Social Security

Anne Begg Excerpts

Thursday 17th February 2011 Commons Chamber

[Steve Webb]

The hon. Lady is absolutely right that home insulation is an important part of this: it is not just about helping people to pay their fuel bills, but about improving the insulation standards of their homes. Our colleagues at the Department of Energy and Climate Change are working on the issue and will shortly introduce proposals that will build on the energy rebate scheme, which took place in 2010, whereby low-income pensioners and others—the most vulnerable households—received direct payments. I understand that a further scheme will shortly be brought forward that will benefit exactly the people she talks about.

Despite the pressure on public expenditure, the coalition, through these orders, will spend an extra £4.3 billion in 2011-12 to ensure that people are protected against cost of living increases, and, of that, fully £3.4 billion will be spent on pensioners.

Let me move on to the second landmark change—the move to the consumer prices index. At one stage, the House thought that it might have a jolly three hours on price indices after an all-night sitting, so we are probably all relieved that we got a bit more sleep before entering this territory. The purpose of the annual uprating exercise is to ensure that the purchasing power of social security benefits is protected against inflation. We view the CPI as the most appropriate measure of price inflation for this purpose, although we would acknowledge no single index is perfect. The CPI is

“more reliable because, taking account of spending by all consumers, this consumer prices index gives a better measure than the old RPIX measure of spending patterns. It is more precise because, as in America and the euro area, it takes better account of consumers substituting cheaper for more expensive goods.”—[Official Report, 10 December 2003; Vol. 415, c. 1063.]

They are not my words, but those of the then Chancellor, the right hon. Member for Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (Mr Brown). I could not agree more. Increases in line with the growth in the CPI maintain benefit and pension value. The CPI is the country’s headline measure of inflation, forming the target for the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee. I remind the House that the legislation under which this order is made requires that we reflect the “general level of prices”.

It would be remiss of me not to thank the Leader of the Opposition for his support for our position on this issue. When Laura Kuenssberg of the BBC challenged him at a press conference on 11 January, saying,

“You’ve said time and time again that you will not oppose every cut; but four months into the job, the list of cuts that you will support remains pretty short,”

the Leader of the Opposition said:

“Let me just say on the cuts, I listed four cuts that we had not opposed, but it’s not just four cuts...from Employment Support Allowance to some of the changes to Disability Living Allowance, to the changes to the Consumer Price Index and RPI, to a range of other measures, we’re not opposing all the cuts.”

I am very grateful to him for his support.

[Dame Anne Begg (Aberdeen South) (Lab)]

Would the hon. Gentleman like to quote the Leader of the Opposition further, where he said that if there were a case to be made for shifting to the CPI, it would be a temporary move, not a permanent one?

[Steve Webb]

I am grateful to the hon. Lady. I have heard it intimated that the Opposition support using a temporary measure of inflation before using a different one in the future. I can see the politics of that, but not its coherence. The duty on my right hon. Friend the Secretary of State is to measure the general increase in price levels in an appropriate way, and it would be very odd if he were to decide one year that the CPI, with its method of calculating on a basket of goods, was the right answer, and then four years later, because there was a bit more money, that there was a different answer. That is not the legal duty on my right hon. Friend.

[Dame Anne Begg]

Will the hon. Gentleman clarify whether the move from RPI to CPI has anything to do with deficit reduction, which would be a reasonable argument as to why it might be temporary?

[Steve Webb]

The hon. Lady asks an important question. I will deal specifically with the budget deficit. However, when we looked at this issue as a new Government, we were prompted particularly by the context of a year in which the RPI had been negative. We arrived in May 2010. In April 2010, uprating had been nil for the state earnings-related pension scheme, public sector pensions and all the connected pensions. That is not because inflation for pensioners had been nil—I have never met a pensioner who thought they had negative inflation in the year to September 2009—but because that is what the RPI said. The RPI was clearly not doing its job then, and that focused our mind on whether it was the right thing. It is true that, on average, the CPI tends to be lower—not always, but generally. I have looked at the past 20 years, and in five of those the RPI has been lower than the CPI. That improves the situation in a difficult financial position; I would not pretend that it does not. However, our job is to have an appropriate, stable measure of inflation, and that is what the CPI achieves. [Interruption.] Indeed, it is much less volatile.

I sometimes think—perhaps this makes me sound a bit sad—that if the CPI were a person, it would be taking people to court for slander and libel for some of the things that have been said about it over the past few weeks and months. It is almost as if it is a stray number that we found on the back of a fag packet and decided to use to up-rate benefits. In fact, it is a careful calculation by the Office for National Statistics, with excruciating amounts of thorough methodological detail about the general increase in consumer prices. It is not the only measure, but it is an entirely decent and proper one.

I want to respond to some of the myths that have grown up about CPI, and to stress that this is not a choice between a good index and a bad index, but about trying to find the most appropriate measure for the purpose. The first argument that is made is that CPI is always lower. As I have pointed out, that is not true, although it is lower on average over the long term. People criticise the methodology that is used. I will explain what the difference is and why we think it is appropriate. Somewhat more than half the difference between RPI and CPI is to do with the way in which CPI assumes that people change their behaviour when prices change. CPI uses a substitution method, which assumes that people substitute for cheaper goods. Interestingly, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, which has looked at this issue, has said that that difference is a

“sound rationale for the switch”

that we are making today. RPI does not do that. Even the Royal Statistical Society, which has been critical of aspects of our proposals, states that RPI arguably overstates inflation as a result. I stress that we are trying to find not a high number or a low number, but an appropriate number with an appropriate method. Particularly for those on benefits, the substitution approach is important.

It is worth adding in parenthesis that people who say that RPI is the only possible way in which we can uprate pensions, because it is appropriate for pensioners, seem to be oblivious to the fact that RPI excludes the poorest fifth of pensioners from its consumption patterns. Their spending patterns are deliberately excluded in the construction of RPI. It seems odd that people are so wedded to RPI on purity grounds when it excludes the most vulnerable pensioners, about whom we should be most concerned.

The second myth is that the UK Statistics Authority does not think that CPI is a proper measure of inflation. [Interruption.] The hon. Member for Leeds West (Rachel Reeves) says that she has not said that, but I assure her that I have seen it in plenty of letters. The UK Statistics Authority oversees the Office for National Statistics, so it would be very odd if it thought that the ONS was producing dodgy figures. CPI is the headline measure and it is the target for the Bank of England, so it is hard to see how it is not a proper measure of inflation.

Thirdly, some say that the Royal Statistical Society does not like CPI. It has certainly criticised some aspects of the change, but it takes a more balanced view and sees limitations in CPI and RPI. As I have said, no single measure is perfect. The Royal Statistical Society has highlighted the issue of housing costs, and I will come on to that because it is clearly important.

The fourth thing that people say is that this is a real cut to the value of benefits. [Interruption.] The hon. Member for Glasgow East (Margaret Curran) says that it is, but it is not. What we are doing is measuring inflation in an entirely proper manner and increasing benefits—revaluing and reflating them—every year in line with inflation, measured in an appropriate way. That is what indexation is meant to do. There is no argument for saying that it is a cut when we are increasing benefits and pensions by inflation. Only a couple of nights ago, the lead story on the BBC news was “Inflation hits 4%”. Indeed, CPI inflation had hit 4%. That was the headline, that is inflation, and that is what we are uprating benefits by.

--- Later in debate ---

[Steve Webb]

I am grateful to the hon. Lady for raising that point. We are, of course, driven by the Office for National Statistics, so we are not cobbling together our own index. It is undertaking careful work over the next two years. We will then look at its findings and consider whether it is appropriate to use a CPIH-type measure. We are governed by the ONS’s time scales.

I will comment briefly on benefits for people of working age. Unfortunately, last year the Government got themselves into a bit of a mess over uprating. As I have said, RPI was showing negative inflation, mainly as a result of falling mortgage interest. As a result, benefits such as additional state pensions did not increase at all. They would have done under CPI. Other benefits, mainly the disability and carers’ benefits, were the subject of what my notes call a bewildering fudge—I think that roughly sums it up. In the end, disability and carers’ benefits last year were increased by 1.5%, but on the proviso that the pre-election—sorry, that word slipped out again—increase in 2010 would be clawed back in 2011. In other words, that would have happened this year in this order. [Interruption.] The Secretary of State says that we had to decide whether to pick up the ticking time bomb of that 1.5% clawback as well.

Members will be pleased to know that the 2011 uprating order before the House today contains no such sleight of hand. It is based on the straightforward proposition that, aside from increases in the basic pension and pension credit that have already been explained, the other mainstream social security benefits and statutory payments will increase by 3.1%, in line with the annual growth in RPI. There will be no attempt to recoup the value of the 1.5% fudge that we inherited from the previous Government.[Official Report, 7 March 2011, Vol. 524, c. 3MC.]

Finally, I will touch on occupational pensions. Such pensions are not directly the subject of the orders. The changes that relate to the revaluation and indexation of most occupational pensions were the subject of the revaluation order that was tabled before Christmas. However, because of the close link in all pensions matters—everything is connected to everything else—I ought to say a word about this matter. CPI is being used for all social security benefits and additional state pensions, and through statutory linkage, CPI applies to public sector pensions. We had to decide what to do for private sector pensions. I stress that the role of Government is to set the floor for increases to private sector pensions and we had to make a judgment on that. We took the view that the Secretary of State could not decide that inflation was CPI for things that we pay out, but RPI for things that other people pay out. As far as we are concerned, inflation is inflation and we have to be consistent. CPI is therefore the right floor for occupational pensions. However, I stress the word “floor”. Schemes are entirely at liberty to make more generous increases if they wish. This statutory requirement increases only in respect of service after 1997, whereas some schemes index service before that.

[Dame Anne Begg]

Will the Minister quantify the number of private occupational pensions that will not adopt the floor? When the initial announcement was made, the impression was that all private occupational pensions would move to CPI rather than use RPI. I understand a number of them have RPI in their schemes and therefore will not move to the new index. Can the Minister say anything about the volume of such occupational pensions?

[Steve Webb]

When we produced the initial impact assessment on the changes, we divided schemes into four groups according to whether they revalued by RPI or CPI and whether they indexed by RPI or CPI. We found that a good deal of revaluation was done in terms of the revaluation order and hence would go to CPI, but that a lot of the indexation was in terms of RPI. We have gone out into the field and talked to those administrating schemes, and we are revising our estimates of the proportion that will respond to this change.

The hon. Lady brings me on to the point that I wanted to make: some schemes have RPI hard-wired—for want of a better phrase—into them. We faced the difficult decision of whether to override that and put CPI in or whether to say, “Rules are rules, scheme promises are scheme promises,” and keep it how it was. We announced at the start of December that we felt that people’s confidence in pensions is important, and therefore that we would not override scheme rules. If someone has joined a private sector occupational scheme that has RPI in the scheme rules, we will not override it. Obviously, each scheme will make its own decision on how to respond if they have the flexibility to do so, but many schemes do not have that, and therefore will not make the change. We will publish updated estimates of the proportions.

--- Later in debate ---

[Dame Anne Begg (Aberdeen South) (Lab)]

It is nice to see such a large crowd of Members in the Chamber for this debate. I have attended benefits uprating debates for a number of years, and there are usually three people, possibly including one who really likes statistics, sitting somewhere on the Back Benches. As the Minister has suggested, the greater attendance this afternoon is probably a result of the fact that the entire basic indexation of the benefit system is about to change from RPI to CPI.

Benefits uprating orders are all or nothing orders; we cannot pick and choose what we want to be in them. There are bits that Labour Members are not particularly happy about, but we are happy with other bits, and if these orders do not get passed today no uprating will take place, which is the dilemma facing those of us who have concerns, particularly about the move from RPI to CPI for public sector pensions. I think I can speak on behalf of my party colleagues in saying that we will not vote against the motion, but neither will we necessarily vote for it. If the order does not pass, nobody gets anything, and we would not want that to happen.

The Minister is a very clever man, and I found his analysis fascinating. He gave a very clear and logical explanation of why CPI should be used as the inflation measure for indexation; everything fell into place, as we would expect from him. He said it is such a good measure that we are going to use it for public sector pensions, and, if we can get away with it, possibly for private sector pensions and occupational pensions. Apparently, it is so good that we are going to use it for everything except the basic state pension. I have no problem with the fact that the Government are increasing the basic state pension by more than the triple lock would have given, but this undermines the Minister’s logical argument as to why CPI is so good. My right hon. Friend the Member for East Ham (Stephen Timms) picked up on this and I would like the Minister to explain his position. Why is the basic state pension going up by RPI, or 4.6%? CPI stood at 3.1% during the period; we are talking about last year’s inflation figures here.

I am also delighted that the Government have recognised the importance of pension credit, which was introduced by a Labour Government, and of keeping that increase in line with inflation. Under the Labour Government, it was the pension credit element, rather than the basic state pension, that went up by the higher rate of indexation, because the Government wanted to narrow the gap between rich and poor pensioners and that was the easiest way to make sure the poorest pensioners got the most. Under this new uprating, however, pension credit is not going up by the 4.6% under RPI that the basic state pension is going up by. It is going up by only 3.6%, which is in line with neither CPI nor the triple lock. I am not quite sure where that figure has come from. I am not complaining that the uprating is not more than it should be, but perhaps it is less than the Minister was led to believe.

We can see from last year’s figures and the indexation that we are looking at a CPI of 3.1% and an RPI of 4.6%. That is one third less. Many people are concerned about the compounding effect of CPI over the years on their take-home pension.

[Stephen Lloyd (Eastbourne) (LD)]

Does the hon. Lady agree that even under CPI, because the coalition Government are linking it with earnings, that would be the equivalent over a full term of an additional £15,000 to someone’s pension pot?

[Dame Anne Begg]

But that is assuming that the only income that pensioners have is the basic state pension, which is not the case. Most pensioners supplement the basic state pension with an occupational pension or, if they worked in the public sector, with a public sector pension. That is where the Government have sometimes missed a trick. In obsessing about the triple lock and the basic state pension, they have taken their eye off the ball with regard to all other pension income.

Because other pension income will be reduced as a result of the link with CPI, many pensioners will find themselves worse off, or certainly not as well off as they expected or as the rhetoric from the Government would suggest. To listen to the Government, one would think they are doing everything that pensioners ever wanted, whereas they have taken action only on the narrow area of the basic state pension.

We already know that inflation is going up. VAT went up, thanks to the Chancellor. The Opposition expect inflation to go up much further because we do not think the Chancellor has the right policies. We know from the most recent inflation figures for January this year that CPI is now up to 4%—good news, one would think, for pensioners—but RPI is up to 5%. It is that differential that will cause problems.

We are considering not just pensions, but uprating for the whole benefits system. Even the Minister must recognise that there is an enormous irony in using CPI to uprate housing benefit—CPI being the one inflation measure that does not include housing costs, notwithstanding the point that the hon. Member for Cardiff Central (Jenny Willott) made about the poorest people being in social housing. That is not the case in cities such as London, and it is not the case because of the shortage of housing.

We know that large numbers of people are dependent on housing benefit—or, more accurately, local housing allowance—and they will be hit. When the Select Committee on Work and Pensions looked into the matter, we thought there were some figures to show that within a very short time nobody on housing benefit would be able to afford houses in the private rented sector that fit into the 30th percentile.

[Steve Webb]

For the avoidance of doubt—this has been said incorrectly twice in the debate—the CPI includes rent, so it is owner-occupiers’ housing costs that are not included. As rent is included in CPI, it is entirely appropriate to index housing benefit by it.

--- Later in debate ---

[Dame Anne Begg]

CPI is still much less. Perhaps the average is taken from rent overall, not only in the private rented sector. That is where some of the differential might come from.

[Jeremy Corbyn (Islington North) (Lab)]

My hon. Friend has made an important argument about the level of rent increases, particularly in the private sector in London, where rent increases and demand go up by far more than any rate of inflation or any other measurement. The Government’s cap on housing benefit has the perverse effect of driving many of the poorest people out of central London because they will not be able to meet the rent demands and normal costs of living within the global cap on benefits.

[Dame Anne Begg]

My hon. Friend is right. There is a triple whammy on people who live in London in high rent areas: the local housing allowance is to be capped, possibly below the level of the rents; they will have access only to houses within the 30th percentile; and they will not see the inflationary increases in the indexation of their housing benefit to meet those conditions. They will be hit more than once with regard to the affordability of their rents. That certainly came over loud and clear when the Select Committee looked at what was happening to local housing allowance.

The effects of the Welfare Reform Bill have been mentioned. The universal credit will make it difficult to project benefit uprating into the future to work out what percentage of their incomes people are likely to loose. There will be no straight line from the current benefits to the universal benefit, because they will be mixed up. It is difficult to see what will happen. The compounding effect will probably be seen in pensions, particularly for those in receipt of the state pension, and the level of pension will be less.

In reply to my hon. Friend the Member for Eastbourne (Stephen Lloyd)—I am sorry, Madam Deputy Speaker; I always refer to fellow Committee members as hon. Friends—I said that the assumption is that the largest part of a pensioner’s income is the basic state pension, but we know that for many people that is not the case. Even if the state pension makes up a large part of their pension, it is often not all of it. Many people on the lower pension are dependent on SERPS, which of course will now be moving up in line with CPI, rather than RPI.

On the basic state pension, I accept the Minister’s figures indicating that it will rise from £97.65 to £102.15, an increase of around £4.50 a week. No one would say that that is wrong, because we all agree that £234 a year is great. However, the average public sector pension of £7,800 will be reduced by around £117 because of the difference between RPI and CPI. I am not very good at the arithmetic, but that means that instead of getting a rise in income of 4.6%, the people affected will get a rise of less than 2%. It is a rise, but it is not as much as they were expecting, and we must remember that we are living in a time when inflation is increasing.

A woman who receives the average local government pension of £2,600 will be £40 worse off than if her pension had been linked to RPI. If she has paid the small stamp, she might get no extra money through the basic state pension anyway, not even the compensatory increase in it. She might not have made full contributions and so will get some of it, but not all. The Government’s proposal is unfair to pensioners, and it is particularly unfair to women.

My right hon. Friend the Member for East Ham has already mentioned the particular unfairness of raising the state pension age to 66 by 2020. To be clear on the Opposition’s position, we have no qualms about raising the state pension age to 66 in principle, but we are concerned about the speed with which the Government are doing so. That overrides what was already in place for women who were born in the 1950s, who were going to see their pension age rise to 65 by 2020 anyway.

Women who began their working lives expecting to get a state pension at 60—that happens to include me—will now have to wait another six years for it. On a quick calculation, that will save the Government £32,000 on today’s basic state pension. It will come out of the pockets of women who are roughly my age and will stay with the Government. We will have to increase the indexation an awful lot more to make up for the £32,000 that those women will lose as a result of the increase in the state pension age by six years.

I appreciate that the measure whereby women born in 1955 would have to wait until 2020, when they were 65, to receive their income was already in train, but what about the women born between 6 October 1953 and 5 April 1955, who had already made all their financial plans but will now have to work for more than one further year before they can receive their basic state pension? The Minister has said on numerous occasions that that measure alone will save the Government £10 billion. All that is a win-win for the Government: the Government win, because they do not have to pay the money out, and because they have changed the indexation. The people who lose are those who expected to receive their pensions at a certain point, and in this case those people are women.

I would understand the Government’s rationale if the measure was part of their deficit reduction plan, but they have already said that they intend to get the deficit off the books in four years’ time, and none of this stuff comes in until after the deficit is meant to have been reduced, so it cannot be part of a deficit reduction plan. The Government should be more honest. We have heard that the change to CPI is going to be permanent, so they should say, “We’re doing this as a long-term measure, because we want to save money.” That is part and parcel of what the Government are about: saving money.

[Steve Webb]

The hon. Lady is a thoughtful person who will know that there is an issue of short-term deficit reduction and an issue of the long-term sustainability of the public finances. Leaving aside the £1.3 trillion of public debt, which will still exist and need to be dealt with even when the deficit is no longer adding to it, does she not accept that the Office for Budget Responsibility has challenged the Government to do something the previous Government did not do and get a grip on the long-term sustainability of spending, particularly on older people?

[Dame Anne Begg]

My right hon. Friend the Member for East Ham claimed that there might be a case for deficit reduction in the short term. We are considering women and the accelerated increase in the state retirement age to 66, however, and, in terms of the 50-year pension policy and the long term, why could not the Government have waited another year or even two before equalising the state pension age at 66? The Minister keeps bandying about the £10 billion figure, but in terms of equity and fairness it would have been much more sensible if the Government had taken a long-term view. Theirs is a very short-term view, meaning that a large number of women—half a million—will lose out.

The Government could have introduced a measure that people considered fair, rational and part of a long-term decision to ensure that pensions are affordable, and it is ironic that, while they have made the decision on equalisation, they have forgotten about the long-term sustainability of the basic state pension. They have done so because the Liberal Democrats had an election promise—the one they seem to have kept to, when they have managed to ditch all the others—that was all to do with the triple lock. The Minister will not accept this point in the Chamber, although he might do privately, but the triple lock debate has skewed the Government’s entire pension policy. We are not looking at the issue in the round or over the long term, when perhaps we should be.

We do not know what inflation will be in years to come, so in the private and public occupational pensions sectors in particular it is difficult to work out exactly how much people will lose compared with what they expected to receive. Lord Hutton, in his interim report, thought that on average they would lose up to 15% of their pension’s worth, but I have seen lots of other figures for, and various calculations of, what a pensioner would have expected if their pension had been linked to RPI as opposed to CPI.

This measure cannot just be about paying off the deficit, because we know that the big-time savings kick in well after the Government propose to have paid off the deficit. The Government will win, but the people who will lose are, unfortunately, the pensioners of this country.