(12 years, 1 month ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, can my noble friend please tell the House about the last time that the IMF forecasts for the British economy were accurate?
My Lords, I am not going to give a commentary on the IMF’s forecasts, or anybody else’s. We should wait until 5 December to see what the Office for Budget Responsibility has to say in its renewed forecasts.
(12 years, 5 months ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, I think that the Governor of the Bank of England is, as always, being very realistic and clear about the nature of the dangers that we continue to face particularly because of the eurozone crisis. This is precisely why we will stick to the fiscal course that we have charted; why it is supported by the IMF, the OECD and business organisations here; and why it is that we have 10-year interests at 1.7 per cent. We will do nothing to jeopardise that position in the face of the very real dangers that the governor points out.
My Lords, leaving aside the welcome reductions in corporation tax, will my noble friend please remind your Lordships of the three main supply-side measures promoted by the Treasury to encourage growth?
My Lords, the first thing that we need to do to support growth is to continue to have companies and individuals confident that we will stick to a responsible course and keep interest rates low. It is from this that all else flows. As well as tight fiscal discipline, it is important that we have a loose monetary discipline. That is the right policy prescription. We will target our other efforts into making sure that education, infrastructure and each of the key drivers of medium-term sustainable growth are supported in all that we do as a Government.
(13 years, 1 month ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, the first clear objective of the Government is to stick to the fiscal reduction plan that we have set to make sure that the UK’s interest rates remain low, so that we are not in the position in which countries like Italy find themselves today. It is absolutely fundamental to growth that we keep interest rates low and stick to our fiscal discipline. Secondly, we must have monetary activism and credit easing, a combination of measures that the Bank of England has taken by extending the asset purchase scheme by £75 billion. The Chancellor has said that we will come forward with further credit easing measures in the autumn Statement. The third issue, which will further be addressed in the November Statement, is, critically, to press on with supply-side reforms that will underpin medium-term balanced growth. Those are the three clear strands of the Government’s policy to which we will stick.
My Lords, if my noble friend is in favour of keeping an inflation target, why does the Governor of the Bank of England fail to match it year after year? If my noble friend is in favour of keeping that target—which there is no purpose in having if it is never matched—what are the advantages of inflation?
My Lords, the critical point is that, as my noble friend knows, the target for the Bank of England is a medium-term target. The Bank of England is wholly transparent about the situation in its quarterly inflation reports. In the latest reports, it has set out what the pressures have been on inflation in recent quarters and where they will be in the immediate future. Some of those pressures naturally come out of the figures over the next six months. It is quite right that the Governor and the MPC have and are committed to that target. It is important to realise that it is a medium-term target, and their judgment is that it is more likely that inflation will undershoot rather than exceed 2 per cent in the medium term. Indeed, that judgment is supported by the great majority of independent forecasts that I have seen.
(13 years, 10 months ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, I am sorry if I will become tediously repetitive, but if the questions cover points that I thought I had made clearly, I will have to make them again. We are taking far more practical and effective action than the previous Government did. We have extended very considerably the scope and form of the disclosures on bonuses that must be made. As to the quantum, I repeat to the noble Lord, Lord Clinton-Davis, that discussions led by my right honourable friend the Chancellor are ongoing, with the intention of making sure that bonuses are lower than otherwise they would have been and that lending to British businesses is materially and verifiably higher than it would have been. That is what we want in the context also of a vibrant and healthy banking system, which is good not only for this country but for the UK's global competitiveness.
My Lords, will my noble friend tell us whether bankers in New York and Frankfurt are being offered the same type of bonuses as bankers in London? Will he further tell us whether the American and German Governments take the same attitude to bonuses as this one?
My Lords, I am grateful to my noble friend Lord Ryder for enabling me to remind noble Lords that other Governments are increasingly following the lead of the UK and introducing variations on the measures that we have introduced for the taxation of banks. Since the announcement of our bank levy, Germany, France and other countries have followed with similar constructs. It is critical that we make sure that, while the UK regime is the toughest interpretation among global financial centres of what has been agreed internationally, we seek to work within the framework laid down by the Financial Stability Board and endorsed by G20 Ministers. Whether it is in relation to the US, other European countries or global financial centres, we will continue to work energetically with our partners to secure, as far as is possible, common standards in this area.
(14 years ago)
Lords ChamberI am very grateful to my noble friend. I absolutely share his view both on the depressing scenarios that the Opposition choose to paint and on the overall scenario for solid growth which the OBR confirms.
As to the judgment of the financial markets, I have looked at this morning’s numbers, and the UK spread over the German 10-year Bund has gone down from 96 basis points at the date of the general election to 60 basis points today, which is a very significant measure of confidence by the international markets in our consolidation plan.
My Lords, in welcoming the Statement, I declare an interest as the chairman of the Institute of Cancer Research. Is my noble friend aware that, in exports, the pharmaceutical sector is by far the most successful sector in this country? It contributes between £3 billion and £4 billion a year in surplus to our balance of trade. If, as seems likely, the Government’s new immigration policy prevents the pharmaceutical industry and research organisations such as my own from attracting the brightest and the best to this country under tier 1 and tier 2, will the Minister give me a clear undertaking, in the interests of the economic growth to which he referred, that the Chancellor of the Exchequer will have a quiet word with the Home Secretary to persuade her to change her policy as it stands at present?
I am grateful to my noble friend for pointing out the huge success of the pharmaceutical and biopharmaceutical industry in this country. That is why it is so welcome to have the news today that GlaxoSmithKline is putting further facilities into this country that will only enhance the position of the United Kingdom in that critically growing sector of the economy. I am sure that the pharmaceutical companies fully recognise that, in the announcement made last week by my right honourable friend the Home Secretary, intra-company transfers of employees were taken out of the immigration cap. That means that skilled employees of multinational companies can be brought freely into this country, and for those earning more than £40,000 there will be no time limit on the length of time they remain in this country. My right honourable friend is very aware of, and has recognised, the importance of skilled industrialists and others being able to get employment in our growing industries.
(14 years, 1 month ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, what precisely are the sanctions for non-compliance referred to by my noble friend?
My Lords, the critical point is that the sanctions that apply apply only to the eurozone members. They do not apply to the UK, which has a specific carve-out and will continue to have a carve-out, as now reconfirmed. There are no sanctions that apply to the UK.
(14 years, 4 months ago)
Lords ChamberI thank the noble Lord for his questions, but I thought that I had addressed the main point already. There has been no disagreement. Nothing has happened. It has always been the case that Sir Alan Budd planned to leave in the summer and that is exactly what he is going to do. My right honourable friend the Chancellor is enormously grateful for the important work that he has done to get the office up and running. As for appointments, it would have been strange to appoint somebody before Sir Alan Budd had even announced his departure. The appointment process for his successor will take full account of the need for continuity.