Alan Whitehead
Main Page: Alan Whitehead (Labour - Southampton, Test)
Chris Heaton-Harris
Yes, I accept that we need to be aware of our carbon emissions, and I actually think that being responsible for the environment and trying to deliver the best for it is a Conservative principle. The Bill has some good elements to it, but the centralisation that I mentioned and the increased costs to consumers, businesses and the like are outcomes that we should think more about. I will happily leave my contribution there so that other Members can speak.
Dr Alan Whitehead (Southampton, Test) (Lab)
I rise to speak to my amendments 48 to 50, which, as we have heard from Minister, are concerned with the development of a capacity market intended to ensure that we have the range of capacity that we will require over the coming years and decades. Not to put too fine a point on it, it is intended to ensure that the lights stay on and that there is a decent margin between what people demand and what we supply.
A capacity market is a choice. It is not the only option available to secure the necessary capacity for the future. It seems to me that that choice needs to be based not just on whether the right capacity margin can be maintained. We should also ask at what cost it can be done, with what reliability and at what risk. I suggest that the choice of mechanism for maintaining capacity that is being made in the Bill fails on all those counts.
I have not invented that conclusion; the Department itself produced an impact assessment on the two choices that it had considered for securing capacity—a strategic reserve arrangement and a capacity market arrangement. Among other things, that choice is about ensuring that the amount of money that can be obtained through the sale of power into the market at times when capacity is tight stays within reasonable bounds. The impact assessment suggested that, in future, those reasonable bounds might get larger and larger. At the moment there is a maximum of about £1,000 per megawatt-hour, but it could go up as high as £10,000, in which case the consumer would be paying an enormous amount for their electricity under certain circumstances. The whole idea of keeping the costs of the capacity market under control would be completely overthrown.
The question then arises: which method best suits the need both to keep the right capacity and to keep it at a reasonable price and with reasonable reliability? Hon. Members will not be surprised that costs of the capacity market option over the period 2010 to 2030 have been assessed at two and a half times those of the strategic reserve option, and the effect on bills at 11 times higher. At first sight, that is not a good sign of the capacity market’s ability to provide a good deal for consumers.
According to the impact assessment, the reason why the Department eventually chose the capacity market idea was the entirely theoretical one that a reliability market
“limits the scope for generators to receive scarcity rents.”
However, the fact is that by introducing a capacity market and auction system in the way that we are, we will effectively provide guaranteed free money for a long period for people who are building conventional generation that provides capacity.
It may come as a surprise to some hon. Members that by introducing an auction market for capacity, we are ensuring that there is a subsidy across all aspects of energy generation, not just some. There is potential for gaming of that arrangement. The Government will have to decide how tight the capacity is after considering what the market will look like four years ahead, and then they will have to create an auction. That choice will be necessary for the auction to take place at all, and it will determine how much money there is in the auction. If the market is gamed so that the capacity looks much tighter than it is, the amount of money will be larger and the price will be even higher.
It is no coincidence—I think that is the best way I can phrase it—that we already see the capacity market tightening. A large number of gas plants are going into either deep or shallow mothballing in advance of 2014, and the Government’s decision about what capacity will look like will be informed by that mothballing. Were I an energy company operative, I would be rather pleased about that, because I would imagine that I would do rather well out of a capacity market in the future.
Mark Reckless (Rochester and Strood) (Con)
Surely an even more important reason for the tightening of capacity to which the hon. Gentleman refers is the shutting down of several large coal-fired power stations under the relevant EU directive.
Dr Whitehead
Yes, indeed. A number of plants are to close down over the next few years, and given how the energy market works, which I have described, one would expect the ability to obtain rents at the margins of the market to encourage the development of new plant. The statement made by the development of a capacity market auction is that that mechanism will not exist, so a permanent underwriting of new plant development needs to be auctioned to allow that to take place.
The strategic reserve option, which works quite well in a number of parts of the world, is that certain plant—perhaps mothballed plant—is taken out of the market and then placed back into it at times of stress on the market. As a result of that action, rents are reduced. Indeed, the fact that there is a strategic reserve that can be put back into the market at stressful points damps down the possibility of rents being obtained. That option comes at a much lower cost and
“should be relatively simple to set up and administer as it is a relatively small intervention in the market”—
not my words but those of the impact assessment. It
“could avoid gaming in the capacity market if there is a plentiful supply of mothballed plant”,
as indeed there is right now. Overall, it
“has the potential to be the smallest intervention in the market and accordingly has least overall policy design and implementation risk associated with it.”
The capacity market, on the other hand,
“has a higher overall level of design risk given the relative complexity of the model…a Capacity Market, if not well designed, could create opportunities for gaming the new capacity auctions; and…is the more costly mechanism to set up and run and it puts a greater administrative burden on businesses who will participate in the capacity market.”
Again, those are not my words but those of the departmental impact assessment of the choice between a strategic reserve and a capacity market.
Yet a capacity market was chosen to underpin the entire energy market reform and the Bill. I imagine—in fact, I am pretty certain—that that is what we will eventually go for. However, I modestly suggest that it might be a good idea to put in the Bill the idea that if that does not work very well, as I also modestly suggest it probably will not, the Minister has the option of moving towards a strategic reserve arrangement. That would keep the costs down and damp down the gaming of the capacity market auctions that may well take place over the next few years. That would be helpful for our ability to run a coherent energy policy over the next few years, and I tabled my amendments in the spirit of that helpfulness and to ensure that, whichever way we decide to go, we do not shut the door on something that is cheap for consumers in the long term, better for the energy market overall, and will keep our energy supplies in good shape for the future.