IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

Debate between Lord Lilley and Tim Yeo

Thursday 20th November 2014 Westminster Hall

[Mr Yeo]

Of course, that distinction is absolutely accurate, but it is also the case that China has said that it will see a peak in its carbon emissions, and it is suggested that that will happen in 2030. My observation of China and of the culture there is that if a target of that sort is set publicly and becomes the official policy, it is done in the Chinese Government’s absolutely certain knowledge that they will achieve that target and probably improve on it by several years. I would guess that we will reach a period within the next 15 years when China’s emissions stop going up and start to come down.

As Sir David King, the former Government chief scientific adviser and now adviser to the Foreign Secretary, said, the announcement by the US and China makes the possibility of an international carbon emissions pact “very likely”. I agree with that assessment, particularly when we see the progress—I will come back to this later —on emissions trading systems, investment in renewables and so on, and not just in China.

Last month, equally importantly in my view, the EU agreed a 40% target for cutting greenhouse gas emissions from 1990 levels for 2030. That was, of course, exactly the outcome that the British Government were working towards and they deserve great credit for securing that outcome. They have got the target for overall carbon emissions to be reduced without having that overlain with what in my view are less rational targets for specific progress on renewables. It leaves countries free to decide how they are going to decarbonise their economies. That was exactly the right approach, and it is the approach that the British Government had taken a lead in fighting for. As the Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change said:

“This is a historic moment. Europe has sent a clear and firm message to the world that ambitious climate action is needed now.”

The Prime Minister spoke at the UN climate summit in New York on 23 September and pointed out that the British Government are keeping their promise to be the greenest Government ever. I know that some critics say that that is not actually being achieved, but the truth is that the decision alone to confirm the fourth carbon budget from 2023 to 2027 was of great significance. Although there are lots of areas where we would like the UK to be going further and faster, that commitment alone—again, I will come back to carbon budgeting—strongly supports the claim to be the greenest Government ever.

The UK has more than doubled the capacity of the renewable energy industry in generating electricity in the last four years. That is a substantial achievement and a vindicator of the kind of incentives that have been put in place for investment in renewables. As we know, the UK has also played an important role internationally with its carbon finance commitments. However, we need the whole world to step up if we are going to deliver a deal that keeps the target of a maximum rise in average temperatures of 2° centigrade within reach. That is a big part of the agenda as we move towards the Paris COP—the conference of the parties to the UN framework convention on climate change—at the end of next year. Above all, we need to make sure that policies are in place that give business the certainty that it needs to make investments in low-carbon technology. As the Prime Minister said,

“we need a framework built on green growth not green tape.”

We will need a good outcome from Paris next year, and a lot of work remains to be done to achieve that.

It is worth looking now at what the IPCC has done. It was set up in 1988 to provide assessments of the latest peer-reviewed climate science for policy makers. The fifth assessment report, which has come out in various stages for more than a year now, is the most recent output—in fact, the very most recent was the synthesis report published at the start of this month.

Overall, the fifth assessment report was the culmination of seven years of academic research—literally thousands of scientific papers and reports. There were three working group reports, and, of course, a lot of inter-Government negotiation as well. The most recent synthesis report concluded:

“Human influence on the climate system is clear”.

It also stated:

“Recent climate changes have had widespread impacts on human and natural systems.”

[Mr Peter Lilley (Hitchin and Harpenden) (Con)]

How can my hon. Friend suggest that recent climate changes have anything to do with global warming if there has not been any global warming since 1997, as all the measures of surface temperature indicate?

[Mr Yeo]

Of course, with statistics, if we pick the year to suit our argument, we can produce all sorts of short-term pointers. Unfortunately, it remains true that the first decade of the 21st century—2000 to 2010—was the warmest recorded in modern times, so that does not seem to me to be convincing evidence of my right hon. Friend’s claim that the climate has stopped warming. In any event, I believe that it is still clear that there are impacts, as I have said, on human and natural systems that result from recent climate changes—when I say “recent” climate changes, I mean “in the last 100 years or so”.

Decarbonising electricity generation is a critical component of what we need to do if we are to mitigate the worst effects of climate change and, as the synthesis report points out, it is economically affordable. Effective implementation depends on policies and co-operation at all levels. That can be enhanced by the integrated responses that may come out of an agreement in Paris—responses that should link mitigation with adaptation and with other, broader objectives.

The Secretary of State said of the fifth assessment report:

“This is the most comprehensive and robust assessment ever produced. It sends a clear message: we must act on climate change now.”

That was also the view of our Committee.

We focused particularly on the contribution of working group I to the IPCC report. There were, of course, three working groups. One was on the physical science basis; the second was on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability; and the third was on mitigation. The conclusion of working group I was that it was now more confident than ever that greenhouse gas released as a result of deforestation and from fossil fuels has caused much of the warming seen in the latter half of the 20th century and, if unabated, those greenhouse gases will continue to drive climate change in the future.

The IPCC was criticised for being political and lacking transparency, so my Committee looked particularly into the process and the robustness of the IPCC’s conclusions. Our conclusion was that the IPCC report provides the best summary of prevailing scientific opinion on climate change currently available to policy makers. It is the most exhaustive and heavily scrutinised report so far. We also consider that there is a high level of statistical confidence in the report and that the overall thrust and conclusions of the report are widely supported in the scientific community.

Of course, as in all areas of science that involve highly complex and dynamic systems, there are uncertainties, but those uncertainties do not cast into doubt the overwhelmingly clear picture of a climate system changing as a result of human activity.

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[Mr Yeo]

Thank you, Mr Walker, and welcome to the Chair. It will be a pleasure to serve under your chairmanship. I particularly wish to draw attention to the fact that I am correctly dressed.

To reflect on this helpful and revealing debate, I should say that I am sorry that we have not attracted the interest of anyone who is not, as it were, under duress to attend for one reason or another. Nevertheless, I dare say that a few dedicated outsiders will read our proceedings.

May I mention to my right hon. Friend the Member for Hitchin and Harpenden (Mr Lilley) that the IPCC was established in 1988, not in 1997 as he suggested? I find the notion of a giant conspiracy fascinating and in some ways rather hilarious. The idea that thousands of scientists and politicians are somehow colluding is difficult to regard as credible.

I think that my right hon. Friend bases his view on omissions from the “Summary for Policymakers” of some of the contents of the full report. It is, however, a strange form of conspiracy if a few policy makers get together and say, “Okay, we’re going to publish thousands of pages of documents, papers and the conclusions of an endless amount of work around the world in their entirety, so anyone can look at them. But then we’re going to get together and, because we don’t want all this work to be actually read, understood or communicated outside, we’re going to publish a summary that does not reflect accurately what is in the main document.” In my experience, that is not how most conspirators proceed.

[Mr Lilley]

May I make it absolutely clear that my hon. Friend has invented the idea of a conspiracy? Neither the hon. Member for Blackley and Broughton nor I have mentioned any conspiracy. All we have said is that the summary is a work of advocacy and, in common with most such works, it leaves out factors and bits of evidence that do not reinforce the case that it wants to get over. That is all.

[Mr Yeo]

I am grateful to my right hon. Friend for his reassurance that he is not alleging that any conspiracy has taken place. I am sure that those people who mistakenly thought that that was what he said will now stand duly abashed.

I believe that the IPCC process is an extraordinarily open one. It could hardly go to greater lengths to ensure that every bit of evidence is available for public scrutiny and that every conclusion has been examined, re-examined and peer reviewed almost endlessly. For the avoidance of doubt, I should say that my conclusions about the IPCC process—and, I believe, my Committee’s conclusions about the fifth assessment report—are based on our careful consideration of the actual report in its entirety. We have not relied for any of our conclusions on a mere scrutiny of the “Summary for Policymakers”. That is all I need to say about that debate, so I will move seamlessly on to our second debate.

Energy Bill

Debate between Lord Lilley and Tim Yeo

Tuesday 4th June 2013 Commons Chamber

[Mr Yeo]

I recommend that my right hon. Friend look at the latest report from National Grid, which shows that the amount of back-up required for wind farms is extraordinarily low. More importantly, on the broader point about costs, I am sure he will be aware—because he takes a close interest in these matters—that nothing in the amendment would affect the cost of electricity between now and 2020 because the support for low-carbon technologies during that period is capped by the levy control framework. The amendment would have no impact on electricity prices for consumers for the next seven years.

I am sure that my right hon. Friend also takes a close interest in what electricity prices will be in the 2020s, and it is theoretically possible that approving this amendment could lead to higher prices during that period. That would depend heavily on an assumption about what gas prices will be doing in the 2020s, and I would not be confident about making such a forecast. If he is really concerned about the cost to consumers—a concern that I share—he should address his attention in the short term to the Treasury, which has imposed a minimum floor price for carbon. That will have the effect of raising electricity prices before 2020. It is an imposition that applies only in the United Kingdom and therefore puts us at a competitive disadvantage with the rest of the European Union. I hope he will join me in making continued representations to the Treasury to drop that policy.

As currently drafted, the Energy Bill gives the Secretary of State a power to set a decarbonisation target for 2030, but it does not compel him to do so. It also prevents him from exercising that power before 2016. Suggestions that the amendment would force him to set the target at 50 grams per kWh in 2030 are mistaken. It would merely require him to set it in accordance with advice received from the Committee on Climate Change. There is nothing in the amendment that would require him to set a particular figure. If the Committee were to recommend a figure higher than 50 grams per kWh, the Secretary of State would have to heed that advice. If he did not do so, he would have to explain why.

The Committee on Climate Change itself would not have a completely free hand in determining its advice to the Government. It would still have to take account of all the matters referred to in clause 2(2). I remind the House of five of those key points. The Committee would have to take account of

“scientific knowledge about climate change…technology relevant to the generation and storage of electricity…economic circumstances, and in particular the likely impact on the economy and the competitiveness of particular sectors of the economy…fiscal circumstances, and in particular the likely impact on…public borrowing”

and

“social circumstances, and in particular the likely impact on fuel poverty”.

[Mr Peter Lilley (Hitchin and Harpenden) (Con)]

My hon. Friend began by saying that the whole purpose of his amendment was to provide certainty. He is now saying, “This won’t be certain because it will depend on half a dozen things that we cannot forecast.” Why does he imagine that people will invest on the basis of a legal obligation to do something in 2030 that it is impossible to do now, and that they will not invest on the basis of subsidies that are available now and that can be removed only as a result of breach of contract?

[Mr Yeo]

I am not sure that I completely follow my right hon. Friend’s concerns. Those points in the Bill will simply ensure that, in the event of an unexpected substantial change in economic circumstances or the emergence of a new technology, the Committee on Climate Change would have an opportunity to review its advice. Indeed, I would hope that it would want to do so in normal circumstances anyway. Moreover, investors are accustomed to having to adjust their decisions and expectations in the light of changing events.

I am seeking, through the amendment, to remove another element of uncertainty. I want to ensure that the Government’s current commitment to moving down a pathway of slowly decarbonising the British economy and reducing its dependence on fossil fuels, which is particularly relevant to the electricity generating industry, is reinforced by accepting an obligation to set the target in secondary legislation during the next 10 months. I believe that that would be wholly helpful to investors. It would give them a more secure and predictable framework in which to make their decisions, as well as having an effect on the returns that they might expect.

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

Debate between Lord Lilley and Tim Yeo

Thursday 18th April 2013 Westminster Hall

[Mr Lilley]

I do not know why the hon. Gentleman raises the issue of 12-year-olds being employed in any particular industry; I am not in favour of that. Do I accept that there are externalities involved in the activities? Yes I do, and, for the sake of argument, I will accept all the externalities that are attributed to CO_2. I am simply pointing to the reality that India and China, with half the population of the world, Africa, with a further major share of the world, and Latin America are going to develop by harnessing fossil fuels. We will not prevent them from doing so unless we ourselves are prepared to subsidise the difference between fossil fuels and the cost of renewable alternatives.

[Mr Yeo]

rose—

[Sir Malcolm Bruce]

Will the right hon. Gentleman give way?

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[Mr Lilley]

The Chinese, whom we will come on to in the next debate, are planning to produce, by 2030, 11% of their energy from renewables. The bulk of it will be hydroelectric, which is a conventional source of electricity; no one would argue against that. Where countries have hydro power and they can harness it, they should go ahead and do so. That has always been happening and it will happen anyway. It is happening regardless of whether CO₂ is a serious problem for them. Hon. Members must recognise that the world is developing using fossil fuels. We can wish that that was not the case. We can finance great jamborees every year or two. We can all get together and pretend to ignore it, but as long as those in the developing world are free to exploit fossil fuels and any renewables they find economic or choose to inflict on themselves, America will not sign up either. If America, China, India, Canada, Russia and Japan will not sign up, it seems slightly perverse of us to assume that by gathering together we are somehow going to overcome that resistance; we will not.

[Mr Yeo]

For the sake of accuracy—I may have misheard my right hon. Friend—let me say that the target in China is for 11.4% of its energy mix to come from non-fossil sources by 2015. That is in less than three years from now. I might have misheard my right hon. Friend, but I think that he mentioned a later date. May I also put on record that China’s explicit goal is to reduce substantially the use of coal as a proportion of its total energy mix over the next two decades, and it is already the world’s largest investor in renewable energy sources?

[Mr Lilley]

I take all those points, and I probably did give the wrong date for the Chinese. However, I remember also seeing their figure for further ahead, which was not much higher. There would be a large increase in the amount of renewables, but not in the percentage of renewables, and still the vast bulk of their energy will come from conventional sources.

We can make ourselves feel better by bigging up in our mind the amount of renewables and by getting warm feelings about the sight of solar panels bringing light to small villages in isolated parts of Africa. However, if we seriously imagine that these great jamborees will result in an agreement by the countries in the developing world to constrain significantly their ability to grow by constraining their ability to use fossil fuels, we are living in a dream world, and everything that has happened in this debate suggests that the majority of Members present for it are part of that dream.

Low-carbon Growth Links (China)

Debate between Lord Lilley and Tim Yeo

Thursday 18th April 2013 Westminster Hall

[Mr Yeo]

With the leave of the House, I thank all my colleagues for contributing so constructively to this brief but important debate. There were moments when I wondered whether my right hon. Friend the Member for Hitchin and Harpenden (Mr Lilley) had been reading the Committee’s report. I do not want to suggest—

[Mr Lilley]

May I intervene?

[Mr Yeo]

Sadly, I do not have time.

[Mr Lilley]

All my quotes were direct from the report.

[Mr Yeo]

I will check Hansard in detail. My right hon. Friend also said that, at Cambridge university in the 1960s, China was held up as a model that Britain should follow. I also attended Cambridge university in the 1960s, but I do not recall anyone at the university suggesting that at any time.

I deeply regret my right hon. Friend’s low opinion of the expertise of British business. He obviously assumes—I am sad to hear this from a former Trade and Industry Secretary—that German, French and Italian business is so superior to British business that it is not worth our making any effort at all to try to capture a tiny segment of the business in the largest and one of the most rapidly growing markets in the world. I deplore that pessimism and do not share it, and I am delighted that the rest of the Committee actually visited China. I would be interested to know when my right hon. Friend last went there, because if he had visited in the past year or two he would have seen a picture very different from that which he painted.

I am grateful to everyone for taking part in the debate and I am sure we will return to the subject. We should vigorously pursue opportunities for sharing our expertise, including in the important area of emissions trading, where we are among the leaders in the world. I welcome the support for that aim from those on both Front Benches.

Question put and agreed to.