Covid-19: R Rate and Lockdown Measures

Baroness Thornton Excerpts

Tuesday 9th June 2020 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Thornton (Lab) [V]]

First, will the Minister say what weight the Government attach to the science presented in the figures that the Centre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine published, which state that R is above one in the south-west and north-west of England? Secondly, the regularly estimated national R rate appears to be a key driver of policy; accurate measurement of R depends on a world-class testing regime, not yet in place; the likelihood is that some geographical areas may have an R close to or above one; and effective local control measures rely on knowing the local R rate. Given all that, when will the system for more accurate measurements of R agreed with the relevant local authorities be available by localities, so that this information can be used to inform and adapt the emerging local planning led by directors of public health?

[The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Department of Health and Social Care (Lord Bethell) (Con) [V]]

The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine’s report is one model of more than a dozen that contribute to the SPI-M committee, which looks at modelling. We value it, but it is not the only model. Regarding the statistical analysis of R, I pay tribute to the Office for National Statistics, which has put in place a massive testing programme to look at prevalence across the country. Hundreds of thousands of tests are done. This is by far the gold standard in terms of understanding prevalence and it feeds in accurate, up-to-date information for the accurate assessment—not modelling—of R0. It is on that work that we depend.