Security in the Western Balkans

Bob Stewart Excerpts

Thursday 2nd May 2024 Commons Chamber

[Alicia Kearns]

Dodik absolutely did do that. Once again my right hon. Friend is absolutely right. Over the next few days, there will be a great Easter coming together of Dodik, Vučić and others around a Greater Serbia, which I will touch on briefly.

I ask the Government to work with our allies to consider an alternative peacekeeping framework to EUFOR, led by NATO. The Dayton agreement gives NATO explicit permission to legally establish a force in Bosnia for peacekeeping without time limit or UN approval. There is widespread support from the Bosnian Government, and its legality under the Dayton agreement means that neither Dodik nor Putin could block it, unlike the current arrangement with EUFOR. As a minimum, the UK should send a NATO peacekeeping force to the strategic Brčko district, which I am sure my right hon. and gallant Friend the Member for Beckenham (Bob Stewart) will speak about shortly. Even one battalion of NATO troops in Brčko would make a secession militarily impossible and have a stabilising effect on all of Bosnia’s politics.

[Bob Stewart (Beckenham) (Ind)]

I entirely endorse that point. A British battalion positioned in Bosnia would give a very strong signal. Frankly, a British battalion is probably the best battalion to send into such a peacekeeping situation.

[Alicia Kearns]

My right hon. and gallant Friend is absolutely right. To that point, I know that the Foreign Secretary, in answering questions from Members in the other place yesterday, said that he would prefer to emphasise and focus on Kosovo, but we saw that when British troops went into Kosovo last September, there was a resurgence in the delivery of the mandate. My right hon. and gallant Friend is right that British troops would make a fundamental difference. The fact that the Dayton agreement gives us explicit permission to create a new security force means that we should actively be debating it.

Finally, the UK should look at extending the sanctions levied against Dodik and other senior figures in his circle, which I was relieved to secure a few years ago. The joint sanctions with the UK and the US have begun to take serious effect, with Bosnian banks closing the accounts of those targeted. I urge the Government to consider sanctioning other figures from Republika Srpska who support laws designed to undermine the high representative and the constitutional court, promote genocide denial and glorification, and attempt to transfer Bosnian state assets to their personal control.

Bosnia, with its multi-ethnic character and constitution, is a barometer for the entirety of the western Balkans. When threatening the break-up of Bosnia, Dodik said:

“If anybody tries to stop us, we have friends who will defend us.”

I say, let us show him that Bosnia, too, has friends, and none more steadfast than the United Kingdom. Now is the time for deterrence, diplomacy and a rejuvenated NATO to take the initiative and ensure that Bosnia’s sovereignty and security are protected.

While the situation in Bosnia is tense, Kosovo is the only country in the western Balkans to have faced an attack on its soil since our last debate on the western Balkans. The Banjska attack carried out last September saw 30 heavily armed Serb militants murder a Kosovan police officer, Afrim Bunjaku, before engaging in a firefight from the Banjska monastery. The amount of weaponry seized from the militants was truly extraordinary. I have seen it myself, and I refer to my declaration in the Register of Members’ Financial Interests.

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[Bob Stewart (Beckenham) (Ind)]

Some present will recall that I was the British battalion commander under UN command in Bosnia in 1992 and 1993. Since then, I have given evidence in four war crimes trials. I have visited Bosnia frequently over the last 31 years, and what happens there and to the people who live there matters to me and to all those people who have served there—whether in the military, for a charity or whatever. Somehow that country grips us, and it matters to people in our country.

I was last in Sarajevo just over two weeks ago, principally to attend the remembrance service for the Ahmići massacre, which took place on 16 April 1993 and where 116 people like us were killed. Those people may well have been Muslim, but they thought like us; they just had a different religion. Like us, they wanted to bring their children up, they wanted schools and they wanted things to work. That is why Bosnia matters—we are very much akin to the people who live there.

Today, Bosnia remains a very fraught place, with tensions between the three main communities: Bosnian Serbs, Bosnian Croats and Bosnian Muslims. I could say there are tensions between the Christian community and the Muslim community, but I would like to point out that there are other people there, such as members of the Jewish community, particularly in Sarajevo. Tensions remain just below the surface, and sometimes they break through.

Bosnian society today is still like a lemonade bottle that someone has picked up and shaken. They put it down and think all is calm; they can see through it, and there are no bubbles. When they take the top off, there is an explosion—boom! Tensions in Bosnia remain ready to explode. These tensions are, of course, exacerbated by Russian support for Republika Srpska, which Russia already treats as an independent state. Recently, at a conference in St Petersburg, it was treated as a sovereign entity with its own flag. There have been strong indications, and maybe more than that, over the last few years that Russian weapons are going to Republika Srpska. With Russian encouragement, Dodik, Republika Srpska’s leader, whom my hon. Friend the Member for Rutland and Melton (Alicia Kearns) has already mentioned, is blocking all moves by the Muslim-Croat Federation and Republika Srpska—those two entities together are the country of Bosnia and Herzegovina—towards EU membership.

Just last week, Dodik stated that things will change after 2 May, which is today. Many people interpret that to mean that he will push for the secession of Republika Srpska from the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. If that were to happen, such a change would be a disaster for the western Balkans and would very likely result in yet another civil war. Our excellent ambassador to Sarajevo, Julian Reilly, is really worried about that.

Equally, our ambassador is terribly concerned about the number of qualified young people who are leaving Bosnia. Youth unemployment in Bosnia is at nearly 40%. No other country in Europe has such an appalling statistic. Bosnia is bleeding its youth, and the youth are the future of any country. The reason for that statistic is mainly the political situation and the unstable base on which the country sits.

[Alicia Kearns]

Is my right hon. Friend concerned that there is going to be an Easter Assembly, where Dodik and Vučić plan to sign a declaration around Greater Serbia? What does he think that means? What message does it send about Vučić’s plans and support for the tacit secession of Republika Srpska?

[Bob Stewart]

I thank my good and hon. Friend for saying that. I totally agree with the implication. The real problem is that Russia is encouraging this to happen. Republika Srpska, under Dodik, is pushing for it, and the Serbs will play both sides. If it were to happen, we could have an appalling situation like we had in the early 1990s.

In fairness, the British are doing all we can to help, particularly economically. We are trying to pump-prime Bosnia’s industry to support the setting up of new companies. Bosnia is still governed by the short-term rules—they were meant to be short-term rules—agreed at the Dayton peace conference in 1996. The rules were supposed to last a couple of years at most, but they have never been replaced. They really need to be sorted out to make a workable system for everyone who lives in Bosnia—Serbs, Muslims, Croats, whoever.

[Sir Alec Shelbrooke]

Everyone is grateful for the service that my right hon. Friend gave to the world. He experienced and witnessed trauma to try to bring about that peace and, in doing so, had to deal with many areas of corruption. Does he believe that a drift away from the big stick has allowed the undermining of the very issues that he says need to be addressed?

[Bob Stewart]

I thank my right hon. Friend.

There has been drift. We had the most wonderful high representative Paddy Ashdown, who really did wield the big stick—and it worked. His name is still revered and he was a friend of mine—he remains one, although he is gone. We need a high representative with more power, and we need the situation to be sorted out so that people do not get away with criminal acts. The mafia are still rampant. When I was in Bosnia, I had to deal with three sides militarily and with the mafia, who were appalling. I do not want to go into how to deal with the mafia, because that is not the purpose of this debate, but they are always there and they are the people who do not want change. [Interruption.] I have slightly lost my place; I knew I should not have written my speech!

Corruption and cronyism remain and are largely supported by the system. Last year, when I visited Tuzla, in the north of Bosnia, I met a highly qualified young lady who was desperate to go to medical school and become a doctor. She had all the qualifications but she told me that she could not go because she was not a member of a certain political party and, more importantly, because she did not have enough money to bribe the officials to put her on a list to go to a medical school. She was in despair and felt that the only future for her and her friends lay in leaving the country.

Our country has put a lot of effort into supporting peace and stability in Bosnia. We have done so on many levels: politically; socially; economically—a lot of economic work has gone on in Bosnia; and of course militarily. I really believe that our efforts have been worth it; we have saved many lives, and nothing is more important than to save someone’s life. We have to continue to do that. We have to do all we can to help the Muslim, Serb and Croat people of Bosnia. All that the vast majority of them want is a decent life—one that we are lucky enough to have—where their children go to school, where they can get jobs and where they do not need to worry too much about law and order. We are lucky to live in this country; there but for the grace of God go all of us. We could have been born Bosnian.

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[Sir Alec Shelbrooke (Elmet and Rothwell) (Con)]

I pay tribute to my hon. Friend the Member for Rutland and Melton (Alicia Kearns), the Chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee, for securing this debate at such a critical time.

In November, I was in Sarajevo with the NATO Parliamentary Assembly for a Rose-Roth seminar, which involved a series of lectures and presentations. We got to hear about what was going on from many angles, which led me to the conclusion that I could make one statement saying one thing and another saying the complete opposite. There is a paradox in the country, and the truth of it all depends on one’s perspective. For example, people will say that basically nothing has happened since 2017, and that the country is in a stalemate and is not moving forward in many of the areas my right hon. Friend the Member for Beckenham (Bob Stewart) mentioned. In the same breath, they say that the country is moving forward, building more solid foundations, and becoming a more trusted partner of international institutions. Where the truth lies between those statements is what we are exploring in today’s debate, but we know that corruption is still rife, and there are too many self-serving interests.

In the interests of time, I will not repeat the examples given by my right hon. Friend. He outlined them perfectly, especially the example of the young girl who wanted to start a medical career. The reality is that if someone is not a member of a political party, or cannot pay certain people, they can be caught in a trap. Corruption, electoral fraud, the state of law—these are all things that the Government are trying to work on in Bosnia with the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, but they are not taking major steps forward. There are, however, politicians and parties that are trying to break away from the established corrupt institutions. We will watch the elections with interest over the coming years, especially in Sarajevo, as anti-corruption candidates start to stand. We have a responsibility to support those processes, through organisations that we support, such as the OSCE.

My right hon. Friend is absolutely right: brain drain is a massive issue for Bosnia. A country cannot survive and have an economic future if what remains is just the retired population, and those who would serve its best interests are leaving. In 2021, 182,000 people out of a population of 3.2 million left. Ten years ago, there were 300 vacancies in the military, which 7,000 people applied for. Last year, there were 300 applications for 1,000 vacancies. That is a stark change in a decade. Military investment in Bosnia and Herzegovina has stalled at 1% for a decade. That is not enough to maintain the equipment, let alone a force. We then start to see those with corrupt and criminal interests able to get a foothold again—and, more fundamentally, not being worried about any consequences.

There is a way that we can turn that around and support Bosnia. It is about, in words that I have used already, the big stick. My right hon. Friend described Paddy Ashdown using that big stick. I think my right hon. Friend was a little shy about his role in the country, doing what he could to keep criminality under control. The blunt truth is that too many politicians are playing a very dangerous game in Bosnia, in Republika Srpska and the surrounding area. When it looks as if democracy will threaten their position, they launch into nationalist fervour and push that forward. That is exactly what Dodik did in Republika Srpska: he moved to a relatively moderate position, until it looked as though his position was under threat, and then became far more extreme.

It is easy in such a debate to discuss where we are and where things are going. We say that what we did in the war was 30 years ago. I think that sanitises things slightly. I remember watching—it has to be 25 years ago—the BBC drama “Warriors”. I only watched it once, and I was traumatised by it. It was an excellent drama.

[Bob Stewart]

“Warriors” was based on my infantry battalion, and it demonstrated how brilliant, well trained and decent our servicemen are in such situations. I am very proud that “Warriors” won the Montreux golden rose for its production.

[Sir Alec Shelbrooke]

I am more than grateful to my right hon. and gallant Friend for making that point. He is held in high esteem in this House, in Parliament and in the outside world for the role that he played in that operation.

I was coming on to say that the reason why I have never been able to watch that programme again is that it was horrific. I was not in the services, and I did not go out to Bosnia. I watched that drama in my very early 20s, and I found it so horrific that even though it has been repeated since, and even though it is excellent, I have not been able to watch it. That must not be forgotten. The hon. Member for Tiverton and Honiton (Richard Foord) outlined some of the horrific scenes that took place—the butchery, the savagery, the hatred that led decent people and neighbours to carry out those acts. We have to recognise them in this House and never forget.

I had the privilege of being the international chairman of the Conservative party for a period. We did a lot of work with the Westminster Foundation for Democracy, a body through which Labour, Liberals and Conservatives work with their sister parties to help build democracies. It was set up after the Cold War. I am proud that I was able to work with three factions from the centre right in Bosnia, to get those right-wing parties around the table, talking and working towards developing a better future. I used to say, “I don’t know whether this will have any long-term effect, but at least I can one day look my maker in the eye and say that I tried.” I had a very tiny part in trying to make peace last, because that is what we have to do.

Tragically, in my opinion, Republika Srpska representatives did not turn up to the Rose-Roth seminar of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly in November, apart from one person who very bravely did and got a hell of a lot of pushback for it. Its representatives have been disengaging. That is what I mean when I talk about the dangerous path that they are on. Take the history of the second world war. By about the 1960s, German society started to teach about the holocaust. That was a very important moment; it turned to education to make sure that history could not repeat itself. In Bosnia, however, not only are people not talking about some of the crimes against humanity that took place during the war, but in some of the schools in Republika Srpska, they are actually saying, “It’s lies—it didn’t happen. This the problem. We’ve got to separate out.” We should be highly concerned about that.

What lies behind all that is the arm of Russia. I have heard that Russia is not directly involved. It is not supplying arms; it is not doing some of the things that it has done in other parts of the world, such as Syria and Ukraine. However, the hand of Russia is there, politically and disruptively, and we do not have to look very far to see it. This is a critical moment.

My hon. Friend the Member for Rutland and Melton and my right hon. Friend the Member for Beckenham used the word “deterrent”. One thing we could do today is take a British battalion, in a NATO-led operation, to those areas, and act as a deterrent. I do not want any forces to have to try to stop the slaughter of innocent civilians. We now have an opportunity, in that the Minister is here to take these points back to the Foreign Office. I know that Ministers are always constrained in what they can and cannot say at the Dispatch Box, but we have to send a clear message in this debate.

History does not have to repeat itself. We do not have to have programmes that I have only ever been able to watch once in my life because I found them too horrific for me, let alone for the many Members of this House who served in Bosnia, or those now in the other place who were Ministers at the time, and had to deal with the consequences. There is ongoing trauma. I have met service personnel, some of whom served under my right hon. Friend the Member for Beckenham, and I have heard and seen the deep distress that they live with to this day, having tried to protect innocent civilians. That does not have to happen again. We can, and we need to, take action this day. That is the responsibility of the developed western world. It has responsibility for managing its military, and for the ethics that we apply to stop those who, purely as part of power-grabbing political games, play the nationalistic card, which will lead to murdered civilians. We see that today in Ukraine because we did nothing after Crimea.

[Bob Stewart]

If we deployed a British battalion in Bosnia under the very small NATO headquarters there, it would show that we meant real business, and aimed to stop things this time. It would, by its presence, demonstrate power, but hopefully it would not have to use force. Battalions from other countries could help, too. My goodness, Minister, this is a time when taking a little action would have a huge dividend.

[Sir Alec Shelbrooke]

I am bringing my comments to a close, and my right hon. Friend has absolutely summarised the point that I am trying to make. I am on the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, I am the chairman of its Defence and Security Committee and I lead the UK delegation. What do we talk about more than anything else? The word “deterrent.” Deterrence has to be better than going in to try stopping a war. We can do this today. My right hon. Friend’s intervention has absolutely summed it up. Minister, if there is one message to take away at the conclusion of the debate, it is that we can prevent horror that could happen very soon—maybe as soon as the end of this week.