Brexit: Economic Forecasts

Baroness Deech Excerpts

Wednesday 24th October 2018 Lords Chamber

[Lord Bates]

I point out to the noble Baroness that some of the markets in which we are trading most successfully and where growth is increasing are ones that we do not have a formal free trade agreement with and where we operate on WTO terms. But that is not the objective we are setting for the future; we want a good trade agreement with our friends in the European Union and good free trade agreements that we will be able to negotiate with other countries around the world.

[Baroness Deech (CB)]

My Lords, I have had the advantage of listening to the noble Lord, Lord King of Lothbury, speak about the reliability of economic forecasts. In summary it was, “Stuff happens”. No one 11 years ago would have foreseen what would happen in 2008 or the problems with the eurozone ever since. Indeed, the Treasury document that we had to see in private across the road itself fluctuated 5% this way and 5% that. Will the Minister understand if we take the forecasts with a great dose of salt?

[Lord Bates]

We should do, although of course we look at them. We somehow behave as though economic forecasts are some kind of target that we have to meet, when they are not. Our future is entirely in our own hands. What is better news for us is that it is entirely in the hands of British businesspeople, who have shown themselves to be world leaders the world over. I have great confidence in them and their ability to continue.