Baroness Ludford
Main Page: Baroness Ludford (Liberal Democrat - Life peer)
Baroness Ludford (LD)
My Lords, one of the factors inhibiting a transition arrangement deal, leaving aside the stasis on phase 1 of the negotiations, is the Government’s failure to specify what it would be a transition to, as the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, among others, has pointed out. “Deep and special” does not cut the mustard; it is just a slogan.
Business needs to hear that the Government intend to stay in the single market and fully in the customs union in the standstill, in the transition and permanently. Of course, that would be achieved by remaining in the EU, which would also give us a voice in the rules. The Government must specifically resile from a no deal intention. I find it rather rich that the opposition parties are enjoined by the noble Lord, Lord Butler, to back the Government when their own party is not backing them.
The notion that crashing out of the EU will liberate the UK economy to prosper, as it sails the high seas in buccaneering spirit, is rejected by all serious and credible economists. No WTO member can unilaterally decide its rights and obligations. A new schedule of our trade arrangements would take years to negotiate and, as we saw recently, be a golden opportunity for trade partners to extract concessions. No country can unilaterally fix the regulatory environment it would face. The notion that life outside the EU would be less affected by red tape is utterly fallacious. Being in the customs union and single market cuts paperwork over rules of origin and local content, tariffs and compliance with regulations.
No deal would make the bad economic situation, as sketched by the noble Lord, Lord O’Neill, much worse, as highlighted by the OECD just this week. The cost of living would rise, possibly costing families £5 more a week. With inflation already at 5%, that is no small deal. There could be trade and customs chaos, with tailbacks of lorries, perhaps even from Dover to the Dartford Crossing, as mentioned by my noble friend Lady Kramer and others. Losing the benefits of the EU 66 trade agreements would be a serious setback: we would potentially see serious job losses and a regulatory minefield, with industries struggling to function as we dropped out of EU rules and agencies.
My party is not secretly in favour of a further referendum. We are extremely up-front about that ambition. There are no options as good as remain, and thus voters should have the chance to think again on the wisdom of Brexit, once they see what it would really entail.