High-speed Rail

David Mowat Excerpts

Wednesday 13th July 2011 Westminster Hall

[Susan Elan Jones]

I would hope not. On HS2, the 2008 Atkins report concluded that a high-speed rail network would deliver more than £60 billion-worth of benefit to the UK economy in its first 60 years. In 2009, the British Chambers of Commerce calculated revenues and benefits to the economy worth £55 billion. The Government’s consultation paper puts the benefits at around £71 billion in revenue and benefits.

[David Mowat (Warrington South) (Con)]

On the subject of benefits and the point about delay, it might be worth putting on the record that the business case for High Speed 2 puts the net benefit ratio of the project at 2.6, which is higher than Crossrail, Thameslink or HS1.

[Susan Elan Jones]

I agree with the hon. Gentleman, but not with the Taxpayers Alliance, which suggests that the business case is unproven. I confess that that is not the only thing I disagree with the Taxpayers Alliance on.

Wendover Action Against Chilterns HS2 Routes claims that passenger demand forecasts have been overestimated. It ignores the fact that, after 10 years of 5% annual rises in passenger numbers, HS2 envisages just 1.4% annual growth. Again, it does not offer its own projected profit figures. The RAC has offered the following gem of a critique:

“the analysis so far has been largely uni-modal and future analysis will need to be multi modal so as to assess HSR against rival and complimentary investments, particularly in the air and road sectors, whilst further work may also be required to analyse the inter-relationships with the classic rail sector and to test the robustness of modelling results”.

Perhaps we can pass that on to the Plain English Campaign, so that it can translate it for the rest of us. Ultimately, it is clear that the experts all agree on one thing: there will be economic benefits and, even if we cannot agree on every penny, we know they will be hefty. Whether someone lives in the Chilterns or not, they cannot escape the economics. If it is done properly, high-speed rail works. Once we accept that, it only remains for us to consider whether those benefits are outweighed by any overriding negatives. As we have heard, the Secretary of State for Wales believes that one such negative is the fact that the line will pass through her backyard. Putting the right hon. Lady’s begonias aside, what are the real facts on environmental impact?

I totally agree that areas of outstanding natural beauty must be protected. Indeed, a new such area is on its way in my constituency. I believe that they must be protected and preserved wherever possible; I do not accept, however, that HS2 will cause unacceptable blight in the Chilterns. In fact, all but 1.2 miles of the route through the Chilterns area of outstanding natural beauty will be in tunnels, and one cannot get much less obtrusive than that. We will not be able to see it—it will be under the ground. Other parts of the route will be hidden in deep cuttings, or run alongside motorways. A lot of work has gone into ensuring that the line will cause minimum disruption. In fact, route changes mean that only 340 properties will be affected by noise, of which 210 are in central London, itself hardly a haven of peace. Just 10 properties will be affected by high noise levels. That does not add up to irreparable damage to the countryside. The fact that it will be possible to see and hear this rail line in the distance does not outweigh the very real economic and social benefits it will bring.

I have one point to add, regarding the residents in Holborn and St Pancras whose homes may be demolished. That may be classed as irreparable damage and I would not want to see that outcome; I hope very much that a solution can be found to avoid that demolition. I would back any amendment to the plan that could avoid the destruction of homes.

--- Later in debate ---

[Stuart Andrew]

I think that the Government are being conservative in their estimates of passenger numbers and who will use the high-speed network. I was about to say that even with our current creaking transport network, Leeds enjoys the second largest financial sector in the country. If we have a high-speed route to Leeds, the prospect of increasing and expanding that financial sector could become a reality.

Figures suggest that current proposals for a line between London and Birmingham will generate 40,000 jobs. When we move to the Y-shape, there will be greater prosperity and more jobs. Globalisation means that we need to start meeting the demands of a much smaller world so that those of us on the periphery, as the hon. Member for Ynys Môn (Albert Owen) said, can also enjoy the benefits of that.

Let me refer to some of the criticisms of the scheme. Too often we hear people referring only to the line to Birmingham. The whole point about HS2 is that it will go beyond that. The Y-shaped route was the best decision made by the Government. If they had chosen only the line that went to Manchester and then Leeds, I, too, would be a critic, but the fact is that the Y-shape will bring benefits to the whole country, as was confirmed by the Prime Minister on 22 June. I have heard critics say that the line will never get that far north, but the Prime Minister has been clear on the issue.

[David Mowat]

My hon. Friend makes an important point about the consultation being for only the leg between London and Birmingham, which is the hardest part to achieve and the part with the weakest business case. The business case for the entire project is much better, because the line becomes easier to build as we go north. Does he agree that even though the business case for the initial part is stronger than those for Crossrail and Thameslink, it is a problem that there is consideration of only that first part?

[Stuart Andrew]

I completely agree. That is why I say that we must consider the project in its entirety and think about going beyond what is currently proposed and on to Scotland. We must think of the very long term, not just the short term. On the one hand, people say, “Oh, this is too many years in advance. It’s not worth doing,” but there is no excuse for doing nothing and we have to plan now to deal with the problem. On the other hand, however, people say, “We shouldn’t be spending this amount of money when times are hard,” but construction will not happen until 2017 and it will take place over two decades. I believe that the cost will be about £2 billion a year, which is similar to the cost for Crossrail, and if that was good enough for London, it is good enough for the rest of the country.

Yesterday, I sat for a short while at the back of the room in which the sitting of the Transport Committee was taking place and I heard the arguments against HS2. They seemed to centre on the claim that existing infrastructure would miss out. In fairness to the Department for Transport, it has invested lots of extra money for projects. When the people appearing before the Committee were asked what they wanted instead, they said, “Roads.” Well, we have seen what has happened before in that respect. They said that the M25 junctions could be improved, which would be very helpful to those of us in the north—thanks very much.

HS2 is not a panacea, but it will dovetail into the northern hub so that we can get people to the north and around the north, and so that business can thrive. That is something that we cannot wait for and Britain needs to catch up.

--- Later in debate ---

[Graham Evans (Weaver Vale) (Con)]

I congratulate the hon. Member for Clwyd South (Susan Elan Jones) on securing the debate. I have not hidden my full backing for the proposed high-speed rail link, and I certainly cannot be accused of hiding my disdain for some of the bogus arguments made by its opponents, who have now given up even pretending that they are not nimbys. Take the hon. Member for Coventry North West (Mr Robinson), for example, who just this week said:

“There’s nothing wrong with being a Nimby, openly and absolutely.”

However, I do not intend to waste any more time on them.

The last time that we had a debate on this issue in Westminster Hall, I focused on busting the myths of the opponents. In this debate, I shall explain how my constituents and the constituents of the hon. Member for Coventry North West—indeed, all our constituents—will massively benefit from a high-speed rail link between London, Birmingham, Leeds and Manchester. When I say “our constituents”, I really mean our constituents’ children and grandchildren, because this is a long-term decision, not an election gimmick or a vanity project. Most of us in the Chamber will not be around to take the credit when the first high-speed trains arrive in Manchester. This is about taking the right decision now to ensure that our economy can compete in the decades ahead so that the next generation, which has already been saddled with huge levels of debt thanks to the previous Government, is not also stuck with a jammed-up rail network, which would have crippling effects on our international competitiveness. After all, we would not want to run a 21st-century economy on A and B roads when we could build motorways.

All our major global competitors already have high-speed rail lines or are investing in them right now. If we do not go ahead with High Speed 2, we will be left behind. Network Rail estimates that London-Manchester passenger demand will grow by 61% by 2024. It is clear that “upgrading is not enough” and that

“incremental improvements in the existing network are unlikely to be able to keep up with rapidly growing passenger demand”.

That should be a warning to opponents.

[David Mowat]

I want to touch on one quick point that my hon. Friend and others have made in error. They suggest that this is all about Manchester to London, Leeds to London or Edinburgh to London, but it is not—it is about getting to Europe as well. The links to High Speed 1 are fundamental to our communities, and we must not let the debate become polarised so that it focuses only on London.

[Graham Evans]

I am most grateful for my hon. Friend’s intervention and I take his point.

Network Rail is clear about what the solution should be. It says that High Speed 2 “solves the capacity challenge” and that the proposed line would

“deliver a very large increase in capacity, including freeing up capacity on the existing network for freight, more frequent services for cities not served by the high-speed line and increased commuter services.”

That means that the constituents of the most earnest opponents of High Speed 2 will benefit directly from the plans. The point about freight is also crucial. If we are to rebalance our economy, with more northern-based manufacturing—figures show the Government are already making strong progress on that—that will involve demands for additional freight capacity.

High Speed 2 therefore directly benefits a wide range of people, from commuters in Cheshire to manufacturers in Coventry. A lot of flim-flam will be spoken about the business case for high-speed rail by its opponents, but the business case is strong. The estimated benefit to the economy is more than £40 billion pounds.