Further Discussions with the European Union under Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union
Lord Newby Excerpts(5 years, 2 months ago)
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Lord Newby (LD)
My Lords, this is now the 11th debate or Statement on the Government’s withdrawal agreement and political declaration since last December. During the three months in which these debates have taken place, not a single thing has changed. The purgatory continues.
For a number of months, when my colleagues have become exasperated that Jeremy Corbyn appeared to set his face against supporting a referendum on the Brexit deal, I have sought to reassure them by using the analogy of the five year-old schoolboy who does not want to go to school. As he is being dragged to school by his parents, he stamps his foot and says, “I don’t want to go to school! It’s not fair! I’m not going to school!” He knows, of course, that he will have to go to school, but his amour propre will not allow him to admit it. Only when he crosses the school threshold does he stop his wailing and run to join his classmates. Mr Corbyn has now crossed the threshold.
This is a fair analogy of Mr Corbyn’s behaviour, but until yesterday, I did not think that it applied equally to the Prime Minister. Yet this is exactly what she has done with regard to an extension of Article 50. She has said publicly, all along, that 29 March is a sacrosanct departure date. She stamped her foot as late as the weekend to repeat this mantra but she has now proposed giving the Commons a vote to extend Article 50 for an unspecified number of months. She must have known for some time that she was going to have to shift her position but she has done so with the greatest reluctance, and in a manner which will enable her to blame the Commons for the decision which she will have flunked. She should herself be advocating a short extension on the basis of her conviction that her deal will succeed, for without an extension, it is simply impossible to get the necessary legislation through in an orderly manner.
When I debated this with Brexit Minister Chris Heaton-Harris on last Saturday’s “The Week in Westminster” programme, he said that everything would be on the statute book in time, but apparently only by dropping half the primary legislation which we had previously been told was necessary and by implying the use of emergency procedures to get the rest through. Can the Minister tell the House which pieces of legislation the Government believe they will need to pass before 29 March if their deal is approved by the Commons? Specifically, does it include the Agriculture, Fisheries, Trade and immigration Bills? We have repeatedly asked these questions but from the Government, answer comes there none.
Yesterday, the noble Baroness the Leader of the House said in respect of Brexit-related primary legislation that we,
“need to ensure that this House has adequate time to scrutinise it in the usual manner”.—[Official Report, 26/2/19; col. 148.]
Can the Minister explain how we will be able to scrutinise the European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 2) Bill in the usual manner? We will not know until 12 March whether the Government’s deal has been approved. If it has, that gives a mere two weeks to take the Bill through all its parliamentary stages. Will the Minister acknowledge that we would have to break our normal rules in considering legislation if we were to get the Bill through in time, and will he apologise to the House on behalf of his noble colleague the Leader for giving such a misleading impression yesterday? Therefore, the Prime Minister refused to contemplate extending Article 50 to give time for her deal, if it is passed, but she has been forced to concede a vote on the extension of Article 50 if, as is highly likely, it does not.
The purpose of any extension, as is clear both from the Cooper-Letwin initiative and the possible rebellion of members of her Cabinet and government more generally, is to ensure that we do not crash out without a deal on 29 March. If anybody had any doubts about why they should avoid no deal, the Government’s damning document of yesterday, Implications for Business and Trade of a No Deal Exit on 29 March 2019, should put them right. The noble Lord, Lord Livingston of Parkhead, summarised the position brilliantly yesterday when he described no deal as,
“not a negotiating card, but an act of wilful self-harm”.—[Official Report, 26/2/19; col. 154.]
There are going to be votes on 12 and 13 March, which are likely to lead to further rejection of the Government’s deal and a rejection of no deal. The following day there will be a vote—which is likely to pass—to ask the Government to request an extension of the Article 50 period. The danger is that everybody then relaxes. That would be a big mistake because the clock will still be ticking—just for slightly longer. The Government will still argue that no deal is on the table.
Lord Foulkes of Cumnock (Lab Co-op)
Can the noble Lord remind me: is that not the ides of March?
Lord Newby
I am afraid I did not have the benefit of a classical education, but I know that the noble and learned Lord, Lord Keen of Elie, will be able to answer the question.
Lord Newby
Only in your Lordships’ House would the vast majority of people know the answer to that question. I believe the answer is yes.
Lord Newby
Sorry—it is 15 March. I am not sure whether that answer is helpful to the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, or not.
What are the options going forward beyond 14 March if an extension is approved? In reality, there are very few. We know that Labour will be supporting a people’s vote on the Government’s deal versus remain, as a way of breaking the impasse. So will we. We know that a mere extension does nothing to make resolving the backstop issue easier. We would be no clearer about our future relationship with the EU if, by some miracle, the Government were to get their deal through the Commons. As the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, demonstrated last week, the lack of substance in the political declaration condemns us to years of wrangling, during which time investment, business and jobs would leach out of the UK. In these circumstances, what will those Conservative parliamentarians—inside and outside Government—who are fiercely opposed to no deal and believe that remain would be in the country’s best interests, actually do?
We have been watching with fascination as, week after week, a growing chorus of members of the Government has been discussing circumstances in which they might resign and follow the example of Phillip Lee and Sam Gyimah. So far, they have all teetered on the cliff edge. If Ministers remain in post after 13 March, they will, according to the Prime Minister’s Statement yesterday, be still working in support of a Government who are keeping no deal on the table until the end of the extension period. Liam Fox, Chris Grayling, the noble Lord, Lord Callanan, and the Leader of your Lordships’ House, might not find that offensive to their beliefs, but many—most—of the Government Front Bench in both Houses would. Yet they seem willing to keep going along with it. Why? What greater good than an aspiration to keep the Tory party in one piece can possibly motivate them? Might I suggest that they heed the statement of Duff Cooper who resigned as First Lord of the Admiralty in October 1938, in opposition to the Government’s appeasement policy? He said:
“I have ruined, perhaps, my political career. But that is a little matter; I have retained something which is to me of great value—I can still walk about the world with my head erect”.—[Official Report, Commons, 3/10/1938; col. 40.]
Kicking the can down the road remains the Prime Minister’s defining attribute, but this is now no longer a credible strategy. Purgatory has its limits. For every parliamentarian, the day of judgment really is now at hand.
Lord Keen of Elie
It is comforting to know that Mr Corbyn has friends. It is also comforting that they can speak for him when he does not speak for himself. It remains interesting that he has yet to express his view as to what the question would be. As I say, at the end of the day you cannot have a referendum without a question.
The noble Lord, Lord Newby, also raised a question about the time for further legislation. Our position remains that, as with the secondary legislation programme, the Government are confident that primary legislation required for exit will be delivered. Business in both Houses is being scheduled accordingly to allow for that. I acknowledge that there will be a need to balance the requirement to pass vital legislation sent to us by the Commons with the need to ensure that this House has adequate time to scrutinise such legislation.
Lord Newby
I am very grateful to the Minister for clarifying that. Could he go further and answer my question about whether the Government intend to get through by 29 March the Agriculture Bill, the Fisheries Bill, the immigration Bill and the Trade Bill?
Lord Keen of Elie
As I indicated, all necessary legislation will be taken through in time for exit day, and that is our intention.
EU Withdrawal
Lord Newby Excerpts(5 years, 3 months ago)
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Lord Newby (LD)
My Lords, this is our ninth debate or Statement on the Government’s withdrawal deal. I do not know about hell, but there may be a special place in purgatory reserved for those who were condemned to speak in them all.
Yesterday I suggested that the Prime Minister might be modelling herself on Mr Micawber and simply waiting for something to turn up to resolve her Brexit dilemma. But I wonder whether I might have been unfair to her. Perhaps she has a cunning plan. Perhaps she believes that the only way she can get a deal through the Commons is to wait until after the EU summit on 21 March before bringing back any new proposals that have been agreed and to give the Commons literally a matter of hours either to accept them or face a no-deal crash-out. She could reason that, by then, MPs would be panicked into voting for a deal that they believe is not in the best interests of the country for fear of an outcome that is even worse.
If they were to do so, they would knowingly have voted to make the nation poorer, to sever crucial security links and—despite the vainglorious outpourings of the Secretary of State for Defence—to reduce our global influence. They would do so knowing that the UK has the power unilaterally to revoke Article 50. They would do so with a clear majority of the country consistently indicating that they believe that leaving the EU on the Government’s terms—or, indeed, any terms—would be worse for them and their children’s future than remaining a member. Some 80% of the country now disapprove of the way in which the Government are handling the negotiations.
If, instead, 70% or 80% clearly wished to leave the EU on the Government’s terms, one could understand why MPs might go for that option. But, given that a large majority of MPs agree with the majority of the population that Brexit would be bad for the country, why might they vote for it? Why might Ministers, who know that the Government’s deal is bad for the country, vote for it? Why might those on the Government Front Bench in your Lordships’ House who know that it is bad for the country—they know who they are—vote for it? Why does it look quite possible that the Leader of the Opposition might facilitate it? What is everybody scared of?
We know that some are unwilling to go against the views of their constituents—although the number of constituencies where there is now a majority favouring leave has greatly diminished. We know that some of them are scared of deselection. We know that a small number feel physically intimidated. We know that some want Brexit to proceed and prove disastrous to the Conservatives as an electoral force, and hope to emerge victorious from the wreckage. All these motivations are understandable, but all too often they represent a willingness to put party and personal interest before that of the country. It is no wonder that so many voters have given up on the political class as a whole, or that the rest of the world simply thinks that we have gone mad.
In yesterday’s discussion of the Prime Minister’s Statement, I raised two areas where the Government’s approach, in my view, is particularly irresponsible. The first was the Minister’s assurance, repeated today, that they can get all necessary Brexit-related legislation through Parliament by 29 March. Leaving aside the mountain of statutory instruments, we have Bills to deal with on trade, healthcare, agriculture, fisheries and immigration—not to mention the European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 2) Bill—which I assume, unless the Minister says otherwise, are all necessary.
These Bills, on a conservative estimate, will take at least 20 days of debate to get through your Lordships’ House if we are to scrutinise them properly, as Ministers say they accept we should. There are currently 26 sitting days scheduled between now and the end of March, and on the majority of days for which we now have business, these Bills do not feature. There is also the mountain of SIs, which could take, at a normal rate of progress, another 20 days. So will the Minister tell the House which additional Fridays and weekend days the Government intend to schedule between now and the end of March to allow these Bills to be debated? Or do the Government envisage using some as yet unspecified emergency procedure? If he cannot do this, I can conclude only that the Government’s assertion about following proper parliamentary process over remaining Brexit legislation simply cannot be believed.
The second area of irresponsibility relates to business, the economy and the labour market. For me there are few consolations in the failure of the Government to reach an end-point on the Brexit negotiations sooner, but one consequence of the delay is that the true economic costs of Brexit are now beginning to emerge. At a macro level, last Monday’s economic figures, which the Chancellor admits were heavily influenced by Brexit, show growth at an anaemic level, investment down, the trade deficit up, despite the devaluation, and every commentator believing that the prospects for the year ahead are even bleaker. Businesses are viewing the Government’s approach with “weary horror”, to quote today’s Financial Times.
Examples of this abound. Yesterday, 30 food and drink industry groups asked the Government to suspend non-Brexit policy consultations because the staff who would be involved are trying desperately to provide advice on how Brexit might affect their members. Polling the association has undertaken has shown that 10% of the sector has said that, under a no-deal scenario, they would simply go out of business. Today, the British Chamber of Commerce said that,
“businesses risk being left hung out to dry”,
by the Government and have asked 20 urgent questions, to which the Government have as yet produced no reply. Perhaps I could ask the Minister just three of them on its behalf. First, what rules of origin will businesses need to comply with after Brexit? Secondly, how will the new customs procedures impact businesses? Thirdly, if a UK business is in dispute with an EU-based company after 29 March, which authority will settle that dispute?
While this kind of uncertainty afflicts businesses, the staffing crisis in the NHS intensifies. In a previous debate I referred to the number of Italian nurses who are leaving or contemplating leaving the UK to return home. They are now being joined by nurses from Spain who are fearful that, in the absence of a specific agreement, of which there is as yet no sign, their time working in the UK will no longer count as relevant experience when it comes to looking for jobs back in Spain, so their career prospects will be diminished. In one typical example, four Spanish theatre nurses at the Royal Bolton Hospital have said that they are planning to return to Spain in the near future to avoid this problem. These are nurses whom we simply cannot afford to lose.
We must accept that, as the parliamentary and economic crises of Brexit worsen on a daily basis, our ability in the Lords to affect events is limited. We have an obligation, however, to do what we can, and therefore I hope that noble Lords will support the Motion in the name of the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, today. We on these Benches will continue to seek an end to the purgatory of the Brexit crises by giving people a chance to retain the strength and stability of our EU membership via a people’s vote.
Brexit: Parliamentary Approval of the Outcome of Negotiations with the European Union
Lord Newby Excerpts(5 years, 3 months ago)
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Lord Newby (LD)
My Lords, today’s debate is the seventh opportunity for the House to discuss the Government’s deal since the first debate on the withdrawal agreement and political declaration on 5 December—some eight weeks ago. We have had two full debates, three Statements and one Urgent Question. It is now just over eight weeks to the anticipated exit date. Yet over the past eight weeks we have moved no closer to a Brexit outcome that can command a majority in the Commons.
The only substantive change that the Government are seeking to the deal that suffered such a catastrophic defeat two weeks ago is that the Prime Minister is looking to find a way of keeping a frictionless border in Northern Ireland that does not involve the current backstop proposals. To date, there is simply no credible suggestion as to how that might be achieved.
With every passing day, however, confusion continues to reign, and businesses and individuals are voting with their feet. Within the past few days the high-profile headquarters moves of Sony, Dyson and the European Medicines Agency have been announced, but behind the big headlines myriad smaller companies are opening warehouses and offices in continental Europe to ensure that their companies survive Brexit. They are being wooed ever more openly by political and business leaders across the EU, with, for example, high-profile political interventions from Belgium and France last week. Furthermore, when it comes to EU migrants, the Polish Prime Minister has issued a “please come home” appeal—and there is every sign that it is working. When I asked why a popular local restaurant closed over Christmas, I was told that it was still making money but that, “The Poles went home”.
The Motion before the House in the name of the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, is in two parts. The first part reiterates our opposition to a no-deal outcome. Many noble Lords have spoken in previous debates about the costs of such an outcome. To show its utter folly, I simply refer your Lordships to the article in yesterday’s Sunday Times, in which it is reported that officials are having to consider the introduction of a state of emergency, or even martial law, to deal with the possible impacts of no deal. This is madness indeed.
The other part of the Motion reflects the fact that, over the past eight weeks, despite our debates in the Lords—and indeed our vote a fortnight ago—we have counted for little. But this may be about to change. The proposals which will be debated in the Commons tomorrow include one led by Yvette Cooper and Nick Boles which would have the effect of deferring the withdrawal date by several months, and would enshrine this in a Bill. As with every other Bill, it would come to your Lordships’ House. It is therefore particularly important today for your Lordships to assert that, if that is the case, we will deal with it in a timely manner and not seek to thwart it.
It should not be necessary for us to do this. Your Lordships’ House has always acted quickly in response to urgent legislation that has gone through the Commons. For example, some of us remember the passage of the Bill to rescue Northern Rock. But in this case there is clear evidence that some Ministers are actively seeking to encourage Members of your Lordships’ House to filibuster on the Cooper Bill if it passes the Commons. According to last Friday’s Daily Mail—so it must be true—Liam Fox has had meetings with pro-Brexit Peers to discuss such filibustering: a tactic that other government sources have also predicted, hence the many articles to this effect over the weekend.
I cannot believe that the Leader, the Chief Whip or the noble Lord, Lord Callanan, would countenance such behaviour, but it would be extremely reassuring if the noble Lord, Lord Callanan, could confirm in his winding-up speech that they will positively discourage it.
Lord Dobbs (Con)
I am grateful to the noble Lord for giving way. I am fascinated by his allegation—but, as he says, it is a matter of scaremongering in the newspapers. He has spent some time asking people to rebut this allegation. Can he name a single Peer who has been approached by Mr Fox to engage in this filibustering? I have to say that I am aware of none.
Lord Newby
It may come to the noble Lord as a bit of a shock, but Liam Fox is not in the habit of consulting me about secret meetings and who attends them—so, unsurprisingly, I cannot answer his question. Amazingly, Peers who might be thinking of filibustering in your Lordships’ House have not written a letter to the papers saying, “I have had this good idea of filibustering in the House of Lords. I am looking for volunteers to join me. If you are interested, here’s my email address ”.
Lord Hamilton of Epsom (Con)
I thank the noble Lord for giving way. I have not been approached by Liam Fox, either—but if it came to filibustering, I certainly learned a lot of lessons on the EU withdrawal Bill from the Liberal Democrats.
Lord Newby
I am sure that the noble Lord has learned many lessons from the Liberal Democrats: principally about the cost of every aspect of our leaving the EU, which my colleagues, 30 of whom spoke during debates on the withdrawal Bill, enunciated so clearly.
As I was saying, I hope that we will pass this Motion tonight to signal to the Commons the clear view of your Lordships’ House that, were MPs to decide to pass the Cooper Bill or any other legislation relating to the Brexit timetable or process, your Lordships’ House would deal with it in a timely manner.
The Cooper Bill is a recognition of what everybody knows: namely, that there is no way that the UK will be in a position to leave the EU in a mere eight weeks’ time with the full panoply of post-Brexit legislation in place. The inability or unwillingness of the Government to say how many Brexit-related SIs have been passed into law is testament to this. So is the withdrawal, because of its flaws and errors, of the mammoth SI which the noble Lord, Lord Cunningham, recently drew to the attention of the House. So is the fact that, with the exception of the Trade Bill, the various other major Bills which we will need to pass—on agriculture, fisheries and immigration—have not yet had even their Second Readings in your Lordships’ House.
In a BBC interview on Friday, the Leader of the Commons implicitly recognised this when she said, in respect of the need to get all the legislation through, that,
“if we needed a couple of extra weeks or something then that would be feasible”.
So an extension is on its way, one way or another. The only thing that is unclear is the basis on which such an extension will be sought. I suspect that if the Prime Minister simply asked for more time to try to come up with something which would unify the Conservative Party, she would be met with a firm rebuff by the EU. Even in the unlikely event that she was able to discover an alternative to the Irish backstop that satisfied the EU and her own party, the Government would need more time simply to get the necessary legislation through.
The other justification for more time would be to allow the people to express their view, with an option to remain in the EU. Your Lordships know that that is what we on these Benches support. I can only reiterate that there is now widespread support for a people’s vote across the country and a growing majority who say that, in such a vote, they would vote to stay in the EU. In arguing against such a vote and in answer to a Question last Thursday from the noble Lord, Lord Pearson of Rannoch, the noble Lord, Lord Callanan, said that in the 2016 referendum a majority of the electorate voted to leave the EU. That is of course not the case: 37% of the electorate voted to leave. I hope that in his winding-up speech the noble Lord will take the opportunity to correct that error.
There is no doubt that the country is now heartily fed up with endless Brexit arguments. There is a growing, and accurate, sense that while we wrangle over this issue, virtually every other area of public policy is being unaddressed. This week Parliament has the chance to narrow down the options and make some progress. Our role in your Lordships’ House is secondary, but we still have an obligation to ourselves and the country to play it to the full. I therefore urge noble Lords to support the Motion in the name of the noble Baroness, Lady Smith.
Lord Butler of Brockwell (CB)
My Lords, the noble Lord advanced a number of hypotheses that may or may not happen. As general principles, though, would it not be astonishing if the Government could not accept these two parts of the Opposition’s Motion? We know that it is the Government’s policy to try to avoid no deal: surely they must feel an obligation to give adequate time to this House to pass any consequent legislation.
Brexit: Statutory Instruments
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Lord Callanan
The Labour Party cannot have it both ways. It cannot on the one hand say, “We are voting against the best and only deal available”, and then say, “But we don’t want no deal”. No deal is the absence of a deal. If you want a deal, European Union leaders have made it very clear that this is the best and only deal available, the result of two years of negotiation. No alternative deal is available. If you do not want no deal, you need to vote for the deal.
Lord Newby (LD)
Will the Minister explain the Government’s complete lack of urgency in dealing with statutory instruments? We will rise today by about 3 pm; we normally rise at 7 pm. We are not sitting tomorrow. The noble Lord, Lord Cunningham, has graphically demonstrated that, on current plans, there is no way that the Government are scheduling business so that we can deal with SIs in a professional manner. Why is this?
Lord Callanan
The organisation of business in the House is a matter for my noble friend the Chief Whip and for the usual channels. I am sure they will, as they always do, work collaboratively and co-operatively to ensure there is sufficient time for the proper scrutiny of all the appropriate legislation.
Brexit: Withdrawal Agreement and Political Declaration
Lord Newby Excerpts(5 years, 4 months ago)
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Lord Newby (LD)
My Lords, it is somewhat odd to be debating an identical government Motion with a month’s gap, during which time, in the Brexit negotiations themselves and despite the announcements the Government have made today, there have been no significant developments whatsoever—a reality reflected in the Commons simply continuing its adjourned debate on the topic rather than having a new Motion or amendments.
There was therefore a temptation to simply repeat the speech I made on 5 December. I was attracted to this option by the true example of a vicar friend of my wife’s who, having preached a sermon on a Sunday morning, found that his colleague who was due to preach at evensong was taken ill during the day. Stepping into the breach and having no time to prepare a second sermon, he simply repeated the one he had given in the morning. He was therefore rather disturbed to see in the congregation one of the churchwardens, who normally only attended in the morning but who had had visitors for lunch who wanted to see the church. At the end of the service, the vicar greeted the churchwarden with some trepidation. The churchwarden approached the vicar, beaming. “Another corker, vicar”, he said. It was clear that he had not listened to at least one, and possibly both, of the sermons. But I suspect that your Lordships’ House is somewhat more attentive than the average churchwarden, so I shall repeat neither the speech nor the exact arguments I made a month ago.
The challenge in fashioning another speech, however, is that, as far as the withdrawal agreement and political declaration are concerned, nothing of substance has changed. I am unaware of a single MP who threatened to rebel last time but has pledged to support the Government this time around.
Although nothing has changed in the agreement itself or the views of MPs, this does not mean that nothing has changed beyond Parliament. The first thing that has changed is that the Government have stepped up spending for a no-deal Brexit. Given that the Commons will never vote for a no-deal outcome, as evidenced by yesterday’s vote, the spending of billions of pounds on an outcome that is simply not going to happen was always going to be a colossal waste of public money. But the way in which the Government have chosen to do this has turned mere profligacy into farce.
It was bad enough having a Health Secretary boasting—and I use the word advisedly—that he had spent tens of millions of pounds on refrigeration units. But when the Department for Transport prepares to give £14 million to a shipping start-up that seems to have difficulty differentiating between a roll-on roll-off ferry and a takeaway pizza, things have reached a new low. Having 89 lorries at Manston practise at being a traffic jam is merely the icing on the cake of a litany of episodes which make “Dad’s Army” look like a model of discipline and efficiency. No wonder the rest of the world looks at us today as it does with a mixture of pity and amazement.
Secondly, in the real world, businesses and individuals are making their plans and putting them into effect. Financial services companies have now moved some £800 billion-worth of staff operations and customer funds to continental Europe. The number of staff who have already moved is 2,000 and rising rapidly. Polling of business leaders now shows some three-quarters of them pessimistic about the year ahead, with Brexit by far their biggest headache. This, of course, means lower investment and will eventually lead to fewer jobs. The fact that manufacturing in some sectors is holding up because companies are building up their stocks against the possibility of a no-deal Brexit is at best a temporary relief.
In the public sector, and in the NHS in particular, there is growing evidence that EU workers are leaving or not choosing to come to the UK because of the potential consequences of Brexit. The organiser of a Facebook group of 15,000 Italian nurses working in the UK, for example, estimates that some 10% have already left, with another 10% planning to do so. Given that over one-fifth of London’s nurses are EU citizens, this leeching away of EU staff is already causing problems which the delay in getting to a Brexit decision is only making worse.
Thirdly, because of these real-world developments, people are increasingly saying that they do not trust their politicians to take the final decision on Brexit and that they do not wish to leave the EU. Over recent months, the polls have told a consistent story that a majority of the population now want a referendum and, in such a referendum, a majority would vote to remain. In the latest poll by YouGov, for example, taken over the Christmas break, some 54% said that in a further referendum they would vote to remain and 46% said that they would vote to leave. With every passing day, the demographics are bringing on to the electoral register a group of young people of whom 85% wish to have a future as European citizens. Even groups which have been traditionally hostile to a referendum are changing their minds—the latest being the influential business body London First, which on Monday said that, in the absence of a Commons majority for a Brexit deal, the issue should be put back to the people.
On the basis that the Government’s Brexit deal would make the country poorer, less secure and less influential—arguments that I made last time and I hope I have not repeated today—and in the light of these recent developments, I strongly urge Members of your Lordships’ House to support the Motion in the name of the noble Baroness, Lady Smith.
While it is clearly for the Commons to decide on the next steps, we should be clear what the options are. The Government’s deal is an option, but it is set to be defeated. No other negotiable deal is available, despite the probability that the Prime Minister will respond to a defeat next week with yet another futile trip to Brussels in search of unicorns.
Crashing out is a theoretical option, albeit one of a kamikaze nature, which the Commons has already, in effect, rejected. As the ECJ ruling on 10 December proved, this is not an inevitability if the Government’s deal is rejected. We have the sovereign right as a country to unilaterally revoke our Article 50 notification. Talk of crashing out by accident is nonsense. It could only happen if the Government chose to do so and the Commons agreed.
A general election is an option, but this would itself solve nothing and serve only to split Labour and the Conservatives further.
Going back to the people with a chance to remain in the EU is an option. As the House knows, the view on these Benches is that this is the best—
Lord Lea of Crondall (Lab)
Is it an oversight or deliberate that the noble Lord has left out the perfectly feasible alternative option of remaining in the EEA by changing from pillar 1 to pillar 2?
Lord Newby
My Lords, I do not believe that that is a feasible option.
As I was saying, going back to the people with the chance to remain in the EU is an option, and, as the House knows, the view on these Benches is that this is the best option. Every single development over the past month, and since our last debate, has only reinforced us in that view.
Brexit: Legislative Timetable
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Lord Callanan
I am not sure I like the noble and learned Baroness’s term “crash out”. We will leave on 29 March because we had a referendum on the subject and because Parliament, both in this House and the other, has voted on two occasions—in the notification of withdrawal Act and the withdrawal Act—for the UK to leave and for the referendum Bill to be approved. We, the European Commission and the Irish Government have made it clear that there will not be a hard border on the island of Ireland.
Lord Newby (LD)
My Lords, of the 600 SIs to which the noble Lord referred, how many have passed both Houses?
Lord Callanan
I do not have those figures in front of me. I will write to the noble Lord on that.
Brexit: Withdrawal Agreement Scrutiny
Lord Newby Excerpts(5 years, 6 months ago)
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Lord Callanan
We have not pencilled in a final date. However, we are well aware—and have made the EU negotiators well aware—of all of the procedures that will need properly to be followed. The withdrawal agreement will be an international treaty but in the withdrawal Act, passed by both Houses, we are committed to the meaningful vote. We cannot ratify that Act without the appropriate say-so of Parliament in the meaningful vote and without the appropriate legislation being passed—and that will require proper scrutiny. The usual channels listen closely and are well aware of the timescales and constraints under which we are operating.
Lord Newby (LD)
My Lords, will the Minister revisit his answer to an earlier question? He implied that a draft withdrawal agreement had been published by the British Government, whereas in fact it was published by the Commission in March. Can he explain why Michel Barnier is able to give, week by week, detailed descriptions of the negotiations from the perspective of the EU—without, presumably, undermining its negotiating position—but it is impossible for British Ministers to do the same here, despite the assurance that was given in 2016?
Lord Callanan
The text was published by the Commission, but it was an agreed text. There would have been very little point in us publishing exactly the same text. We are committed to providing as much information as possible and will continue to do so. I am really not sure that it is the case that Michel Barnier is able to share any more details of the negotiations with MEPs or others than is happening in this country.
Brexit: People’s Vote
Lord Newby Excerpts(5 years, 6 months ago)
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Lord Lamont of Lerwick (Con)
My Lords, it is a pleasure to follow the noble Lord, Lord Campbell, who spoke with authority, eloquence and transparent sincerity. None the less, I profoundly disagree with him. There are good reasons to argue against a second referendum—reasons that even remainers ought to think about extremely carefully. I was pleased that the noble Lord did not—except in his answer to the noble Lord, Lord Dykes—use the phrase “people’s referendum”, which seems to me an Orwellian use of language, designed to conceal meaning. He knows as well as I do the arguments against the use of that phrase, and so I shall not weary the House by going on about them. However, it is, frankly, a dishonest use of language to say that this would be a people’s referendum in some sense more democratic than the first.
In addition to other arguments, some practical questions have to be put about a second referendum. First, how long would it take to hold a second referendum? We have no standing law to permit the holding of referendums, so it would require legislation. People who have looked at it think that at best, if we were lucky, it might be a year before we could implement a referendum.
Lord Lamont of Lerwick
I am sorry, but I have only four minutes. The noble Lord will be able to speak later.
A second issue is: what would the question be? Some say it ought to be on the deal that has been negotiated; some say it ought to be on no deal. Would the choice on the ballot paper be between the existing deal and no deal, or for renegotiation on terms yet to be revealed? If the result was that we had to renegotiate the renegotiation, would we then have a third referendum to validate the second referendum? On what terms would we rejoin the EU—or could there be a fourth referendum to validate the third referendum?
The noble Lord did not really refer to the many assurances that were given in the referendum campaign, by all parties, that we would honour the result. The fundamental impression is that many people simply cannot accept the democratic result of the referendum. This, of course, is in the long tradition of the EU, which has in the past bulldozed through policies for integration, even when public opinion has been cautious or opposed to them. Since the EU was founded, there have been no fewer than 48 referendums held on integration measures and accession. Not once has a referendum been rerun when the vote was in favour of integration, even when it was by a narrower majority than that in the referendum we had. On two separate occasions and on two separate issues, Ireland had to run a referendum again; the Danes had to run another referendum; and the French and the Dutch were not allowed to have the result of their referendums on the constitution accepted.
Some EU spokesmen have been quite open about this. In 2005, Mr Barroso said:
“They must go on voting until they get it right”.
Mr Juncker, again in 2005, before the French referendum, said:
“If it is a Yes, we will say ‘on we go’, and if it’s a No, we will say ‘we continue’”.
Raymond Barre, the former Prime Minister of France, said he could not see why the public should be consulted at all about European integration. It was precisely because of this that many people voted to leave the EU. Tony Blair, who one would have thought could have used his experience and contacts to help the Government, has said that the result of a second referendum would have to be definitive and respected. Big deal—that is what he said last time about the referendum we had.
Some people say that a second referendum would be a healing process. That seems the most improbable argument of all. It would create a permanent division in our politics. People already feel great disillusionment and disdain for our system is widespread. I believe that a second referendum would be a disaster of the first order for democracy. It would undermine the very basis of democracy because it would suggest that a decision by a majority is insufficient to make that decision legitimate.
The noble Lord, Lord Campbell, referred to and dismissed people who say it would be undemocratic to have a second referendum. But it was the noble Lord, Lord Ashdown, himself—who has, I am sorry to see, left the Chamber; perhaps rather conveniently—who just before the referendum result said:
“When the British people have spoken, you do what they command. Either you believe in democracy or you don’t”.
Well, I believe in democracy.
Brexit: EU Commission
Lord Newby Excerpts(5 years, 7 months ago)
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Lord Newby (LD)
My Lords, in the Statement that the Minister repeated yesterday, the Secretary of State for Exiting the EU said:
“On the future relationship, we continue to make progress … although there is still some way to go”.—[Official Report, 9/10/18; col. 65.]
Does the Minister therefore now expect a draft statement on the future relationship to be available for the Council meeting next week? If not, when does he expect it?
Lord Callanan
I am afraid I am unable to give a precise timescale at the moment. We are negotiating. At this moment our negotiating teams are meeting in Brussels and we are confident of a deal. As soon as we have one that we can share with the noble Lord, I will be sure to let him know.
UK-EU Future Relationship: Young Voters
Lord Newby Excerpts(5 years, 8 months ago)
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Lord Callanan
The noble Baroness has illustrated the breadth of opinion that there is on the subject in her party as well as in mine. All we can do as a Government is to set out a credible, realistic proposal. We are negotiating on that basis and waiting for a formal response from the European Commission. We will negotiate the best possible deal that we can for the United Kingdom and then, as we have said, we will put that agreement to a vote in the House of Commons and MPs will determine whether it meets with their approval.
Lord Newby (LD)
The Minister is keen to talk about the Government respecting the will of the British people. How does that square with the fact that every recent opinion poll has shown that a significant majority want a vote on any deal, or lack of deal, and that if there were such a vote, a majority say that the country would vote to remain? Are the Government respecting the current will of the British people?
Lord Callanan
It might surprise the noble Lord to know that we do not have government by opinion poll. If we did, we might have some strange results, such as on capital punishment, which he might not support. As I said, we are taking forward the proposals that we put forward in good faith. We are negotiating on them and will put the result of the negotiations to a vote in the House of Commons and a take-note debate in this House, and then we will see where we go from there. That is what we have said, and we can only do our best in those circumstances.