Economy: Growth

Debate between Lord McFall of Alcluith and Baroness Warsi

Thursday 31st March 2011 Lords Chamber

[Lord McFall of Alcluith]

My Lords, I thank the noble Lord, Lord Hollick, for securing such a vital debate today and congratulate all the maiden speakers on such excellent speeches. I wish them well in their journey in the House of Lords.

Growth is essential to reducing the public debt ratio. Cutting the deficit without that being accompanied by strong growth will end up in disaster. Let us remind ourselves of the Labour Government in 1997. From 1997 until 2002, the Labour Government stuck to the Conservative spending targets and the UK net debt fell from 42 per cent of GDP to 29 per cent of GDP. They did that precisely by growing the economy, not just by cutting spending alone. There are economic growth policies consistent with debt stabilisation but the problem for this Government is that they have scared the population witless with their austerity message. “Vote for us and death tomorrow” is not a good slogan, so they will need to change. They realise now that there has to be a different mantra. They have to give people some hope and something to look forward to.

The recent Budget, as people have indicated, is a big gamble because it is taking more than £100 billion out of the economy and, at the same time, there is an ambitious 3 per cent growth target by 2015. That can be done only by investment. We need investment in our communities, our infrastructure and most of all in our people. Let us remind ourselves of the lessons of the 1980s. If the slack in the economy persists for too long unemployment becomes structural. That is why we need investment today.

The Labour Government left some good legacies for this Government—some positives on which they should build. For example, the labour market performance is better than in previous recessions, although unemployment is now going up for both young people and the population in general. Company liquidations and home repossessions are fewer than they were in previous recessions and the large depreciation in the currency has most certainly helped drive the export market. We are in an environment of historically low interest rates and it would be folly to disturb that in the present climate. We need to exploit the relative price changes and complement these policies by making use of the low interest rate environment and by complementing behavioural changes induced by the increased oil prices to promote a low carbon economy. We must also ensure that we maximise the boost to tradables by the fall, or depreciation, in the currency.

These are extraordinary times and the crisis is not yet finished, as we can see in the Republic of Ireland today. It has had its bailout but almost all Irish banks will be nationalised today as a result of it. The crisis is still working its way out in Europe—in Greece and Portugal. Given the crucial importance of the European market for our exports, the Government need to be careful in their attitude to possible future bailouts. If they do not engage in this process, that will further risk reinforcing the divisions with those both within and without the currency. There is no doubt that there will be implications for our foreign policy, which is very sensitive to the Government as we stand today.

Extraordinary times demand extraordinary measures. I would not be advocating, as others have done, an investment bank had it not been for extraordinary times. I called for the very same in a Guardian article, “Britain needs a state bank”, on 9 January 2009. Sadly, the Government at the time did not take that up, but it is very important if these objectives to growth are to be attained. If there is a European investment bank, why cannot there be a UK investment bank? If we have a network of post offices throughout the country, why cannot the post office network be used to ensure that the Government achieve their ambitious lending targets?

Today the Government are offering cheap finance. If we ensure that the debt is indexed, finance can be done at 1 per cent and we need only get money back to service the debt. Mention has already been made about the attitude of the Treasury to public investment. The HMT approach to public investment needs revisiting. Given the big gamble, the Government need to show boldness, as my noble friend Lord Hollick said, and not timidity. We need policies that are consistent with these ambitious targets and I suggest that one beneficial step would be to change the slogan from “Cuts, cuts, cuts” to “Investment, investment, investment”.

[Baroness Warsi]

My Lords, I remind the House that when the clock hits “4”, four minutes are up.