Korean Peninsula

Lord Triesman Excerpts

Monday 21st January 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord Triesman]

My Lords, it is really important to debate this issue and I thank the noble Lord, Lord Alton, the chairman of the all-party group, for providing the opportunity. He, the noble Baroness, Lady Cox, and others, as many noble Lords have said, have often made it possible for us to give witness to crimes against humanity, inhuman conduct, humanitarian abuses and religious persecution. All of these have been graphically described by the noble Lord, Lord Alton, the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Hereford, and by the noble Baronesses, Lady Cox and Lady Berridge. I share the view of the noble Baroness, Lady Williams, that to make these visits and to say what is said requires very great courage. I admire that and have recently also been reading about Father Jerry Hammond and understand that kind of courage as well.

Sometimes it is painful to admit that terrible events occur in places where the United Kingdom has very little influence. It is not because we are indifferent to these matters but because of the historical position. We rightly demand to know what the Government are doing and what they have done. Ministers routinely, as I know, end up saying that they have raised all these concerns on all possible occasions, sometimes in the company of others. We all welcome this activity because we want to see it but in the same breath we sometimes have to acknowledge that we have a limited impact.

Nonetheless, I am wholly aligned with the noble Lord, Lord Alton, the right reverend Prelate and the noble Baroness, Lady Cox, and I think that what they have demanded of us, quite rightly, is that we never look away and that we always take the positions that are needed strongly. I also greatly admire the positions taken on a number of occasions by my right honourable friend Douglas Alexander. One of the positions he has taken, if I may just make this point to the noble Baroness, Lady Berridge, is about the absence of the rule of law and the importance of trying to argue on that front as well as about religious intolerance and repression.

The Question rightly draws together humanitarian crises and security. The dynamics of the internal oppression in North Korea are generated in large part by the belligerence of the state on regional and perhaps international scenes. It is surely a function of the grandiose posturing of the leaders of a small, militarised and impoverished state feeling the need to shore up their power internally that they will brook no opposition or alternative systems of thought, culture or media—as the noble Lord, Lord Black, quite rightly pointed out—or religion, art or indeed anything. It is a manifestation of a kind of paranoia, a fear of internal close-at-hand phenomena undermining them and a wildly exaggerated sense of importance, which I am afraid, some dynastic cults manage to produce among themselves. As the noble Baroness, Lady Williams, said, it is in part a product of a terrible history. It has given rise to what I can only describe as a pathology. The nation should reflect, as the right reverend Prelate the Bishop of Hereford said, on the issues of morality but I say with a heavy heart that I do not expect that to happen any time soon.

Yet, however grotesque or even absurd North Korean positions are, it is a problem which is far too large for the world to ignore. The critical question is who can potentially influence events. Who might impact on the risk of a growing nuclear arsenal? Who might successfully urge the end of the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles? It seems unlikely that the North Koreans will influence these matters themselves. Their dynastic leader is perceived to be unprepared for leadership and unable, even were he willing, to corral his father’s allies. This may well produce greater internal instability, which is capable of being translated into external aggression. Indeed, it is only the routine acts of local antagonism to neighbours that we can count on as the certainties: the intercontinental rocket launch that effectively ended the huge aid mission of the United States, the leap-day deal; and the links with Iran over that rocketry. I have no doubt, as has been said, that they will make progress on it. They will have the equivalent of a Kahn in rocketry and nuclear weapons, the influence of a Werner von Braun in missiles. They will find that kind of leverage.

There are threats of further nuclear tests: a third nuclear test possibly in the very near future. There has been the sinking of a South Korean warship and the bombardment of a South Korean island. There is the threat of spreading nuclear weapons, as noble Lords have mentioned, to rogue states, terrorists and non-state actors. There are the alleged cyber-attacks, denied by Pyongyang, on civil aircraft GPS guidance, although I think there is probably reasonable evidence that it happened. The sequence of provocations cannot be in any sense accidental.

Can South Korea influence events? I hope so. In an extensive and revealing interview with Al-Jazeera, President Park’s closest associate at the Institute for Policy Studies said that she had been principled, resolute and determined to keep her promises to achieve greater reconciliation and influence. Yet the rocket launch has become a major security concern. President Park stressed that it underlined the urgency for more diplomacy. I applaud that. However, she also notes that North Korea’s determination to sustain its nuclear programme and defy UN resolutions make it difficult. Indeed, the regime in North Korea has not only denounced her in the most unflattering terms, but described her predecessor in the past five years as bringing “nightmare, despair and catastrophe” to the region.

The United Sates has probably played, at least for the time being, the key diplomatic cards available to it to achieve the short-lived leap-day deal, which has now melted away. If I am right, and in the light of the lack of any progress, the various collapses of the six-plus-one talks inevitably raises the question of the role of China. United States and Chinese assessments may be linked in a somewhat paradoxical way. The United States appears to believe that influence could be created by aid and the support of humanitarian projects. In short, North Korea would become dependent on the relationship. The noble Baroness, Lady Cox, asked whether building bridges might be the right way or creating dependence as part of the same strategy. The noble Lord, Lord Kerr, rightly argued the same point just a moment ago.

It is not easy to read the Chinese thinking, but they may have concluded that, over long years, a relatively chaotic client will come to depend on the one steadfast friend it can probably count on: one source of trade, one source of military cover, one source of diplomatic umbrella, and a very powerful regional power to boot. It may be thought that this creates a kind of marginal stability which is better than anything else on offer. If that is right, the strategic choices of the United States and China are diametrically different. If the views remain this dissonant, then the prospects for much progress are probably poor.

China is investing in North Korea. Surplus military equipment flows to the country. There may well be technical experts working on the North Korean rocketry. All these approaches must cause us anxiety and perplexity. I believe that we need a clear sign from China: perhaps a vote in the United Nations will be that sign. Most of all, the approaches seem at odds with China’s own economic trajectory and its growing rise into a role as a world power in international institutions.

I ask whether the Government share any part of this assessment; whether they believe that there is an alternative dialogue into which life can be breathed; and whether the approach of the six-plus-one nations may be revivified in a more viable form. I also ask what is open to us beyond being the honest witnesses that I described at the beginning of my speech and the advocates for the victims of the appalling humanitarian crimes.