Ukraine

Baroness Meyer Excerpts

Friday 26th January 2024 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Meyer (Con)]

My Lords, as we enter the third year of the war in Ukraine, questions are being asked about how long the conflict can last and how long the West can continue its support. The quick win we were all hoping for has not happened. Commentators speak of a stalemate. Russia occupies around one-fifth of Ukrainian territory and will not give that up easily. There are talks of a large-scale Russian offensive deeper into Ukraine, while the Ukrainian counteroffensive is running out of steam due to a lack of funding, a lack of weaponry and unsustainable losses.

Almost a year ago, in March 2023, the World Bank estimated that it would cost a minimum of $411 billion to rebuild Ukraine. Oleksandr Gryban, Ukraine’s former Deputy Minister of Economy, said that the figure could be closer to $1 trillion now. Naturally, both sides are looking for help abroad. An axis of resistance is forming, as Russia is getting weapons from Iran, China and North Korea. Ukraine is again asking for more weapons and financial support from its allies in the West.

Thankfully, the West has reaffirmed its commitment to Ukraine. The EU is confident that all members will agree to give €50 billion from the joint budget, despite Hungarian opposition. This is on top of many independent bilateral agreements from European countries. As the trade envoy to Ukraine, I am particularly proud of the United Kingdom’s steadfast support. We have already delivered £9.3 billion in humanitarian, economic and military support. This month, the Prime Minister agreed to increase our military funding from £2.3 to £2.5 billion.

But, while European nations are increasing their support, there is growing concern about the future of US military aid. As mentioned, President Biden’s request of $61.4 billion has still not been approved by Congress. There is also growing reluctance among American voters, particularly Republicans, to provide additional support to Ukraine. This isolationist stance will only solidify should Donald Trump come to power. Given Putin’s past behaviour, it is likely that Moscow will try to interfere in the United States’ elections.

While we are all united in supporting Ukraine against Russian aggression, the ever-growing financial cost of rebuilding Ukraine and the drain on public finances, let alone the human cost, will undoubtedly lead to a point when we will have to explore ways to stop this carnage. Speaking as a woman and a mother of two sons, and seeing the atrocities every day—towns being destroyed, women raped, children abducted and more and more killing—I ask how much longer this can go on. This is not appeasement but the realisation that war cannot continue indefinitely. Diplomacy will have to take the reins.

Some will say that any negotiation would be impossible, but we have done this before, when America and the Soviet Union came close to nuclear war in 1962, with the Cuban missile crisis. It had a sobering effect on Washington and Moscow, which led to the establishment of a hotline between the two capitals to defuse the crisis. The notion of relaxing tension then entered the foreign policy vocabulary; we called it détente in the West. It triggered a series of agreements and confidence-building measures banning nuclear proliferation, which lasted until 1979. The Helsinki accords, signed in 1975, provided a framework for European security. Could a similar diplomatic offensive help persuade Putin to come to some compromise?

An article in yesterday’s Foreign Affairs was about the prevailing myths and misconceptions that distort how America and Russia see each other, and how

“they get in the way of sound strategy and agile diplomacy”.

A RUSI analysis, published the day before, stated that even a “partial victory for Russia” would have catastrophic consequences not only for Ukraine but for the West and NATO. It stated that any peace treaty in which Ukraine could survive despite the loss of territory would be just another Minsk agreement, giving Putin the strategic pause necessary to prepare the next phase of aggression.

Given this stark scenario, can my noble friend the Minister assure the House that Europe could maintain defending Ukraine without the support of the United States? If there is a shred of doubt, should this narrow window of opportunity before the US election and the likelihood of a President Trump win be used for negotiation? Can he also tell the House whether there is any realistic possibility of ending this war other than through diplomacy?

I too look forward to the maiden speech of the noble Lord, Lord Camoys.