Budget Resolutions

Charlie Maynard Excerpts

Wednesday 6th November 2024 Commons Chamber

[Jonathan Reynolds]

I have already given the right hon. Gentleman a go. I will make a little progress, and we will see whether he can do a better one next time.

The result was a protracted period of anaemic growth. Had our economy grown at the average rate of other OECD countries over this period, it would have been £171 billion larger. Imagine the difference that would have made to all of our communities and to today’s Budget debate. British firms, facing such uncertainty, have not seen investing domestically as a sufficiently attractive proposition. They have been reluctant to adopt new technology, to upskill their employees or to plough money into research and development. We have even heard that, in any given year, roughly 40% of UK firms choose not to invest at all. We want to change that for good. We want to give businesses certainty, confidence and stability so that they can make decisions for the long term.

That is why, at the Budget, the Chancellor reaffirmed our new modern industrial strategy. Invest 2035 will be a central pillar of our growth mission. The strategy will allow businesses to plan not just for the next 10 months, but for the next 10 years. It has already won the backing of Make UK, which has told us that businesses will no longer have to

“fear the constant chop and change in policy we have seen over the last decade.”

Instead, they can focus on the long term.

Our industrial strategy will create a strong pro-business environment, making it simpler and cheaper for companies to scale up and invest. It will unleash the potential of our high-productivity services and industries, because our recent economic history has taught us that we have to play to our strengths. Over the last 25 years, high-productivity sectors were responsible for roughly 60% of our economy’s entire productivity growth. Looking at the figures since 1990, over half of the UK economy’s GDP growth has come from just three sectors—information and communications technology, financial and professional services, and advanced manufacturing.

That is why our industrial strategy will channel support to eight key growth-driving sectors, those in which the UK services sector will excel both today and tomorrow—the services and industries that present the greatest opportunity for output and productivity growth over the long term.

[Charlie Maynard (Witney) (LD)]

How does that all gel with the fact that the OBR is saying that business investment will fall by 0.6%, as a share of GDP, by 2029? It sounds great, but it does not add up in the OBR’s eyes. Will the Minister please elaborate?

[Jonathan Reynolds]

We have a similar question. The Government’s wider pro-business changes cannot be modelled by the OBR, and we know that we have to prove them. There is simply no way that we will get to the higher business investment, the higher productivity growth and the stronger economic growth that we need in all parts of the country unless we are honest, robust and responsible with the public finances, as this Budget is and the previous Government were not. If the Budget does not set the trajectory for strong long-term public investment, to leverage in that degree of private investment, we will not have the foundations to succeed. I am so excited by this Budget because it gives us those strong foundations for the future.

--- Later in debate ---

[Charlie Maynard (Witney) (LD)]

In this Budget debate, I am going to focus on the massive disconnect between the Government’s talk about growth and investment and what the OBR considers will be the outcome. Sadly, we can want something and talk about it, but if we do not enact the policies, we are not going to get it. That will hit everybody across the country really hard, particularly the most vulnerable. I am seeing that reality in my constituency, where a lot of employers are relocating plants abroad to the EU, rather than relocating and growing those jobs in the UK. That is not just happening in my constituency: very likely, it is happening in every other Member’s constituency as well. That is a huge problem for our public services, which are ultimately underwritten by our taxes.

As a result of this Budget, real private consumption as a share of GDP is set to fall by 0.4% by 2029, and real business investment is set to fall by 0.6%. It is not me saying that: it is the OBR. That is very different from what the Secretary of State has told us. It leaves real GDP growth lower in the outer years, in the 2027-29 forecast—again, not my words, but the OBR’s. As per OBR data, Brexit is cutting our long-run productivity by 4%, and is cutting the overall trade intensity of our economy by 15% in the long term. The UK has a free option to boost economic growth at zero fiscal cost by restoring a closer economic relationship with Europe. However, although not a single person on Labour’s Front Bench even voted to leave the EU, we find ourselves with a Government supporting daft Conservative economic policies that nobody in the country voted for, such as remaining outside the customs union and the single market.

Even before Trump’s win today, we as a country could not afford to be taking these wrong decisions. Continuing to do so, wilfully and in direct contradiction of the facts, is neglectful and shows a disregard for the wellbeing of our country. I urge the Government to change course.