Brexit: Economic Forecasts

Debate between Lord Strasburger and Lord Bates

Wednesday 24th October 2018 Lords Chamber

[Lord Strasburger]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government whether their forecasts for the next ten years show a better outcome for the United Kingdom economy if the United Kingdom were to remain in the European Union than if it were to leave.

[The Minister of State, Department for International Development (Lord Bates) (Con)]

My Lords, the UK is leaving the EU on 29 March 2019 and will begin to chart a new course in the world. The Government’s proposals set out in the 12 July White Paper are the best way to protect jobs and avoid a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. When we bring forward the vote on the final deal, Parliament will be presented with the appropriate analysis to make an informed decision.

[Lord Strasburger (LD)]

My Lords, as full EU members we currently enjoy the best possible trading terms with the EU 27. Any other deal must, by definition, be worse. Our Government are striving for a deal with our biggest trading partner that can only downgrade what we have now—that is worth thinking about. Does the Minister know of any other country that has deliberately degraded its trading relationship with its biggest customer?

[Lord Bates]

I do not accept the proposition behind that question. The world is changing. Some 90% of the growth that will happen over the next 10 years will be outside the European Union. Six of our largest trading partners are in the EU, including Germany, France and the Netherlands, but the United States is No. 1, China is growing very significantly and there is Switzerland too. This is a great country in which to invest and trade. That is why we have the largest stock of foreign direct investment and why our exports and employment continue to grow, and I expect that to go on happening once a deal is reached.