Exiting the EU and Transport

Debate between Drew Hendry and Kelvin Hopkins

Wednesday 23rd November 2016 Commons Chamber

[Drew Hendry]

The hon. Gentleman makes a good point. So many issues are facing us that it is very difficult to pick out the single most important item. There are a lot of unanswered questions.

Is the plan to reach an agreement with the EU that the EEA channel will continue to operate in the UK, and that EU member states will allow UK citizens to use the EEA channel in the EU?

Regional airports are vital for connectivity within Scotland, but the reckless gamble with our EU membership has caused great uncertainty for these airports that could have a seriously detrimental impact on our economy. Scotland has a large number of regional airports, many of which are reliant on low-cost airlines and outbound tourism to survive and to be an economic success. The International Air Transport Association predicts that a 12% reduction in sterling would result in a 5% decline in outbound travel, while Ryanair has said that it is scaling back its expansion in the UK.

[Kelvin Hopkins]

Is it not the case that since 23 June, there has been a significant depreciation of sterling and a surge of people coming into Britain to buy things, because everything is cheaper here? Is that not good for businesses in Britain, including those in Scotland?

[Drew Hendry]

I am happy to answer that. When I was a retailer many years ago, the UK Government introduced an increase in VAT. Before that VAT increase hit, there was a rush to the shops to buy goods. After that increase hit, things fell through the floor, and I think we will see a similar effect.

Scotland has a large number of regional airports, many of which are reliant on low-cost airlines and outbound tourism to survive and to be an economic success. As I have said, the International Air Transport Association predicts a reduction in outbound travel. Since the EU referendum, sterling is down 25%. For airports such as Prestwick, it is even more vital that we continue the open skies agreement to maintain the number of outbound passengers, so it is incumbent on the UK Government to give an unequivocal guarantee that the UK will stay in the single aviation market after we are taken out of the EU. With 76% of UK holidays abroad being taken in the EU, outbound tourism is key for the industry. Outbound tourism employs more than 215,000 people across the UK, and it is a key driver in ensuring that our regional airports are successful. Remaining in the open skies single aviation market is vital to ensure that our airports remain economically viable, and low-cost airlines are vital if regional airports are to be a commercial success.

[Drew Hendry]

My hon. Friend makes a good point, and he underlines the theme that I am working on just now. This uncertainty is bad not only for business, but for consumers, passengers and everybody involved.

[Kelvin Hopkins]

The hon. Gentleman talked about exchange rates. I think that relative to the euro, sterling depreciated by far less than 25%. That is crucial, because that is where we have our serious trade imbalance. With the rest of the world, we have relatively good relations. The strength of the dollar has compounded the depreciation of sterling, but that depreciation will be beneficial to British industry, wherever we trade.

[Drew Hendry]

That is the kind of thing that somebody might want to put on the side of a bus. It has been a trait of previous UK Governments to take forever to make key transport decisions, but UK regional airports, including those in Scotland, do not have the luxury of waiting. For the sake of those airports, our businesses and our commuters, the UK Government need to provide a clear and unequivocal guarantee that any post-Brexit aviation agreement will not lead to a loss of investment and connectivity in Scotland if we end up outside the open skies agreement.

The current aviation policy framework sets out that airports cannot apply for a public service obligation or the connectivity fund because of the 60-minute rule, which means that a number of regional airports lose out. The Government’s EU gamble is putting potential investment in Scotland’s regional airports at risk. They need to think again and, in doing so, give regional airports a fighting economic chance.

The problems are not confined to aviation. Our maritime sector faces similar concerns. We have heard a fair bit about ports, but the maritime sector is worth €12 billion annually to the UK economy, and some 240,000 people are employed in the sector in the UK. Fifty-three per cent. of the UK’s imports and 45% of its exports are from the rest of the EU. It is estimated that approximately 3 million jobs in the UK are linked to trade with the rest of the EU. Currently, there is the freedom to trade. OECD rules could preclude any change, in so far as we are talking about the ability of a ship to call at an EU or UK port and to load and unload cargo and passengers, regardless of its flag and regardless of the nationality of its owner. UK-flagged ships could, however, lose their right to operate in the domestic trades of EU member states that maintain flag-based cabotage restrictions.

The British International Freight Association has said that its main concern is potentially losing the benefits of free trade and customs harmonisation with the EU single market:

“A return to tariffs for UK merchandise exports and imports, if this is the outcome...will be detrimental to UK trade with the EU, and may result in a…reduction in UK-EU maritime volume.”

As we have heard, the UK’s port sector is largely privately owned and run in a competitive environment, and is thus very different from those of many other EU member states. Oxera has also said that changes to the costs of trade with the EU are

“likely to affect the volumes and patterns of freight activity at ports, while the need for new customs checks on imports and exports is likely to cause considerable congestion at UK and mainland European ports.”

It suggests that any negative impact could be mitigated through EEA membership or free trade agreements, although delays in negotiations could mean a significant period trading under World Trade Organisation arrangements. Uncertainty will impact the industry and the people it employs, and drive up the price of goods, so what access arrangements will be in place?