Office for Budget Responsibility (Manifesto Audits)

Debate between David Mowat and Jesse Norman

Wednesday 25th June 2014 Commons Chamber

[Jesse Norman]

My hon. Friend is absolutely right, and I will move on to that point shortly.

The OBR is a new institution. Would it be right to put its recently created reputation at risk by inserting it into the political process in the run-up to an election? The answer is obviously no. These issues need to be calmly and soberly addressed, not patched together late in a Parliament. The proposal would require primary legislation, which will take time and consideration. It should not be rushed into on this timetable. The Institute for Government was perfectly clear that it should not be adopted as a hasty change to the OBR’s remit at this point in the Parliament.

The second question is this: would such a new role compromise the OBR’s key functions? There is an obvious danger that it might. The remit would require careful amendment. Clear rules would be needed on how many policies could be costed, if not a full manifesto, and on which political parties would be eligible. The OBR could not be expected to invigilate in hard cases or act as judge on these issues. It would undoubtedly be attacked by parties that were ineligible to have their policies costed.

[David Mowat (Warrington South) (Con)]

My hon. Friend has referred two or three times to policies being “costed” by the OBR. In fact, the motion refers to auditing, which has a precise meaning. I think that is the weakness of the Opposition’s case. What does an audit opinion mean? It would be qualified, true and fair, and in reality there would be several caveats, which we would end up arguing about.

[Jesse Norman]

That very important point speaks better than I can to my hon. Friend’s expertise. I suspect what the Opposition mean is “costed,” so their failure to understand the difference is reason alone to reject the motion. “Costing” was the word used by the Treasury Committee and that is what I would call it, too.

There is some risk of bias against insurgent parties that were growing in public support but did not have many MPs, or in favour of declining parties for the opposite reasons.

I remind the House that there are deeper questions to be addressed. Is it actually possible to have all policies costed in a genuinely authoritative and independent way? The answer is far from clear. Many policies are non-financial, many are vague and many have complex interactions with other policies that may themselves not have been costed, and many have implied costs that will not be captured by a direct costing exercise. It may be that the OBR will not enjoy the relative immunity from political controversy enjoyed by the civil service when it ends up costing Government and Opposition policies. Parties may try to gain the OBR, as they have attempted to do in Holland.

My final question is this: is it wise for the state to be pushed further into the political process? My hon. Friend the Member for South West Devon (Mr Streeter) has made this point, but let me reiterate it. It is a far bigger question than we have time to debate today, but just as there are perfectly proper concerns about the state being dragged into funding political parties or into press self-regulation, so there are proper concerns that the state should not be pulled into costing party policies. After all, parties have been producing policy ideas, themes and, indeed, platforms, if not manifestos, for more than 200 years, ever since the time of Burke, Fox and Pitt. The British public have found themselves able, mirabile dictu, to make judgments for that period, even without the wisdom of the Office for Budget Responsibility.

This very debate shows how this topic has already become bogged down by partisanship. Why does the Labour party now seek to have manifestos audited? The reason is that its polling data overwhelmingly demonstrates that Labour is hopelessly short of economic credibility. The shadow Chancellor himself is specifically responsible for—indeed, he incarnates—that lack of economic credibility. He was a key figure in the previous Government, who left our country so vulnerable to financial crisis. He had to be dragged kicking and screaming to accept his mistakes in office as a soft-touch regulating City Minister. He is still in denial over the success of plan A. The irony is that his performance on this very issue perfectly exemplifies the reasons for his diminishing authority: first, he was against costing policies, but now he is for it. For naked short-term advantage, he is prepared to politicise the OBR and its head, amid a lot of pious words about cross-party consensus from one of the most divisive figures in politics of the past two decades.

In conclusion, this is an important issue, but the shadow Chancellor embarrasses himself twice over: first, by placing it in such a party political context, and secondly, by ignoring the real problem for him, which is the catastrophic failure of trust in politicians and political parties today—a failure to which he himself has been no small contributor. The causes of that loss of trust have little to do with politics. They run much deeper to the decline in Britain’s influence around the world; the loss of standing of Parliament over so many recent scandals; feelings of powerlessness among the general public; an apparently increasing sense of outrage fanned by parts of the media; and a general unwillingness to grasp the complexity of Government or to give those in power the benefit of the doubt.

The time has passed when the shadow Chancellor could expect to be heard on this or any issue. He has thrown that right away. He has lost what authority he ever possessed. Today’s debate shows precisely why he will never, and should never, regain it.