(11 years, 7 months ago)
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It is a pleasure to serve under your chairmanship again, Mr Robertson.
It is also a pleasure to follow my hon. Friend and constituency neighbour, the Member for South West Bedfordshire (Andrew Selous), who gave a very good introduction to the need for the decarbonisation of transport for environmental, energy, security and economic reasons. I will not try to better his explanation, but I have some concerns about how we can best deliver that in the context of electric vehicles. There is certainly a role for an electric vehicle market, but I am not sure that it will evolve in the way that the Government or other parties—there is some consensus across parties—hope, and I trust that hon. Members will bear with me while I set out my rationale for that view.
The first obstacle to the significant extension of electric car ownership is the high cost, as has been mentioned. Even with the generous discount available, the capital sum involved is still large. Currently, a like-for-like comparison between an electric car and a petrol or diesel one is a no-brainer, unless people happen to be wealthy enough to afford the premium. The usual trend is that a new technological product is initially extremely expensive and then, as the technology improves and more people take it up, the price drops. When plasma screen televisions were first introduced, the cost ran into thousands of pounds, but the price has now come right down and they are available for most people to buy.
I am not as certain as my hon. Friend that we will easily reach a tipping point at which the cost of electric vehicles will come down and make them a rational purchase choice for many consumers. My concerns about why we will not get there are largely technical, but are also from the point of view of convenience. At the moment, the range of an electric car is about 100 miles maximum, but that can be significantly reduced by use of the air conditioning, the radio and all the other gadgets that we increasingly take for granted in cars. Apart from in a very domestic market, that is a big inhibitor: people will not have the confidence to buy such a car for regular journeys to other parts of the country for business or holidays. Even half an hour, for an 80% recharge, is a significant addition of time to a business journey. That is one reason why there will be a difficulty—I am not saying that it is impossible—in getting consumer certainty and confidence.
I accept what my hon. Friend is saying. He is making some fair points, but does he accept that there might well be significant improvements in battery technology—for example, with the use of graphene—that would transform those issues?
My hon. Friend makes a good point. I hope that we reach that point, but I am not yet convinced that the technology is there to deliver that step change. It may come. I am in no way an expert on these matters, but from all my discussions with manufacturers—the Nissan Leaf was developed at Cranfield, which is close to both our constituencies—I did not get a sense that there would be a radical shift in range immediately. It may come, and I hope it does.
My other concern relates to the domestic consumer and their confidence in running an electric car. Not everyone can plan their daily journeys with great confidence. We might have our regular commute from home to work and back again, and that is within the range of the car, but then we have to pick up kids from sports activities or do an extra shop. We can suddenly add to our daily journey in all sorts of ways. Until we get to the point where the recharging of an electric car is as convenient as going into a petrol station to fill up, in terms of time and availability, we will not get that step change in consumer demand.
We have lots of charging points in Milton Keynes, but drivers can never be certain that those spaces will be free. They could be left stranded if they are not near a plug-in point to be able to recharge their car. If consumer confidence does not improve, I fear that we will not get the sort of demand that will reduce the unit cost of the car. We might be locked into that difficult cycle, which is why I fear that we will not get a huge increase in numbers in privately owned electric cars.
I take my hon. Friend’s point about the length of time that it can take to charge a battery, although perhaps not having to shell out £85 might compensate for that in quite some significant way. May I ask him about the technology developed by Better Place, which can literally swap over batteries in less than a minute? At least that is quick and would perhaps answer the issue that my hon. Friend quite properly raises.
If that could be delivered, I would be absolutely delighted, but I have not seen any evidence that that is a practical solution. If my hon. Friend has evidence to the contrary, I would be interested to see it. I have outlined what I fear the barriers are; they are not insurmountable but a challenge none the less.
I see a better future for electric cars in the fleet and hire market. My initial thoughts on that came from our Rail 2020 Select Committee inquiry. On a European visit, we met with Dutch state railways, which gave us a presentation on an integrated transport system with smart ticketing technology that involved rail, bus and increasingly hire of electric vehicles in city centres, and it is now heavily promoting that. We have a real opportunity in this country for the development of electric cars. They are not cars that people will personally own, but they could be hired on a very short-term basis for 30 minutes or an hour or for a day or a couple of days. By shifting the responsibility for recharging from the individual driver and user to the fleet company or hire company, we would be able to remove much of the uncertainty, which I fear will prohibit people from purchasing the cars themselves. It would also help in the siting of charging points. Local authorities could work with the hire companies and whoever owns the fleet to strategically position points so that the cars are dealt with in an efficient way. It would also address the fear that was mentioned by the hon. Member for Liverpool, Riverside (Mrs Ellman) about the potential overload on the electricity system if the pattern was that people come home from work and plug in their car.
Mr Robertson, you might recall that at about this time last year, you and I attended a conference in Copenhagen with European transport and environment committees. One concern expressed was that the demand from electric cars might be so great that the only way to spread the load would be to introduce price limits and controls to discourage people from charging their vehicles at particular times, which defeats the whole object of the system.
By having more of the recharging done by fleet or hire companies, we would be able to stagger the recharging of cars in a more uniform way and avoid the overload that could potentially happen if the consumer pattern was to start charging at 6.30 in the evening. It would also help with the planning of some of the issues of standardisation that the Select Committee has identified.
A better rate of decarbonisation in privately owned cars will be achieved through the development of hybrid car technology. The body weights of motor vehicles are increasingly coming down: a number of manufacturers that I have talked to have high ambitions of delivering carbon savings by developing not wholly electric cars but hybrid and lighter vehicles. That, I feel, is the biggest potential saving, but there is a role for electric cars as well.
Before the Government commit too much money in going down one route of providing plug-in places and all the other infrastructure, I urge them to take a step back and assess whether there are other ways in which we can more effectively see an increase in electric vehicles.
Finally, let me make one separate point, which the hon. Member for Liverpool, Riverside briefly mentioned, and it neatly bridges in to the second debate on road safety. Having very quiet or near silent cars on the roads poses a potential danger for pedestrians, especially for blind and partially sighted people. The Guide Dogs for the Blind Association is running an effective campaign on that, and wants a noise gadget to be introduced so that electric cars can be heard by visually impaired people.
As part of the Select Committee’s inquiry into disabled access to transport, with Guide Dogs for the Blind I took a bus journey blindfolded. Losing the power of sight is an incredibly scary experience. The purpose of the ride was to investigate audio announcements on buses, but when I was at the side of the road, I became very dependent on hearing cars. If they become so quiet that they cannot be properly heard, it could cause a real danger.
There is perhaps a market in creating different noises for cars. One could buy a little run-about car that sounds like an Aston Martin. My hon. Friend the Member for South West Bedfordshire talked about developing new technologies; I have just suggested one, and as Aston Martin is a very good employer in Milton Keynes, I heartily recommend it. Perhaps we could return to that issue of road safety in the second debate. I urge the Government to consider the matter.