The Ukraine Effect (European Affairs Committee Report)

Lord Risby Excerpts

Thursday 21st November 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Risby (Con)]

My Lords, I unhesitatingly congratulate the European Affairs Committee on so comprehensively exploring the subject matter at hand. Yet events have indeed moved on quickly in the intervening months, and the situation in Ukraine has considerably worsened. Uncertainty around the world and at the strategic outlook of the USA has grown appreciably since the election there. Inevitably, the shape of American defence policy has been pulled towards the western Pacific. But, with Ukraine under serious pressure from the renewed efforts by Russia, aided by China, Iran and North Korea, it is appropriate that we look at the future of UK-EU relations in the overall context of Euro-Atlantic security.

I welcome the improvement in relations between ourselves and the EU, to our mutual benefit. I had the personal pleasure and privilege in the other place of taking through the legislation for the Opposition for the enlargement of the EU. I mention this because, during the passage of that legislation, a remarkable individual, the then Polish ambassador, presciently said to me, several times, that it was most important to give Ukraine a European trajectory: if not, its sizeable neighbour would inevitably interfere. In fairness to the EU, some progress was made, but some in successive Ukrainian Governments did not adequately adjust to the highest standards that the EU, quite rightly, demanded.

In this respect I pay tribute to the noble Lord, Lord Macdonald of River Glaven, who voluntarily wrote a comprehensive report on judicial reform and court structures in Ukraine after a number of visits. The situation is of course different today and I hope that, in due course, the European trajectory will be reoffered as standards improve. One matter in the report that needs firm acknowledgement is the degree to which there have been differences across Europe about help for Ukraine. A very small number of countries have opposed support for Ukraine; others have been erratic or lethargic. It is noteworthy that the newer members of NATO are, in many instances, doing so much to uphold security, influenced by their memory of the grim reality of Kremlin control.

The 1,800-mile line between Norway and the Arctic to Romania and the Black Sea has been established as defence against Russian aggression. Above all, Poland has dramatically increased military spending and capability and has just commenced its 250-mile, $2.5 billion border wall with Russia and Belarus, with systems powered by artificial intelligence. It has also acquired 800 American and South Korean cruise missiles, with a range of up to 560 miles. There are equally new defence arrangements in Lithuania and Finland, among others. These are, of course, EU countries, but we can be grateful that this, in effect, improves our security against an aggressive country so hostile to us.

The report outlines the successes and failures of the sanctions regimes rolled out against Russia, and, although there has been an impressive degree of unity across Europe in co-ordinating the introduction of fresh sanctions packages, this has not been matched by adequate enforcement. Exports from European countries to Russia’s neighbours have greatly increased. We should be in no doubt that this is fuelled by sanctions evasion, which must be closed off as it bolsters the Russian economy.

The very prospect of a new Administration in Washington has spurred on increased defence spending in a number of European countries, yet a country thousands of miles away, particularly preoccupied by the Asia-Pacific region, continues to supply the bulk of NATO’s defence expenditure. That is why we must work with our European partners to increase assistance, directly or indirectly, financially and militarily to Ukraine.

I welcome the report’s recommendations on encouraging private direct finance and investment to aid the recovery of Ukraine, a country with immense economic potential, but we must wield our own financial know-how to unlock that potential, and strong and direct government support demands that. The work of the EBRD and other groups is to be admired, but surely this is the time to advance a clear spread of British initiatives, and indeed Lviv airport offers such a clear possibility. The French Government have promoted investment in Ukraine, offering insurance to French businesses. I invite the Minister to look carefully at that French initiative and examine its efficacy. I also recommend to the Minister examining how key areas can be mapped specifically for investment. Businesses in Ukraine that I have spoken to, even large ones, find it extremely difficult to form partnerships with British companies because of the restrictive response of British banks. This is not currently a virtuous circle.

To conclude, just as we took the lead militarily and diplomatically, we must now lead the charge in preparing for the reconstruction and renewal that may be coming all too soon and persuade our EU partners to do so assertively as well.