Bank of England: Economic Forecast

Lord Newby Excerpts

Wednesday 6th October 2010 Lords Chamber

[Lord Sassoon]

My Lords, forecasting is not an exact science, which is why, among other things, the Treasury looks at a wide range of forecasts. Indeed, the Treasury publishes regularly the whole range of forecasts that are out in the market. The Bank of England, to its credit, annually reviews its own record in forecasting. The noble Lord may look, if he has not done so already, at a detailed analysis, which is in the August inflation report, of exactly how well the Bank of England’s previous record of forecasting has gone.

[Lord Newby]

My Lords, has the Minister read Sir Terry Leahy’s comments today? He says that the UK is not heading for a double-dip recession and the economy will be pulled into a stable rebound by the Asian economies. Will the Government redouble their efforts to promote trade with those Asian economies, since they will clearly play a major part in enabling us to grow sustainably in the future?

[Lord Sassoon]

I am grateful to my noble friend for drawing our attention to the important words of Sir Terry Leahy, the chief executive of our largest retailer. It confirms the remarks of such bodies as the CBI, which now says that the prospect of the UK going back into recession is unlikely, and the ringing endorsement on 27 September of the IMF.

On the second part of my noble friend’s question, it is an absolute priority of the Government to do everything we can to promote trade with the Asian and other economies. I took advantage of the House not sitting in September to visit India and the Gulf to do precisely that. Many of my ministerial colleagues have been doing exactly the same thing.