Health Protection (Coronavirus) (Restrictions) (England) (No. 4) Regulations 2020

Baroness Altmann Excerpts

Wednesday 4th November 2020 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Altmann (Con)]

My Lords, it is a pleasure to follow the noble Baroness, Lady Smith of Newnham, with whom I normally agree; I do on this occasion, in many ways. I do not underestimate the challenges faced by the Government and have enormous sympathy for my noble friend the Minister, but I believe that the measures in these regulations, which we are being asked to approve as a whole—with the dramatic consequences they will have on millions of people’s lives, physical and mental health, personal safety and livelihoods—are flawed. We still have not been presented with an impact assessment, a cost-benefit analysis or alternative scientific views—of which there are many suggesting that these measures are based on questionable data and invalid assumptions.

I find myself agreeing wholeheartedly—unfamiliarly, perhaps—with my noble friends Lord Robathan, Lord Forsyth, Lord Lilley and Lady Noakes. We need to prepare proper analysis and present it to Parliament, with full transparency on all the assumptions, and have an opportunity to amend these measures in the light of evidence.

I do not believe that these regulations had been sufficiently broadly considered. They are not based on rigorous analysis. For example, there is no evidence to suggest that banning communal worship will impact the spread of the virus, especially after churches, synagogues and other religious venues have spent so much to ensure that they are Covid safe, as the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Winchester rightly said. Where is the evidence that outdoor sports such as golf and tennis, or swimming in a chlorinated pool, are dangerous?

These measures need to be amended, but we are not able to do that. Yet surely we have a duty to satisfy ourselves that they are based on robust data. As an economist, I have plenty of experience of flawed models that assume away the real world or depend on incorrect assumptions. Selected statistics, presentation out of context and failing to consider issues broadly are classic errors. I feel that we are in danger of being misled. Of course I am concerned about the economic impacts of the measures we are being asked to approve, but I am even more concerned about the effect on broader national health, particularly mental health, to which my noble friend Lady Meyer refers in her amendment to the Motion, and the impacts on family life, people in care homes and people missing cancer, heart, stroke or other diagnoses and treatments.

These measures have been hastily put together and I believe they are dangerous. Policy devised in panic is not good policy. Can we not take some extra time—even just a few days—to consider them more carefully, gather more evidence, and produce a proper cost-benefit analysis and impact assessments to allow a more cogent set of measures to be laid before us?