Co-operation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf

Lord Triesman Excerpts

Thursday 10th October 2013 Grand Committee

[Lord Triesman (Lab)]

My Lords, I join others in congratulating and thanking the noble Lord, Lord Luce, for providing this opportunity and for the fine analysis which he provided—as, indeed, have other noble Lords. I, too, have visited the region many times and been struck by the amount of change that one sees almost visit by visit. I share with the noble Lords, Lord Luce and Lord King, the view that turmoil in the region is due to a very apparent set of difficulties. Indeed, I have avoided using the words “Arab spring” because I am not sure that I see it as a short-term seasonal, flowering thing; there is a very long-term set of issues to be resolved, which possibly go back to the collapse of the Ottoman Empire and other factors.

However, these are nations that are key allies. We have perhaps given them too little attention, and that may well have been true in almost the whole period from 1981 onwards. They are under stress from their neighbours and the crisis in the neighbourhood; that is clear. Yet these nations are also strategically vital for the region and for potential conflict resolution in the region. It has been said this afternoon—and it is plainly right—that economically they are important; more than half the world’s oil and gas resources are there. That is especially important for the economies of India and China, and their development in the world economy.

Everyone seems to think that this region represents a vital energy issue for the United States, but when I look at the patterns of energy supply and consumption in that country I very much doubt that that is true. West Africa—as well as fracking and issues to do with other important resources—is probably a rather more significant issue for the United States. However, the region must be important for the United States, because the state of the world economy in general is important for the United States, as we all try to trade together successfully.

Over the years I have also observed the degrees of difficulty and competition between Saudi Arabia and Iran. I suspect that since Iraq ceased to be the quarantining environment in which Iran operated, we are also seeing some traditional geopolitical issues regarding regional domination being played out. We often describe it as being simply a Sunni and Shia issue. Actually, I suspect that there is rather a more orthodox and traditional geopolitical contest going on, in which Qatar has also involved itself.

The issues may well become tighter. The noble Baroness, Lady Falkner, talked about the price of a barrel of oil. Some people in the futures market are predicting that we may be looking at prices way below $100, perhaps going down to the $50 to $60 range—a matter which will concern the Russians as much as anybody else. I do not know what will happen in those economies in those circumstances.

The members of the co-operation council often have grand plans, but have those plans been realised to any significant degree? It took until 2008 to create any version of a common market, and it is not a strong current theme. Diversification has not been particularly successful, as has been shown by some recent LSE studies, and the members’ external trade relationships outside the energy sector remain very difficult. Perhaps the discussions between the European Union and the co-operation council, which have not prospered so far, may be one of the ways in which international trade relations could be improved. Is it the Minister’s view that this country’s best interests are served by bilateral discussions or through the European Union’s attempts to get a common arrangement; and does she think that that will have an impact on the way in which sovereign wealth funds are deployed given the opportunities which may be present in a much wider setting? There seems to be no prospect of agreement on a common currency. I do not advocate it but it obviously makes trade relations in the council area more of a possibility.

Security is plainly vital to the council. It has obviously no wish to remain wholly dependent on the United States, but it is also significantly divided on what its common interest is and how that interest could be deployed in the region. There is no co-ordination as yet. Does the Minister have a view on that and on whether the tensions which I observe between, for example, Saudi Arabia and Qatar about who they should involve themselves with in Syria are not creating greater division than co-ordination? The possibilities for discussing political reform referred to by the noble Baroness, Lady Falkner, and others seem to me very important. They have proved to be a source of difference. The shape of reform is obscure but what is plain, as has been said today, is that it is a key strategic issue. Some of the methods used in the Gulf to impose order have revealed what one might describe as the default methods of ensuring that things remain stable. I say with great respect to the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Stirrup, that it is inevitable that we will comment on some of those human rights issues. I think he said that too. We could hardly do otherwise given the kind of Parliament that we have.

What view should we take? A stronger organisation would be of great benefit to the United Kingdom. It would also be of great benefit to the European Union if we think of it in terms of the broader economic circumstances. For the strategic reasons that have been identified this afternoon, I suspect that we would all wish to see further steps taken in modernising and evolving, particularly in constitutional arrangements, which may in the long term and with a much younger population help create the circumstances for greater stability. Young populations often do not respond as well to repression as they do to understanding what their status and location are in the organisation of the country in which they live. I hope that the Minister will identify the top few objectives of the United Kingdom Government. As I said earlier, would they be best handled by the United Kingdom or would they be handled more appropriately by the EU? I am not making this point to reawaken our discussions on the European Union but rather to consider what gives us the best opportunities to create the circumstances in which we might all advance. Without seeking to interfere in the affairs of these countries, are there areas where we could more appropriately offer friendly advice on security co-ordination or economic co-ordination? What might we learn from the countries? I do not think that giving advice is a one-way street. You often get a lot of advice, which is just as valuable if we take it as seriously as the advice that we might tentatively offer to others.

I conclude by saying that I hope that we can make real progress. I do not know whether the ambassadors from the Gulf states get together in London. There is a great depth of experience. The Kuwaiti ambassador has been the Dean of the Diplomatic Corps for a great many years and is a very knowledgeable ambassador. It may be that some of the fora in this country might help us in these developments. I certainly hope so, and I believe that that would be to the benefit of us all.