Afghanistan

Baroness Manningham-Buller Excerpts

Wednesday 18th August 2021 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Manningham-Buller (CB) [V]]

My Lords, in September 2001, shortly after the attacks on the World Trade Centre and the Pentagon, when I was deputy head of MI5, I flew to Washington with the head of MI6 and the head of GCHQ to discuss with our American colleagues what more our intelligence community should do to counter the threat. The threat was not new but the scale and audacity of the attacks were, although we had been expecting a major attack by AQ for some time. The decision was about al-Qaeda, its base in Afghanistan and its close relationship with the Taliban. I do not remember any discussion on Iraq. Subsequently, there were divergences of policy and approach but at that stage we were as one; indeed, most countries in the world wanted to support America.

Twenty years on, I could weep. Has all that effort been in vain? Were all those lives lost and lives ruined for naught? In this, I agree with what the Lord Privy Seal and the noble Lord, Lord Hammond of Runnymede, have said. In one respect, it certainly has not been wasted. I say this to dispirited veterans and to grieving families of servicemen who lost their lives in Afghanistan: remember that no terrorist attacks have been launched from Afghanistan for the last two decades, as far as I know. But now I wonder whether my hope that progress in helping Afghanistan move from its medieval past might last. I recall bitterly the comment of al-Zawahiri, bin Laden’s deputy, made five years in, to the effect that this time not even Dr Brydon would get home. That should remind us of the patience, long-term nature and sense of history that the West rarely shows but which the Taliban and their supporters have.

Others in this debate will cover much more eloquently than I can the acute humanitarian crisis, the strategic implications, including for NATO, and the need to begin, when appropriate—here, I agree with the noble Lord, Lord Hain—a dialogue with the Taliban, however unpalatable, to explore incentives for good behaviour. Others suggest that they have changed. I am afraid that I am sceptical, but we shall see.

I end by warning of two major security concerns. First, there is inspiration. The Taliban victory and its rout of western forces, as it appears, will inspire and embolden those who wish to promote jihad against the West. Events over the last few days show that the success of this ideology is possible and that will excite, encourage and spur terrorists. Secondly, on safe space, even if we believe the Taliban when they say that they will not allow terrorists to operate from their territory, I doubt they could stop that happening. The border with Pakistan is porous and its Government supportive of the Taliban. There is plenty of room to recruit, plot and train a new generation of terrorists. I wish I could end on a more positive note, and maybe my pessimism is misjudged, but I expect more terrorism directed against the West, based on extreme Islamist ideology.