked for a moment, immediately fell back, the reason being that the world oil supply has changed? Shale oil has changed everything and the significance of Middle East oil has been vastly reduced.
The Earl of Courtown
My Lords, my noble friend makes some good points. On areas of conflict and how to react to them, this is another area in which to talk about how cybersecurity, whatever it may be—whether drones or missiles and how to guard against them—moves apace. It is always a case of catching up to make proper defences in these areas. Yes, as far as the Iranian Government and those involved in government are concerned, there are many different parties to it. That is one reason why the sanctions imposed are against individuals and individual organisations, rather than the country itself. We currently have 250 EU sanction listings in place against Iran for nuclear-related and ballistic missile activity, including against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in its entirety.
Sterling
Debate between Earl of Courtown and Lord Howell of Guildford
The Earl of Courtown
No, my Lords, I have not read Mr Haldane’s speech, but I will pass it on to my colleagues in the department. However, there is something that the noble Lord should acknowledge regarding the ONS statistics on productivity: he will be aware that the Bean review reported in March 2016, that the Government supported its recommendations, and that the ONS has so far made good progress in acting on them, to ensure that we have proper productivity figures available for our examination.
Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)
My Lords, does my noble friend agree that in the digital age and in a predominantly service economy, as the UK is, it is increasingly hard to measure accurately the notion of productivity? Does he therefore agree that all these discussions and comments need to be treated with great caution and balance?
The Earl of Courtown
My noble friend is quite right, as always. He mentioned the digital age that we are in, and of course noble Lords will remember that we have the £400 million digital infrastructure fund, which is unlocking £1 billion for full-fibre broadband to connect more homes so that they can act upon this digital age.
Turkey: Russian Missiles
Debate between Earl of Courtown and Lord Howell of Guildford
The Earl of Courtown
I have no information on that at present. The noble and gallant Lord makes a valid point on the worry about the systems that the Turkish military is taking up. The S-400 is a flagship weapon system designed to counter stealth aircraft. It will deny large swathes of territory to enemy aircraft, and this is a worrying position.
Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)
This is a challenge for the whole of NATO. Have HMG discussed with the American authorities the decision to block F-35 supplies? It raises fundamental questions about whether Turkey can remain in the alliance and, if it does not, how we can reconfigure to meet the new challenges, which are becoming increasingly dangerous.
The Earl of Courtown
My noble friend makes a good point. As I said earlier, Turkey is now excluded from the F-35 programme, both as a partner in its manufacture and as an end user. The noble Lord, Lord West, also asked whether there are opportunities for BAE Systems. The MoD is considering how the suspension of Turkey from the F-35 programme will affect our costs, delivery timeline and possible opportunities.
Export Licences: High Court Judgment
Debate between Earl of Courtown and Lord Howell of Guildford
Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)
My Lords, the noble Baroness, Lady Northover, reminds us that this judgment has similarities with the recommendations of your Lordships’ International Relations Committee when we examined the subject some months ago. We then argued, as is implicit in the judgment, that this is a matter not of suspension but of process. In our report, we argued that there needed to be more rigorous checks on export licences in future, given particular horrific incidents in Yemen of a kind which, sadly, continue and have shocked the entire world. We also argued in that short report that we needed to be less reliant on Saudi and local sources for verification and inspection of incidents. In the Statement, the noble Earl mentioned the processes by which decisions are reached when terrible things happen on whether British armaments could be in any way involved. We took evidence to the effect that there was a rather heavy reliance on local reports from the Saudi region and the Saudi authorities, and suggested that that was too great and that other sources of checking and verification would be an improvement. Can the Minister assure me that, whatever the legal outcome of this process, with the appeal and all the rest, those common-sense moves for much more rigorous checks on export licences and less reliance on the say-so of authentication coming from Saudi Arabia itself will be made?
The Earl of Courtown
My Lords, I thank my noble friend, who has extensive knowledge of the subject, and specifically for his committee’s report. He asks the Government to look again at the whole question of the issue of licences. We will look carefully at that, as well as at the court judgment, which we will consider in particular over the next few weeks. As I said, we will also consider existing licences. We will review all the licences in the light of the court judgment, but the points he made are well taken and I will ensure that the department is aware of them.
Iran Nuclear Deal
Debate between Earl of Courtown and Lord Howell of Guildford(6 years, 6 months ago)
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Lord Howell of Guildford
My Lords, as my noble friend the Minister says, the task now is to persuade the American Administration to work on a new replacement agreement which embraces issues such as ballistic missiles and other destabilising and sinister activities by Iran. We all understand that. When we get on that path—as I hope we do—will he encourage his colleagues to point out two things to the Americans? First, if sanctions are reintroduced on a larger scale they will be immediately undermined by the Chinese, who already supply substantial amounts to Iran. They will soon supply substantial amounts of arms as well, quite aside from the wider dangers that the noble Lord, Lord West, has pointed out. Secondly, under American law the American Government are constrained from taking early and immediate actions and measures which lead to a substantial destabilisation of oil supplies in the oil market. This would certainly happen if Iran had to cut its exports from 2.9 million barrels a day down to fewer than 1 million barrels a day, and the result in oil markets would be chaos.
Iran: Nuclear Deal
Debate between Earl of Courtown and Lord Howell of Guildford
The Earl of Courtown
My Lords, there is common agreement on the E3+3 group as far as the United States is concerned. We expect developments in the coming days and plan to update Parliament when we know the facts, but this is unlikely to be before President Trump has made an announcement. The noble Lord also mentioned the G7 Foreign Ministers meeting. I have not had a readout of that meeting as yet, but I understand that this was discussed.
Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)
My Lords, in agreeing with the point of the noble Lord, Lord Campbell, about urgency, does my noble friend accept that this is a question not just for the western alliance but the whole comity of nations concerned with the proliferation of nuclear weapons? It boils down to the simple question: do we or do we not want Iran to develop as a nuclear power, with nuclear weapons, and destabilise the Middle East even further? We recognise that it is doing all sorts of undesirable things in the Middle East, but this is the specific question of nuclear proliferation. Can we be sure that our Ministers and those of our allies will continue to press President Trump to revalidate the agreement, rather than open up a new area of danger in the Middle East?
The Earl of Courtown
My Lords, I can assure my noble friend that we are making every effort to put pressure on the United States Administration to validate this agreement. My noble friend is also right on the proliferation of nuclear weapons—we cannot afford any proliferation of nuclear weapons. I should also add that, so far, this deal is working. Iran has given up two-thirds of its centrifuges and 95% of its uranium stockpile. Our priority is working with the deal and making it deliver for our shared security interests.
Foreign Policy: Support for UK Businesses in Global Trade
Debate between Earl of Courtown and Lord Howell of Guildford
The Earl of Courtown
My Lords, as always with our closest ally, the United States, we have continued relations with its Administration. The Prime Minister’s speech in Florence added new momentum to the negotiations by making a firm commitment on the financial settlement and by proposing a time-limited implementation period in the interests of both the UK and the EU. On the points the noble Lord made about the WTO, I will have to write to him on some of the detail, but in leaving the EU we will need to update the terms of our WTO membership because our commitments are currently applied through the collective EU schedules.
Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)
Will my noble friend accept that expanding trade opportunities nowadays is very much a question of getting in on the new networks and the new global value chains that now dominate world trade, in contrast to only 20 years ago? Will he agree that some of the networks that have sprung up replacing the 20th century ones, such as the ASEAN, the RECP, the SCO and others, are ones in which it is essential for British representation to be more closely involved? Finally, will he agree that our own network of which we are already a member, the Commonwealth, which occupies one-third of the whole of humankind, is also a very valuable starting point in finding gateways into these new trade areas and the great markets of the future?
The Earl of Courtown
My noble friend is quite right about these various groups looking at trading opportunities in the future. In particular he mentioned the Commonwealth. We are committed to working with our friends and allies in the Commonwealth. One must not forget that in March 2017 the International Trade Secretary and the then Minister, my noble friend Lord Price, had lead roles in the first Commonwealth Trade Ministers’ meeting, which brought together more than 35 Commonwealth countries.