Economy Update

Baroness Kramer Excerpts

Tuesday 10th November 2020 Lords Chamber

[Lord Tunnicliffe (Lab) [V]]

My Lords, I am grateful to the Minister for presenting this Statement. It is the latest in a series of announcements and, while there are aspects that we very much welcome, it is a tremendous shame that it has taken so long and required so much frustration and anxiety among businesses and working people. The Labour Party has called for clarity on job support for months. In that time, rather than providing certainty, the Chancellor proceeded with winding down the furlough scheme. That decision was taken despite its apparent success at keeping people employed and warnings of the impact of a perceived cliff edge in support.

Instead of protecting as many jobs as possible, Mr Sunak was honest about the fact that he had decided to focus on so-called viable jobs instead. The replacement scheme was announced with little accompanying detail and, when the information finally emerged, it became apparent that the Job Support Scheme—JSS—would not do, even in the revised form announced mere days before its planned commencement. We now find ourselves with the Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme—the CJRS —extended to March, with a review of the proportions paid by the Treasury and businesses themselves to be carried out in January. This finally provides a degree of certainty to businesses, and we are pleased that they can now plan accordingly. However, not for the first time, the decision came much too late.

This entire process raises several important questions, which I hope the Minister will address. I appreciate that our time is restricted, so I would welcome a letter with any detail he is unable to set out today. What evidence base did the Chancellor draw on when announcing the planned shift from the CJRS to the JSS? Did that modelling predict that jobs may be lost in the short and medium term as a result? If so, how many? How does this match up to the reality reflected in recent figures? Does the Treasury anticipate any of these job losses being reversed and, if so, how many?

I now turn to the continued issues with the Self-employment Income Support Scheme. In last week’s response to an Urgent Question, the Minister cited the number of claims made under the SEISS and assured noble Lords:

“We keep under review the whole issue of trying to protect those who have fallen through the cracks.”—[Official Report, 4/11/20; col. 708.]


I accept the point he made in relation to certain changes to universal credit, which marginally improve the situation for some of those excluded from the SEISS. However, this ignores the key issue, which is that so many people remain beyond the scope of the Government’s core coronavirus economic support and are, instead, forced to rely on an inadequate social security system.

How can Ministers and their officials not have found a solution to this in the past six months? Is the problem that the Minister and the department do not believe there is one, or is there a lack of political will to bring one forward? What would he say to those who, by the end of the current package, will have been outside the scope of government support for a full calendar year?

Finally, I was grateful for the promise of correspondence on self-isolation payments and the technicalities of that system. I have some further points on this. A study by Independent SAGE suggested that only approximately 20% of people in England who experience Covid-19 symptoms go on to follow fully the Government’s self-isolation guidance. Now that we find ourselves subject to a new lockdown, what steps are the Government taking to address this worrying trend, so that there is higher compliance when the current restrictions are eased?

I touched last week on people being ineligible for self-isolation payments if they receive notification via the mobile app rather than an NHS contact tracer. There are many other issues with eligibility, meaning that only one in eight workers is covered by it. In the gig economy, the situation is potentially even worse. Those workers do not enjoy statutory protections and often cannot afford to miss even a day’s work. While some digital platforms have put in place their own measures, this relies on good will and discretion rather than providing guarantees to those in need. What, if anything, do the Government have planned in this area? How soon are we likely to see the details?

[Baroness Kramer (LD) [V]]

My Lords, last week the Minister was not a bit keen on my call for an extension of the 80% furlough scheme to June. Now it looks as though I will get that until at least April, unless there is a poison pill in the January review—though I suspect, quite frankly, that the Government would not dare. I also called on the Government to feed the kids. What a difference a week makes. I am glad they have finally faced up to the realities and have U-turned on quite a range of issues.

They should still do more for the self-employed, whose income support grant ends at the close of December. They cannot be left out in the cold at the turn of the new year. Again, not a thing has been done for the 3 million excluded. The clue is in the name: excluded. There is no point in the Minister quoting programmes that these people cannot access and use. Letting them down is unacceptable.

On the same day the Chancellor made the furlough announcement, the Bank of England announced another £150 billion of QE, which will bring its holding of government debt to over £900 billion. There is a widespread market sentiment that this policy has come to the end of the road. Will the Government comment on that and the implications of negative interest rates, which are now being explored by the Bank? Are we really saying that savings are worth nothing, and that ordinary people need to take increased financial risk in a time of such uncertainty, created by not just Covid but an imminent economic Brexit?

[The Minister of State, Cabinet Office and the Treasury (Lord Agnew of Oulton) (Con)]

I thank both noble Lords for their comments. I will first address the noble Lord, Lord Tunnicliffe.

The Government have always made it clear that economic support would continue past the end of October and had announced the Job Support Scheme to do just that. Extending the CJRS, or furlough, responds to the latest economic conditions and the national lockdown in England and similar restrictions in the devolved Administrations. The Government have acknowledged that they have not been able to support everyone in the exact way they would want, but they have been proactive in addressing gaps in the scheme where possible. This partially addresses the points of the noble Baroness, Lady Kramer; for example, under the second SEISS grant, self-employed traders facing reduced demand or who are temporarily unable to trade due to Covid were made eligible. It has not been practically possible to include certain groups without introducing unacceptable fraud risks.

The vast majority of the British public has come together, followed the law and helped to prevent the spread of the virus. We are confident that communities will rise to the next challenge and play their part as we come together to fight the second wave this winter. The noble Lord asked about compliance. To ensure that people can continue complying, we have introduced a comprehensive package of support, including extended SSP to employees when they are asked to self-isolate, and for workers on low incomes a one-off payment of £500 under the self-isolation support payment scheme.

Individuals who are asked to self-isolate by NHS Test and Trace because they have tested positive for coronavirus, or been identified as a contact, may be eligible for the test and trace support payment provided that they meet the other criteria. If individuals are identified as a contact by the NHS Covid-19 app but they have not been contacted by NHS Test and Trace, they cannot currently apply for the scheme. App users are anonymous, which means that the local authorities that administer the payment scheme cannot confirm that they have been asked to self-isolate. Further work is ongoing to determine if the scheme can be extended to individuals who have been identified as a contact only through the app, while adhering to data privacy requirements.

We have legislated to prevent employers from requiring workers, including agency workers, subject to the duty to self-isolate to attend work. Employers who breach this are subject to a £1,000 fine, rising to £10,000 for repeat offences.

The noble Baroness asked about the potential for negative interest rates. I cannot predict the future, but the noble Baroness will know that we are very against that at the moment. I hope that it can be avoided. I share her concern that negative interest rates put pressure on savers beyond that which has existed over the last 10 years of very low interest rates. It is illustrative of the balancing act that the Government must take between support for people during this crisis and the long-term impact on the Government.