Zimbabwe

Lord St John of Bletso Excerpts

Thursday 10th March 2011 Lords Chamber

[Lord St John of Bletso]

My Lords, I am grateful to the noble Lord, Lord Avebury, for giving us an opportunity to debate this extremely important subject. It is vital that Zimbabwe is kept high on the political agenda. I am also delighted that my noble friend Lord Dannatt was able to make his maiden speech. He did not mention it, but he and his son have been very involved in the charitable sector, particularly the protection of street children in Sierra Leone.

While much has been achieved on the economic front since I initiated a similar debate on Zimbabwe in June last year, sadly that cannot be matched by developments on the political front. Rather than repeat the many achievements of the coalition Government since the signing of the GPA, I shall address some of my concerns about current developments in that country.

It is well recognised that the country has enormous potential, boasting a comparatively highly educated workforce, a reasonable infrastructure and huge potential for agriculture, mining and other industries. The country also has minimal debt, with GDP growth expected to be in excess of 9 per cent this year. However, the country will be unable to achieve its full potential until and unless there is a clearer political road map and the brain drain of Zimbabweans to all parts of the world can be reversed.

In the past 10 years, more than $100 billion of trade has flowed into sub-Saharan Africa. That is 10 times the amount of trade in the previous decade. However, trade flows into Zimbabwe have reduced by 40 per cent from 10 years ago. For Zimbabwe to achieve its much needed foreign direct investment for infrastructure, mining and other key areas, so as to create much needed jobs and to reduce poverty, not only does there need to be much more political certainty but issues arising from the Indigenization and Empowerment Act, for example, need to be resolved. The promulgation without any consultation of the MDC of that Act, which aims to give 51 per cent of all businesses to locals, is farcical and a major deterrent to international inward investment into that country.

The noble Lord, Lord Avebury, raised the prickly issues of Marange diamonds, human rights violations and allegations of gross corruption. I warmly welcome the recent demand by the Minister of Finance, Tendai Biti, for a formal audit inquiry by the Zimbabwe Revenue Authority into the diamond proceeds from that area. Not surprisingly, there has been fierce resistance to the audit from the ZMDC and others involved in Marange. I am also pleased that an amendment has been made to the Kimberley process agreement, insisting on more monitoring and transparency of the operations in Marange. There have been many varying reports on exactly how much money is unaccounted for, but I understand that it could be as much as $300 million. Many believe that the fortunes of ZANU-PF have been revived by the proceeds of Marange diamonds.

Time prevents me addressing today the sensitive issue of land reform and the Lancaster House agreement. It is clear that it needs to be addressed. Sadly, there are continuing reports of farm invasions, which have a massively destabilising effect on the revival of the agricultural sector.

There has also been a lot of speculation about the timing of the next election. President Zuma of South Africa as well as the SADC countries have made it clear that they will not support an election until and unless all the electoral conditions and the constitution have been agreed and implemented. This will be the only chance for free and fair elections. At the very earliest, it could be achieved by the last quarter of this year or early next year.

There has also been a lot of speculation about the health of President Mugabe and how long he will be able to continue in his current role. If he dies in office, one of the Vice-Presidents is obliged by the constitution to take over. There is growing support for Vice-President Joyce Mujuru to succeed him. If she were to do so, she would need to call elections within three months unless there is an agreement between ZANU-PF and the MDC, as well as Jacob Zuma, to maintain the unity Government until 2013, which is the very last date by which elections can be held.

I am pleased that the noble Baroness, Lady Bonham-Carter, raised her concerns about the need for more freedom of speech and more freedom for the press and the media. While Jacob Zuma managed last year to negotiate for the establishment of the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission, the Human Rights Commission and the Zimbabwe Media Commission, these commissions appear to have been established in name but without any muscle. Can the Minister give an update on the envisaged powers and independence of these commissions?

Clearly the people’s revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt have resulted in a mood of paranoia in the senior hierarchy of ZANU-PF and, as many noble Lords have mentioned, it is farcical and outrageous that 46 citizens were arrested and charged with treason for watching a programme on the uprising in Egypt. The coalition Government of ZANU-PF and the MDC could never be an effective Government of national unity while the military and the police force are controlled by ZANU-PF.

Robert Mugabe has, on several occasions, indicated his desire to engage in more proactive negotiations with the British Government, and particularly with the Conservative Government. Apart from the assistance of DfID, can the Minister elaborate on what plans there are to engage with the Zimbabwe Government on agreeing a road map for the future of the country?

Finally, can the Minister also outline the Government’s policy on the future of sanctions in Zimbabwe? While I have always supported sanctions if they can be seen to be effective, I am of the view that our sanctions policy against Zimbabwe has been singularly ineffective. It has been used as a weapon to bolster support against the West and for the poor performance of certain parts of the economy. The likes of Emerson Mnangagwa have been egging for an early election and supporting the anti-sanctions rallies and the indigenisation campaign, blaming the MDC as being puppets of the West. I am of the opinion that President Mugabe is keen for Zimbabwe to rejoin the Commonwealth and that this incentive is more powerful than the current sanctions policy against the country.

I know that the likelihood of free and fair elections in Zimbabwe is a pipe dream. We live in hope.