UK-EU Customs Union

Lord Newby Excerpts

Thursday 29th January 2026 Lords Chamber

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[Lord Newby]

That this House takes note of the case for a UK-EU customs union and the impact of connections with the EU single market on the United Kingdom economy.

[Lord Newby (LD)]

My Lords, it is a great pleasure to introduce this debate. It will see a number of comings and goings. We welcome the noble Lords, Lord Doyle, Lord Docherty and Lord Pitt-Watson, and the noble Baroness, Lady Gill, and say farewell to the noble Lord, Lord Offord. For the noble Lord, Lord Doyle, the House of Lords must seem like a haven of peace and tranquillity compared with his previous domain in Downing Street, not least in recent days. The noble Baroness, Lady Gill, brings a welcome additional Sikh voice to your Lordships’ House, and the noble Lords, Lords Docherty and Lord Pitt-Watson, bring a combination of business, academic and charity experience to our proceedings. We look forward to all their speeches today. We wish the noble Lord, Lord Offord, well as he contemplates pastures new.

The wording of today’s debate may sound rather dry and technical, but it deals with two of the biggest issues facing the country: how to improve growth and prosperity, and what our place in the world should be in the current turbulent times. I support the Government in making growth a, if not the, top policy priority. Growth in the UK has stalled over recent years, and this has led to constrained real incomes, weakened public revenues and, as a result, higher government borrowing. The Government sought to stimulate growth through a variety of investment incentives and educational and productivity measures, but these have been patchy and, even if eventually fruitful, will in many cases not yield real benefits for years to come.

There are many explanations as to why the UK’s growth has been so anaemic in recent years, but there can be no doubt that one of them is Brexit. There are many estimates of the impact of Brexit on the UK economy, but they all point in the same direction. Probably the best known is the OBR’s estimate that Brexit will reduce GDP by 4% over a 15-year period, that UK-EU trade will fall by 15%, and that Brexit has already had a negative impact on the public finances to the tune of over £40 billion over the period to 2024. Recent research by the US National Bureau of Economic Research suggests that the negative impact of Brexit has been much greater. What we know for certain is that goods exports to the EU in 2024 were 18% below 2019 levels and food exports were down 30%.

Inward investment, which is crucial to productivity and growth, has also been hit. House of Commons research has shown that FDI flows are well below the levels projected under pre-Brexit trends, and research by the Productivity Institute has shown that, post-Brexit, there are intensified regional inequalities in the inward investment that we are still attracting.

Polling amongst SMEs shows that over half believe that Brexit has made them less competitive globally because of shrinking access to EU customers and disrupted supply chains. And things are not getting better. The British Chambers of Commerce, reporting just last month, said that trade frictions are worsening. The reasons for this dismal picture are not hard to see: increased bureaucracy, including customs declarations and physical checks; competing regulatory frameworks; staffing shortages; and the inability of UK companies to participate in EU programmes, which have not been replicated by this country. So, Brexit has unambiguously hit growth and, if things remain unchanged, will increasingly do so.

In the meantime, the international context has changed significantly, and not in a good way. The Ukraine war has posed increasingly urgent questions for the whole of Europe, including the UK, about how it defends itself, both economically and militarily, against an aggressive Russian state. For the past year, President Trump’s re-election has led to a Catherine wheel of anti-European rhetoric and actions that have destabilised the Atlantic economic and security status quo. It is impossible to predict how the remainder of the Trump presidency will unfold, but there is now, I think, a widespread realisation that whatever happens, we will not return to the transatlantic economic and security equilibrium that we enjoyed throughout the post-war era.

This realisation that things have changed for good and that a new policy response is required has been articulated most eloquently by Canadian Premier Carney, speaking in Davos last week. He argued that the post-war rules-based international order has been upset and that new approaches are needed. He argued that sovereignty grounded in rules had to be increasingly anchored in the ability to withstand pressure, and that the key now was to build coalitions that work.

For Britain, by far the most significant coalition that can work better is that with the EU. The EU has responded to US threats to NATO funding by stepping up to the plate on increased military expenditure—in the case of Germany, dramatically so. In recent days, it has effectively faced down President Trump by threatening retaliatory tariffs if he imposes tariffs on Europe in his bid to take over Greenland. Post-Brexit, there have been some who have called for a much closer economic alignment with the US and further distancing from the EU. If it ever was, that approach is now clearly no longer a viable option.

The only viable option, in a world where Russia acts as a brutal aggressor, China poses a raft of security and economic threats, and the US is unreliable at best, is for the UK to rebuild and strengthen its ties with the EU. There is a need for this on security issues, on which there is already considerable progress, but there is also definitely a need for it on economic grounds. This inevitably means readdressing the issue of our membership of the EU customs union and the single market.

There are the beginnings of a recognition of that from the Government, who have embarked on a so-called reset of our relations with the EU. This led, last summer, to the first post-Brexit UK-EU summit, and agreement on a new strategic partnership with the EU that covered a significant but limited range of issues, including fishing, energy, student exchanges, and food and agricultural products. Progress on these matters has been somewhat fitful, but the Government have recently committed to reaching detailed agreements on all the issues covered by the new strategic partnership by the time of the next summit, which is expected by the summer. I would be grateful if the Minister could confirm that that is still the Government’s aim and expectation.

The Government have also signed a number of trade agreements with non-EU countries, which offer the prospect of increased long-term trade flows. Sadly, the potential benefits from those deals are extremely modest. Indeed, it is estimated that the benefits of even the limited measures in the Government’s reset will bring at least twice the benefits of the UK-India trade agreement, which is itself by far the most significant of our new trade agreements. In our view, the measures proposed in the reset, although positive and valuable, are not enough—nowhere near enough.

Our argument that rejoining a customs union with the EU is now urgently required to promote growth has been accepted by some members of the Cabinet. Wes Streeting has made the point repeatedly in recent months, as has David Lammy, who argued last month that such a move was essential to reduce trade friction. The Business Secretary, Peter Kyle, has also turned his mind to the issue in recent days. Early last week he described Lib Dem calls to rejoin the customs union as “utopianism” and said:

“What gives me anxiety is growth this year … that gives me more concern than … the customs union”.


However, he then went to Davos and said that

“it would be crazy not to engage with the prospect of a customs union”.

One hopes that he does now engage with the issue—and on a more consistent basis. Keir Starmer has also said that he is prepared to consider closer alignment with the single market, but not to the extent of returning to freedom of movement. If all this is timid—far too timid, in our view—at least it shows that the Government accept that closer alignment with the EU would indeed bring benefits to the UK.

No such timidity of approach applies to Kemi Badenoch, who recently said that joining the customs union would be “bizarre”. It would, she said,

“make us all poorer and damage British business and … farming.”

Given that this is the exact opposite of what British business is saying, the bizarre thing is that she seems to believe it. As for Reform, Nigel Farage is promoting the idea of a free trade deal with the US as the answer to our economic problems, and regards even the Government’s reset as a “giveaway”, which he will fight “tooth and nail”. He, at least, has the sole virtue of consistency.

Noble Lords will be aware that Liberal Democrat policy is to rejoin both the customs union and the single market, with the ultimate goal of rejoining the EU. Therefore, for us, the question is how we get there. We accept that, as the single market covers both services and goods, and the UK’s trade in services with the EU is large and in positive balance, being a member of the single market would bring greater overall benefits than membership of the customs union. However, we believe, from a practical point of view, that it would be more straightforward to negotiate a customs union deal, that time is now of the essence, and that we could get started on it straightaway.

We must accept that the EU does not see the prospect of years more negotiations with the UK on these issues as a priority, and is likely to prove a tough negotiator. It is particularly likely to be unsympathetic to any deal with the UK that seeks to cherry-pick bits of the customs union or single market that particularly benefit us. Any British Government will have to be prepared to accept this, and to explain it to the electorate. The seductive mantra of Boris Johnson of having your cake and eating it was always false. It would be a recipe for failure if we adopted that as our basic negotiating stance.

The EU, like the UK, is in something of a state of shock, given on the one hand the threats from Russia and on the other the new unreliability of the US. There is a new recognition that the whole of Europe, including the UK, must act decisively against these external threats, and a new willingness to contemplate closer working arrangements.

There is also now much stronger and majority support for getting the UK back into the heart of the EU, particularly among young people. This was recently brought home to me when, a few months ago, at the end of a school talk in Bridlington—one of the strongest pro-Brexit communities in 2016—I asked the pupils whether they agreed with my approach to the EU. To my surprise and pleasure, a forest of hand went up. They clearly see the EU as offering new opportunities for themselves and their community. We should not dash their hopes.

It is therefore for the UK now to set out clearly and unambiguously its long-term aspirations for a renewed relationship with the EU, and to prosecute that policy energetically and with urgency. The Government have made a few tentative steps in the right direction, but they are not enough. Today’s crises require swift and substantive action. The Government must now rise to this challenge. I beg to move.

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[Lord Newby (LD)]

I thank all noble Lords who have spoken in this debate. I say to the noble Lord, Lord Frost, that he will be disappointed if he expects us to stop talking about the issue, but we are going to stop talking about it now.

Motion agreed.