Iran

Baroness Falkner of Margravine Excerpts

Tuesday 30th November 2010 Grand Committee

[Baroness Falkner of Margravine]

My Lords, I thank the noble Lord, Lord Corbett of Castle Vale, for this opportunity. I shall talk about Iran’s nuclear ambitions and its relationship with its neighbours, given the limited time. Our interests in the UK are engaged with Iran on numerous fronts. It is a neighbour of Afghanistan and Iraq, countries in which UK forces are deployed, and to Pakistan, where we have ongoing security interests.

Iran’s attempts to acquire a nuclear capability have been an ongoing concern for many years now, and rightly engage the international community. Until the present time, we have pursued a twin-track strategy; successive increases of sanctions against Iran have continued alongside the E3+3 talks. There have been ebbs and flows; there was a positive atmosphere in 2003, when Iran suspended its nuclear programme, but on the whole these days the optimism is gone and we know from successive IAEA inspections and public statements from the regime that Iran’s technological know-how is moving ahead towards highly enriched uranium. Whether that leads towards nuclear weapons capability is probably undisputed; the question remains as to how long that will take.

The question that remains for us is what we are to do. Many of us suspected that Israel was being restrained from launching an attack against Iran’s nuclear sites by the US, but we now hear from reports that Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have been actively seeking a military strike against Iran in order, supposedly, to destroy her nuclear capability. I hope the Minister can impress on Israel that this would be a most unhelpful course of action, if that is what she seeks to do. Iranian rhetoric indeed threatens Israel, and President Ahmadinejad’s recurrent statements are deeply provocative. Iran’s support for Hezbollah must be deeply worrying, not least when amply demonstrated through President Ahmadinejad’s recent visit to Lebanon. But airstrikes will not do away with any of that; indeed, they will aggravate tensions throughout the Middle East.

If we in the international community think that we can sanction strikes against Iran and expect no retaliation, we are naive at best. The Straits of Hormuz would be closed overnight, with worldwide oil prices spiking to unprecedented levels. A hard-won stability in Iraq would be immediately endangered and Iran’s significant influence in Afghanistan would be far from benign. Airstrikes would almost certainly not eradicate Iran’s programme, which is dispersed and well protected, as we understand from intelligence.

I turn to the threat that Iran supposedly poses to its neighbours in the wider Middle East. The 2010 report of the US Director of National Intelligence describes Iran foreign policy in his annual threat assessment, finding that:

“Iranian leaders undoubtedly consider Iran’s security, prestige and influence, as well as the international political and security environment, when making decisions about its nuclear program”.

That is not an unusual set of priorities for any sovereign Government.

In conclusion, while we abhor these actions, I hope the Minister will reassure us that we will continue to keep our eye on the prize of peace through dialogue and sanctions, rather than allowing the use of force, even if it is by proxy.