European Union (Referendum) Bill

Lord Low of Dalston Excerpts

Friday 31st January 2014 Lords Chamber

[Lord Kerr of Kinlochard]

Precisely the same argument could be applied to the second of the amendments we made last week. The House did not buy the argument last week and the noble Lord, Lord Cormack, was good enough to say today that, in his view, both the amendments laid last week were improvements to the Bill and did not impair it. If we are passing a Bill on this referendum it is very important that we do not pass a defective Bill that omits important elements. Nobody in this House has proposed an amendment to Clause 1(1), which says that there shall be a referendum. In my view, this House is trying to do its job and get right the conditions and rules for that referendum, which is a point that we will need to come back to and which has been raised by several noble Lords this morning. We will have to come back to how the referendum will be conducted and—the point I am concerned about, for reasons well explained in the first leader in this morning’s Financial Times—the timing of the referendum.

I believe that the crucial thing about the assessment called for by the noble Lord, Lord Turnbull—who is completely right—is that it would have to be authoritative. It would be wholly irresponsible to produce for the country a prospectus based on conjecture. If the country chose to leave the tent and found outside a landscape different from the one that it had expected and a climate much colder, the Government who did that would never be forgiven.

I hope all shades of opinion in the House will understand that the amendment from the noble Lord, Lord Turnbull, is precisely in the category that the noble Lord, Lord Cormack, was talking about—amendments that genuinely improve the Bill. In my view—on the Cross Bench one speaks only for oneself—this would be a genuine improvement and I urge the House to support it.

[Lord Low of Dalston (CB)]

My Lords, can I just ask the noble Lord for a point of clarification before he concludes? He said that he was in favour of the amendment from the noble Lord, Lord Turnbull, and against the set of amendments from the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, on thresholds for participation and assent. Are these two mutually exclusive? He can vote for both of them.

[Lord Kerr of Kinlochard]

I apologise. I was unclear. I was not commenting on the amendments that have been discussed—those put forward in the first group by, among others, the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes of Cumnock. I was commenting on amendments in the current group, linked alongside the one proposed by the noble Lord, Lord Turnbull, which are all to do with assessments to be made available before the referendum takes place.

[Lord Low of Dalston]

I am grateful to the noble Lord. That is very helpful. Thank you very much.

[Lord Grenfell (Lab)]

My Lords, I put my name to this amendment because I believe its purpose to be profoundly important. I do not have much to add to the very persuasive argument of the mover of the amendment, the noble Lord, Lord Turnbull. I merely wish to endorse a lot of what he said and hope that noble Lords will strongly support the amendment.

I am afraid that the amendment, while I support it, is open to two different interpretations. Therefore, I slightly take issue with the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, and stand somewhere between him and the noble Lord, Lord Foulkes, on this one. The amendment refers to,

“an assessment of the United Kingdom’s intended relationship with the European Union in the event of withdrawal”.

I am not sure that you can really make that assessment on purely normative lines. It has to be descriptive as well. If this amendment is addressed not just to Parliament but to the people, we are asking that the people be informed of the Government’s view of that future relationship. There has to be an element of the descriptive in that. That is the line that I have clung to in my support for this amendment.

The Prime Minister has said over and over again—and to the discomfort, to put it mildly, of a substantial number of his Back-Benchers—that he wishes the United Kingdom to stay in the European Union. However, what if the people in an “in or out” referendum beg to disagree with him? It is inconceivable to me that, with eventual withdrawal a possibility, the people should vote without the benefit of knowing in advance what kind of relationship he would wish the UK to have with the Union that it is leaving. I would have thought that to so inform the electorate was a simple matter of common sense, not to mention courtesy. In other words, does the Prime Minister have a plan B? If he does not, he must construct one and, having done so, the Secretary of State must publish it and lay it before Parliament before making any order under Clause 1(6). That is what the amendment would be calling for.

At the heart of this assessment, or plan B, would presumably be the end product that the Government seek to gain by negotiation—the best terms that they can obtain for access to the single market, to take but one example. Will the Prime Minister opt for the kind of relationship enjoyed by current members of the European Economic Area and EFTA? Will he take the relationships enjoyed by Norway and Switzerland as his model? I use the word “enjoyed” with some hesitancy, since EEA and EFTA members suffer taxation without representation, having to contribute to the EU’s budget without getting any money back, a reality of which the public ought to be made aware before voting. Or will he be aiming for some other kind of association? What kind of associate status would he judge appropriate for one of the largest economies in Europe and, indeed, the world? Whatever his intentions or preferences, in the case of withdrawal they need to be put on the table for all to see and discuss before the referendum is called.

We on this side of the House are not alone in calling for an eventual impact assessment of the actual effects of withdrawal on the British economy and on the rights of British individuals living both within and outside the UK, as well as on EU citizens living here—the noble Lord, Lord Turnbull, referred to that. That assessment could show that things would turn out to be disastrous if a Government who had taken the UK out of the EU had failed before doing so to formulate a proper vision of the intended relationship. That would be inviting our erstwhile partners to do our thinking for us. I strongly support this eminently reasonable and crucial amendment.