Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (All Tiers) (England) Regulations 2020

Baroness Altmann Excerpts

Tuesday 1st December 2020 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Altmann (Con) [V]]

My Lords, I thank my noble friend for his opening remarks, and for his passion for and dedication to his role. I understand that none of these decisions is easy and that nobody would have wished us to be in the position in which we currently find ourselves. Of course the Government must protect their citizens as best they can. They must make tough choices on behalf of the wider public and lead the country responsibly.

However, to make those choices it is vital to have the best information from a wide range of sources, not just one perspective. We all want to see success in our stewardship of the health, well-being, prosperity and security of our citizens. I want to see the Government make the right choices. However, while I have listened to the reasons given for the detailed measures we are debating, and the dramatic intrusions into people’s most personal lives contained in this 75-page document, we have still not been provided with any proper analysis to justify them.

My problem revolves around the lack of clear evidence for such confusing, seemingly illogical and draconian measures. I hope the Government can be persuaded to do better to ensure that measures are based on solid evidence, rather than apparently continuously erring on the side of caution with respect to one illness and its possible impact on the NHS, while risking many more lives that have already been and will continue to be lost from other illnesses, whether strokes, heart problems, suicide or cancer. We simply do not have the numbers to show how many people are forecast to die of, for example, undetected or untreated cancers that have already occurred since March 2020, as well as those yet to occur, but which are directly or indirectly attributable to the ongoing interruption of normal NHS services. I deeply regret the position we are in, but we need to be satisfied that the costs of these measures do not outweigh any benefits we are likely to see. Thus far, we simply have not been provided with such evidence.

I would understand that these measures could potentially be justified if we were dealing with a disease that killed 50% or 80% of those infected, but this unprecedented deprivation of liberty and intrusion into people’s everyday lives and family relationships, as well as the destruction of good people’s livelihoods, which will leave permanent scarring on our future growth, seems to be based on conjecture and warnings about future scenarios from people whose previous forecasts have been shown to be inaccurate. The quantitative modelling and analysis is simply nowhere to be found. How can we properly assess these measures without such evidence? Cost-benefit analysis is normally essential, yet the so-called Analysis of the Health, Economic and Social Effects of COVID-19 and the Approach to Tiering, published last night, contains no rigorous cost-benefit analysis in any formal, recognisable sense. My noble friend Lady Neville-Rolfe is absolutely right. Yet this omission seems to be excused by the statement that,

“it is not possible to forecast the precise economic impact of a specific change to a specific restriction with confidence”.

So, none is provided.

Figure 2 of last night’s document shows that, thankfully, the numbers of weekly deaths, each one of which is a tragedy, are way below the numbers in April this year. Yes, the numbers of deaths are rising but, as we go into winter, that is not surprising. Where is the context? What is the normal number of deaths from all causes at this time of year?

The document states that,

“the alternative of allowing COVID-19 to grow exponentially is much worse for public health.”

However, as other noble Lords have said, no one is suggesting that this is the only alternative. We have treatments for this illness. We also have a population that could decide for itself what is needed to be able to live with this illness. Most of the population is trying hard to be cautious and is keeping social distancing, and I believe we should trust them. There is significant behavioural evidence that compulsion and draconian restrictions are not the best way to control people’s behaviour. I also understand the sentiments of my noble friend Lady Noakes about the inconsistency of areas such as Kent, with its different tier restrictions that seem to bear no relation to the underlying data.

My feelings are of regret rather than of anger. I agree with the amendments in the names of my noble friends Lord Cormack and Lady Neville-Rolfe. Indeed, I have some sympathy with my noble friend Lord Robathan’s amendment. Without an analysis that quantifies the costs and impacts of the measures we are debating tonight rather than just bold statements that they will save lives and stop the NHS being overwhelmed, I do not believe we are in any position to judge these serious measures.