Horn of Africa

Lord Purvis of Tweed Excerpts

Tuesday 29th October 2024 Lords Chamber

[Lord Purvis of Tweed (LD)]

My Lords, this is a part of Africa in which the United Kingdom has interests in terms of the global combating of terrorism. There are strong diaspora communities across many parts of the United Kingdom, and UK access to key Red Sea trading routes is fundamental to our economy.

It is also an area where the UK has values. A thread throughout this debate has been the humanitarian crisis, which we discussed last week in the debate of my noble friend Lady Featherstone; in the debate of the noble Lord, Lord McConnell, on the sustainable development goals; and previously in the debate on Sudan, as the Minister said. I therefore thank the Minister for bringing this debate to the Chamber—a causal effect of the Question from the noble Lord, Lord Browne, which called for it. Now that I have learned how these things happen, I will not forget that lesson.

For at least a little part of this debate, we had packed Government Benches taking an interest in the Horn of Africa. That might be because of the outstanding contribution from the new Member, the noble Baroness, Lady Harman. As the noble Lord, Lord Browne, indicated, our having in this debate the two longest-serving female MPs in British history is a great credit to this House. I also hope that her choosing this debate to send her powerful message on FGM, along with her campaigning, means that we will see a reversal of the previous Administration’s cuts to global FGM support, in which case her contributions will have proved extremely powerful. Noble Lords can count me as a supporter of her work—even though I am having to adjust to being in a post-ambition part of my political career.

The MoU between Ethiopia and Somaliland is of importance, and I was glad that the Minister gave precedence to that. This is not some form of debate about a race for recognition or a glib idea that, because it had been part of a British colonial past, it deserves our recognition now. Sensitive diplomatic talks, brokered by Türkiye, are going on between Somalia and Ethiopia, which are of significance. There is no clear diplomatic breakthrough, and, as the noble Lord, Lord Browne, and my noble friend Lord Bruce indicated, the alternative to diplomatic work is fearful. Therefore, we have to guard against language such as “there could be a backlash”.

This is an area where, as we heard, there has been the worst famine and the greatest number of displaced people in a generation, and very sensitive geopolitical talks are happening that could lead in certain areas to tribal conflict. We should bear those aspects in mind, but we should not shy away from debating the issue.

The Ethiopia MoU potentially recognises Somaliland in return for Red Sea access, possibly both naval and commercial—it is not yet clear which is the most significant priority for Ethiopia. However, it is not just about the MoU; in August, Egypt and Somalia signed a military, security and defence pact, so the two should be considered together in terms of sensitivity.

That is why it is important to recognise that the neighbouring countries and Somalia as part of the African Union peacekeeping mission should be relevant for consideration as well. There are Ethiopian troops in Somalia as part of ATMIS. It is not just that these are neighbouring countries; there are troops in country. The mandate for ATMIS is up for renewal at the end of the year. Ethiopia has said that it may not want to be part of it but may seek to have Egypt fill a gap as far as potentially having troops as part of the AU force. What is the Government’s assessment on the continuation of ATMIS or an AU-sponsored force? Will it be likely to have a replenishment of the force capability? Are there other countries that could be troop-contributing countries?

I previously raised in the Chamber that the UK was the lead contributing donor country to ATMIS, with its primary mission supporting our combat against Al-Shabaab. I jotted down what the Minister said because I quite liked the slight bit of officialdom—that the UK was seeking a sustainable and broader-based source of funding. That may be true, but the reality is that this is to infill from the cuts from donor countries that have pulled away from it. Are we confident that the force will have a replenishment of its funding? As far as I understand, that is not clear yet. I hope that the UK will be a contributing factor to the successor of ATMIS. Will we seek the continuation of Resolution 2719 as far as any successor organisation is concerned? I am very clear that if there are any uncertainties, any divisions, any complexities, the potential victor will be Al-Shabaab.

I want to raise two wider aspects before closing, because this is an opportunity to talk about some elements of economic development too; it should not all be seen just through the lens of conflict. I want to touch on some elements of debt, because Somalia is a case study of how, on paper, debt restructuring and moving away from debt servicing costs can look good, but the net impact is not necessarily as beneficial as we would want it to be. Somalia has had a successful debt restructuring: a $4.5 billion debt relief from the IMF and the World Bank that reduced the debt ratio from 64% of GDP to 6% of GDP. On paper, that is outstanding, but health spending in Somalia has almost halved over this period.

I know that this is one of the Government’s priorities, but when we are validly debating ways of tackling debt servicing costs, how are we ensuring that, if that is happening, there is ultimately better investment in education and in health services? We have seen that, if we move purely towards private sector reissuing of bonds, if it is not through concessional rates then there is likely to be higher rates. We have seen it in neighbouring Kenya, where there was a reissuing of bonds and 11% interest rates, which have now fed through the entire economy, and we saw the tension recently within Kenya. I am going to copy the noble Lord, Lord Browne, in asking for a debate, so I hope that at some stage we may have an opportunity of discussing the wider aspect of debt and debt servicing, because I think that all parties are now seeking to be seized of this and it is a valid issue to discuss.

Finally, the Minister referred to Sudan. He was very generous with his time yesterday in meeting Abdalla Hamdok, the former civilian Prime Minister of Sudan and leader of Taqaddum, the civilian front, with me, for a discussion. Abdalla Hamdok is in London to take part in the FT summit. I hope that the debates that we are having in Parliament on Sudan will have increased focus and interest, which will spill out to the public.

I have been pursuing the Disasters Emergency Committee, which has three criteria for triggering an appeal. This is the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. It has told me that the third triggering element is not being met—that there is sufficient awareness among the public. That to me is a self-fulfilling prophecy, but if we can do anything in Parliament to say that we are aware and want to raise it, I think the great British public will be generous if there is an appeal for it. Therefore, I repeat publicly my appeal that we can trigger this. The priorities are perfectly clear: protection of civilians, for there to be a ceasefire, and a political process. The UK, as not only penholder but with the presidency of the Security Council come up is in the prime position.

I close by recalling that in 2012, when we debated Somalia in Parliament, there was a London summit on Somalia. I give credit to William Hague as Foreign Secretary, because we knew then that, if Somalia was going to fall foul of terrorism, weak neighbours, displaced people and hunger, that would have an impact on Britain. We used our convening power and we put effort into it, including diplomatic effort; we did it on focus and scale, we led up to it and delivered, and we had funding. Perhaps for the protection of civilians in Sudan, a London summit during the UK presidency of the Security Council might be the appropriate thing that we can do. I look forward to the Minister’s response.