High-speed Rail

Debate between David Mowat and Susan Elan Jones

Wednesday 13th July 2011 Westminster Hall

[Susan Elan Jones]

I would hope not. On HS2, the 2008 Atkins report concluded that a high-speed rail network would deliver more than £60 billion-worth of benefit to the UK economy in its first 60 years. In 2009, the British Chambers of Commerce calculated revenues and benefits to the economy worth £55 billion. The Government’s consultation paper puts the benefits at around £71 billion in revenue and benefits.

[David Mowat (Warrington South) (Con)]

On the subject of benefits and the point about delay, it might be worth putting on the record that the business case for High Speed 2 puts the net benefit ratio of the project at 2.6, which is higher than Crossrail, Thameslink or HS1.

[Susan Elan Jones]

I agree with the hon. Gentleman, but not with the Taxpayers Alliance, which suggests that the business case is unproven. I confess that that is not the only thing I disagree with the Taxpayers Alliance on.

Wendover Action Against Chilterns HS2 Routes claims that passenger demand forecasts have been overestimated. It ignores the fact that, after 10 years of 5% annual rises in passenger numbers, HS2 envisages just 1.4% annual growth. Again, it does not offer its own projected profit figures. The RAC has offered the following gem of a critique:

“the analysis so far has been largely uni-modal and future analysis will need to be multi modal so as to assess HSR against rival and complimentary investments, particularly in the air and road sectors, whilst further work may also be required to analyse the inter-relationships with the classic rail sector and to test the robustness of modelling results”.

Perhaps we can pass that on to the Plain English Campaign, so that it can translate it for the rest of us. Ultimately, it is clear that the experts all agree on one thing: there will be economic benefits and, even if we cannot agree on every penny, we know they will be hefty. Whether someone lives in the Chilterns or not, they cannot escape the economics. If it is done properly, high-speed rail works. Once we accept that, it only remains for us to consider whether those benefits are outweighed by any overriding negatives. As we have heard, the Secretary of State for Wales believes that one such negative is the fact that the line will pass through her backyard. Putting the right hon. Lady’s begonias aside, what are the real facts on environmental impact?

I totally agree that areas of outstanding natural beauty must be protected. Indeed, a new such area is on its way in my constituency. I believe that they must be protected and preserved wherever possible; I do not accept, however, that HS2 will cause unacceptable blight in the Chilterns. In fact, all but 1.2 miles of the route through the Chilterns area of outstanding natural beauty will be in tunnels, and one cannot get much less obtrusive than that. We will not be able to see it—it will be under the ground. Other parts of the route will be hidden in deep cuttings, or run alongside motorways. A lot of work has gone into ensuring that the line will cause minimum disruption. In fact, route changes mean that only 340 properties will be affected by noise, of which 210 are in central London, itself hardly a haven of peace. Just 10 properties will be affected by high noise levels. That does not add up to irreparable damage to the countryside. The fact that it will be possible to see and hear this rail line in the distance does not outweigh the very real economic and social benefits it will bring.

I have one point to add, regarding the residents in Holborn and St Pancras whose homes may be demolished. That may be classed as irreparable damage and I would not want to see that outcome; I hope very much that a solution can be found to avoid that demolition. I would back any amendment to the plan that could avoid the destruction of homes.