India and Pakistan: Peace Representations

Lord Mohammed of Tinsley Excerpts

Thursday 17th July 2025 Grand Committee

[Lord Mohammed of Tinsley (LD)]

My Lords, I support the vital question from my noble friend Lord Hussain, and speak to a crisis that has profound implications for not just peace between India and Pakistan but for the foundations of international co-operation in our water-stressed and climate-vulnerable world. I have noted a number of comments made by noble Lords during the debate on Kashmir. I stand behind every word of the 2019 UN report. I hope that the Minister will read it, and I am happy to provide a copy, but I must warn her that it makes for grim reading. Matters have only got worse since July 2019, and we need an urgent update of that report.

The violence in Kashmir, as other noble Lords have said, and the aerial strikes that followed between India and Pakistan earlier this year, shocked the international community, but the most devastating development was India’s unilateral suspension of the Indus waters treaty of 1960, a move that was less visible than air strikes but whose long-term consequences may be greater. For Pakistan, a nation of 240 million people, the Indus River system is the backbone of its agricultural economy. It grows crops and sustains entire communities. Suspending the treaty is not a mere diplomatic gesture, it is an act directly threatening the livelihood and food security of millions. Access to water is not a luxury; it is a right.

The treaty itself has no provision for unilateral suspension or termination. Article XII(4) explicitly states that the provisions remain in force unless replaced by a new treaty, mutually ratified. India’s action is a flagrant violation, as my colleague, the noble Baroness, Lady Gohir, said, of international law. Our commitments and principles are that agreements between states are to be upheld.

This move sets a dangerous precedent. If one country can arbitrarily suspend a decades-old treaty, what becomes of the entire framework of bilateral and multilateral agreements that underpin peace, trade and co-operation around the world? In other parts of the world, such as the Nile basin, the Euphrates, the Tigris and central Asia, Governments will take note of how the Indus Waters Treaty is treated; if one treaty can easily be cast aside, others may follow.

Beyond India and Pakistan, others are watching. China, upstream of both nations, is already constructing dams and diversions in the Tibetan plateau. Altering river flows will have implications for not just India and Pakistan but Bangladesh and the entire Ganges-Brahmaputra basin. Victor Gao, a Chinese commentator, recently said, “Do not do down stream what you would not like others to do up stream”. The logic is simple: today, it is India’s up stream; tomorrow, it could be China or another power cutting off a vital river.

The unintended consequences of escalating water conflicts, particularly with Bangladesh caught in the crosshairs, are too grave to ignore. It is vital not to forget that climate change is already compounding water scarcity. Suspending the treaty on preventing conflict is a reckless act and, as such, creates a fragile environment. We should welcome the offer from the US to mediate. I hope that the Foreign Secretary will follow suit; I would like the Minister to comment on that, on the back of the recent engagements with Delhi and Islamabad.

We urge the Government to go further and to act as a guarantor of peace. We call for the immediate reinstatement of the Indus Waters Treaty and support dialogue not just on the treaty’s revival but to modernise in the face of the climate realities and to look towards resolving the Kashmir conflict. The Indus has sustained civilisations for millennia. If the river runs dry and co-operation fails, it could be not just an ecological disaster but a geopolitical one.