Public Health

Aaron Bell Excerpts

Tuesday 14th December 2021 Commons Chamber

[Sajid Javid]

It is of course important that we keep measures under review, but, for the reasons I gave earlier, I will continue to present this set of measures to the House. They strike the right balance and are a proportionate response.

[Aaron Bell (Newcastle-under-Lyme) (Con)]

My right hon. Friend may be interested to learn that Dr Angelique Coetzee gave evidence to the Science and Technology Committee this morning, and, rather contrary to her piece in the Daily Mail, she actually endorsed what the Government are doing. She said that the boosters were definitely the absolute priority, but she also referred to masks and avoiding mixing. When asked specifically about the covid pass proposals, she said that they sounded like a proportionate response to the requirements of the situation.

[Sajid Javid]

I thank my hon. Friend for sharing that with the House. I think it is important to hear that support from South African experts too.

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[Mr Mark Harper (Forest of Dean) (Con)]

Let me start with a few words about the big picture. My hon. Friend the Member for Winchester (Steve Brine) put this very well. We know that covid is going to be with us forever, and we know that we are going to have variants forever. The chief scientific adviser has told us that, and I agree with him. There are many people who think that we will just have to wait a bit and it will all be over, but that is not happening. We have to be realistic about what we are facing, and according to Jeremy Farrar, we are facing this challenge as probably the best protected country in the world through vaccination.

This was effectively the first big test for the Government: how do we deal with a variant of concern in a very well vaccinated population? I am disappointed that we have quickly gone into panic and emergency mode, with late Sunday night broadcasts—not in the House of Commons where questions can be asked—scaring people witless. For example, they have been told that two doses give them no protection, which is not true. Two doses provide weakened protection from omicron against infection, but they still provide good protection against serious disease. I am concerned that many people out there who have had two doses and who are perhaps vulnerable now feel that they have no protection. That is simply not correct. If this is the first test, I do not think we are doing very well.

[Aaron Bell]

The data from South Africa that we heard this morning in the Science and Technology Committee showed that we still have good protection against severe disease from two doses of Pfizer, but it has gone down from 93% to 70% for hospitalisation. That is four times the risk of hospitalisation.

[Mr Harper]

I have seen that, and I look forward to the information from the UK. The point I have been making in my constant repetition about the House sitting next week or the week after or being recalled—my right hon. Friend the Member for South West Wiltshire (Dr Murrison) also mentioned this—is that we are learning new information every day, and when we get that information, we might need to make different decisions. The House needs to be involved in those decisions; they should not simply be made by Ministers by decree. I repeat that point, and I do not understand why Ministers will not give us that assurance. It would build a lot of trust and good will among colleagues, and I do not understand why they will not give that commitment.

These decisions have significant economic and social impacts, as well as impacts on the NHS’s ability to deliver non-covid treatments. My hon. Friend the Member for Winchester has already pointed out that the NHS is going to scrap a whole load of elective surgeries and consultations with GPs in order to get boosters delivered. That might be the right decision, but I do not think that a proper balancing is taking place. Goodness knows how long it is going to take us to recover from the creation of this new backlog over the coming months. If the Government’s fears, as set out by the Secretary of State, are confirmed in any way, what is the exit strategy? What approach are they going to take to ensure that we do not face on-and-off seasonal restrictions forever? That is a serious question, and it has been raised by other colleagues. We need an economy that functions, people need to build lives that can function and the NHS needs to be able to function and deliver all the other healthcare we require.

Let me turn briefly to plan B. I am happy to support the measures on self-isolation. I simply note that, two weeks ago when we were asked to vote to restrict them, I voted against that. Two weeks later, the Government have agreed that I was right to do so, because they are effectively revoking those earlier measures. I will leave that thought with colleagues for when they decide whether they wish to listen to the advice of Ministers or others.

On vaccine passports, the Government’s plan B makes it very clear that Ministers’ preference is for vaccine-only passports. The only reason why tests have been incorporated is to buy or secure the support of the Opposition. That is the only reason. Ministers’ preference in writing is for vaccine-only certificates, so we know what they would like to do if they could get away with it.

The Secretary of State also made some commitments about not supporting mandatory vaccination for the entire population. The only reason that needed to be said is that, two weeks ago, the Prime Minister put on the table the whole concept of mandatory vaccination and talked about having a “national conversation” about it. All I say is that, if Ministers wish to build trust and good will, they need to be careful about what they say. They should not fling these very troubling concepts around without thinking about them. Words have consequences, both in terms of what happens in the real world and of the trust that needs to be built with Members of Parliament and the public.

What is proposed for vaccine passports is very limited, but that was the case everywhere they were introduced around the world. Everywhere they have been introduced, they have been extended. In Wales, for example, where Labour is in power, they have been extended in terms of the venues to which they apply, so anyone who thinks that Ministers will stick to what is currently on the Order Paper are, I am afraid, kidding themselves.

The final thing I say to colleagues is this: the vote on vaccine passports is not just about the regulations on the Order Paper; it signals how we wish to treat this House, how we wish to be treated on behalf of our constituents, and the direction of travel and the approach. If my colleagues wish to send the Government a clear signal that they need to rethink their approach, then, certainly on vaccine passports, they should vote against them. Send the Government a clear message that we can do better. There is a better way, and we should send that message today.

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[Aaron Bell (Newcastle-under-Lyme) (Con)]

It is a pleasure to follow my hon. Friend the Member for Rutland and Melton (Alicia Kearns). This has been a good debate and a necessary debate. Strong views have been expressed on all sides, and I think those reflect the views that a lot of us have heard from the country and in our inboxes. I believe in a proportionate response to the potential threat of a public health emergency, and that the precautionary principle applies, so I will support the Government today. Given what I have heard about the transmissibility of omicron, I think these measures will be for only a limited period of time, one way or the other, because it is very transmissible and we do not yet know quite how severe it is.

The response that the Government take has to be balanced with the needs of the economy, as many others have said, and we must be particularly mindful of the effect on the hospitality industry, particularly at this time of year. But it is not these measures that are affecting the hospitality industry. In fact, some of these measures will support the hospitality industry by giving people confidence. It is the virus that is affecting the hospitality industry. Sometimes I get the sense that some colleagues, and certainly some people who write to me, are arguing with the virus, not with the Government. I think it is common cause across the House that we all do not like the virus, but unfortunately the virus does not care about that and it will keep on doubling.

That brings us to the data. I am grateful to all the witnesses we heard this morning in the Science and Technology Committee, ably chaired by my right hon. Friend the Member for Tunbridge Wells (Greg Clark), but clearly we do not have enough data yet, particularly UK data, as my right hon. Friend the Member for Forest of Dean (Mr Harper) said. On case fatality rates, we heard that omicron is perhaps 29% milder than the original strain—that is from the South African data—and that in terms of length of stay in hospital, omicron stays are perhaps half the length of regular stays. Unfortunately, those are both linear variables. The R0 rate, on which omicron is truly outcompeting the other variants, is an exponential variable. That means that until it runs out of targets, it is going to keep doubling. We heard that there were 200,000 infections yesterday; that will be 400,000 in two or three days, and possibly 800,000 in a week’s time. We must not fool ourselves that we know how we can balance that exponential growth with the two linear measures we have found out about. We have to take a precautionary but balanced approach in the meantime.

I have sympathy—I really do—with the slippery slope argument made by my hon. Friend the Member for Bosworth (Dr Evans) and those who say this is the thin end of the wedge. I share the view of many colleagues that the House must have its say over the next two weeks if we are to take further steps along that slope or to a thicker part of the wedge. I would not vote for the thickest part of the wedge—I would never vote for mandatory vaccination of the general public, and I welcome the assurances we have heard from the Dispatch Box today—but that is not the question before us. We should all vote for or against these measures based on their content and our own personal belief in them.

On the so-called vaccine passports, I do not believe that they are anything of the sort. With lateral flow tests and recent experience of covid as alternatives, I do not think they should be described as vaccine passports; they should be described as covid passes. I welcome the assurance from the Dispatch Box that lateral flow tests will remain part of that in the future, and I will hold the Government to that.

Finally, on the point about rights and responsibilities of citizens that my hon. Friend the Member for Bexhill and Battle (Huw Merriman) made so eloquently, there are 4 million people who have chosen not to be vaccinated so far. Some of them may be disorganised, but there are undoubtedly many out there who have chosen not to be vaccinated. I say to all of them: “I will stand up for your freedom and for your right not to be vaccinated, but you cannot imagine that there can be no consequences to that choice once that starts impacting the freedoms and rights of others.” I therefore think that some of the measures that my right hon. Friend the Member for Elmet and Rothwell (Alec Shelbrooke) mentioned may have to be considered in the future if we get severe exponential growth of omicron.

In my last 10 seconds, I commend the Government for what they have done on boosters, and I urge everyone to go out and get their booster as soon as possible. That is the way out of this.