Asked by: Bernard Jenkin (Conservative - Harwich and North Essex)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what assessment has been made by her Department of the statistical reliability of the OBR's claim that the UK economy is growing more slowly than if the UK had remained in the EU after 2021; and if she will set out the analysis, facts and arguments behind the assessment.
Answered by Torsten Bell - Parliamentary Secretary (HM Treasury)
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is the Government’s independent official forecaster and is responsible for producing economic and fiscal forecasts.
The OBR has included assessments of the economic impacts of leaving the EU in its forecasts since 2016. In March 2020 the OBR estimated that GDP will be 4% lower in the long run than it would have been had the UK not withdrawn from the EU. As of the Spring Forecast 2026, the OBR’s assumptions were unchanged from its previous assessment.
The OBR is required to produce a Forecast Evaluation Report (FER) each year under the Budget Responsibility and National Audit Act (2011). The OBR is required to explain the reasons for divergence between its forecasts and subsequent outturns, to support future forecast improvements. The OBR’s latest FER was published in June 2026 and can be found on its website.
Asked by: Bernard Jenkin (Conservative - Harwich and North Essex)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what assessment her Department has made of the potential impact of measures proposed in the EU reset on economic growth, taking account costs on business and the taxpayer of, inter allia, i) new regulations and directives brought into force by the EU since the UK left the EU and to be imposed on the UK; ii) payments which will be required to be paid to the EU by the UK.
Answered by Torsten Bell - Parliamentary Secretary (HM Treasury)
At a time of great global uncertainty, we must deepen our relationships with allies whose values we share and whose interests are tied to our own. This is why we will pursue a closer relationship with the EU where it is in our national interest to do so.
The Government is committed to providing appropriate analysis of any agreement that ius made with the EU. The Government estimates that the Sanitary and Phytosanitary Agreement (SPS) and Emissions Trade Scheme Linking (ETS) will add up to £9 billion to the UK economy by 2040.
The 2025 UK-EU Common Understanding sets out that the SPS, ETS and electricity agreements will include appropriate financial contributions.
Asked by: Bernard Jenkin (Conservative - Harwich and North Essex)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what assessment she has made of the impact of leaving the EU on the underlying growth rate of the UK economy; and what recent analysis her Department has undertaken on that issue.
Answered by Torsten Bell - Parliamentary Secretary (HM Treasury)
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is the government’s official forecaster. The OBR has included assessments of the economic impacts of leaving the EU in its forecasts since 2016. In March 2020 the OBR estimated that, as a result of the deal negotiated by the then government, GDP will be 4% lower in the long run than it would have been had the UK not withdrawn from the EU. As of the Spring Forecast 2026, these assumptions are unchanged from its previous assessment.
Asked by: Bernard Jenkin (Conservative - Harwich and North Essex)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, how many personnel from each financial sector regulator for which he is responsible have been seconded and for what purpose to a financial regulator elsewhere in the EU.
Answered by John Glen
The UK’s financial services regulators operate secondment programmes to financial services firms, regulatory bodies and institutions – including those in the EU and rest of the world - and do so for various reasons.
The number of personnel seconded and the purpose for doing so is a matter for the independent regulators.
Asked by: Bernard Jenkin (Conservative - Harwich and North Essex)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer, what advice his Department is providing to importers on how to make customs declarations on goods arriving from EU member states after 29 March 2018 in the event that such declarations are required.
Answered by Mel Stride - Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer
On 23 August, HMRC published Technical Notices on Customs, Excise and VAT procedures that would apply under no deal arrangements and the implications for businesses. HMRC has also written to 145,000 traders over the VAT threshold who currently only trade with the EU to explain the changes and to encourage them to look at the existing rest of world guidance on GOV.UK. We have also published our letter to EU only traders on GOV.UK.
We know that there would be some additional smaller businesses impacted who are not currently registered for VAT. We have engaged with trade and business representative bodies who have greater knowledge and access to these businesses. We plan to communicate through these groups, so that these smaller businesses are told about any implications. We will shortly publish a partnership pack that these representative bodies can use in their own communications.
To support the customs intermediaries sector to expand ahead of March 2019 HM Treasury and HMRC have also designed a package of measures which includes a one-off investment of £8 million to support broker training and increased automation.
HMRC’s communications plans have a phased approach and later in the year they will provide more information on what people can do should they wish to make preparations.
Asked by: Bernard Jenkin (Conservative - Harwich and North Essex)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask Mr Chancellor of the Exchequer, what estimate his Department has made of the Government's (a) gross and (b) net contribution to EU institutions in 2014; and what the UK's balance of payments with those institutions was in that year.
Answered by David Gauke
Complete outturn figures, including receipts administered by public sector bodies and those received directly by beneficiaries, for the UK’s gross and net contribution to the EU Budget in 2014 can be found in Table 3B, page 16, of HM Treasury’s European Union Finances 2015 publication (Cm 9167) which is available from the House library and on gov.uk. No estimates are provided, as outturns for 2014 are available. The Government does not produce an estimate of the UK’s balance of payments with EU institutions.
The UK’s contributions fluctuate between years. Over the years 2010 to 2014, the UK’s contributions averaged around £7.1bn. This means that for every pound paid in tax, a little over 1p goes to the EU. An explanation of these figures can be found in Annex B of HM Treasury’s analysis of the long-term economic impact of EU membership and the alternatives.
Asked by: Bernard Jenkin (Conservative - Harwich and North Essex)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask Mr Chancellor of the Exchequer, how many staff in his Department are working on matters related to (a) European policy, (b) the future of Europe, (c) reform of the EU, (d) the renegotiation of the UK's relationship with the EU, (e) the EU referendum and (f) the consequences of the EU referendum; how many full-time equivalent staff are working on such matters; what the (i) staff and (ii) other cost of such work is; what proportion of that work is undertaken by such staff on (A) communications, (B) strategy and (C) policy; whether his Department has established any specific unit or units to deal with those matters; to whom such (1) staff and (2) units report; whether his Department has issued guidelines to staff on those matters; and if he will make a statement.
Answered by Harriett Baldwin - Shadow Minister (Business and Trade)
The Government is fighting hard to fix the aspects of our EU membership that cause so much frustration in Britain - so we get a better deal for Britain and secure our future. Departments are appropriately resourced to support the Government's priorities in Europe, including the renegotiation and referendum.
Asked by: Bernard Jenkin (Conservative - Harwich and North Essex)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask Mr Chancellor of the Exchequer, if he will make an assessment of the average net benefit per household of the UK's membership of the EU.
Answered by David Gauke
As the Chancellor of the Exchequer has noted, the best outcome for the UK economy is that we achieve major economic reform of the EU. The Prime Minister is focused on success: he believes he can and will succeed in reforming and renegotiating our relationship with the EU, and campaigning to keep the UK in the EU on that basis.
The Confederation of British Industry and British Chambers of Commerce have both come out to say they support the reform agenda the Prime Minister is seeking to deliver.
Asked by: Bernard Jenkin (Conservative - Harwich and North Essex)
Question to the HM Treasury:
To ask Mr Chancellor of the Exchequer, whether the speech delivered by the Chief Secretary to the Treasury in New York on 25 June 2014 represents the policy of the Government.
Answered by Danny Alexander
I recently visited the USA in my capacity as Chief Secretary to the Treasury, where I delivered speeches to audiences in New York and Washington on 23rd and 25th June respectively.
Transcripts are available on the Treasury website: https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/chief-secretary-on-investing-in-the-uk and https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/chief-secretarys-speech-to-the-centre-for-transatlantic-relations.