Climate Risk Models

Debate between Lord Lilley and Baroness Vere of Norbiton

Thursday 25th January 2024 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Vere of Norbiton (Con)]

Of course, my officials and those who work for the independent regulators will look at all evidence, and one often finds that it is very conflicting. The challenges of the models used have been clearly established. There is a higher number of independent transmission channels than previously thought and a lack of historical data; and, of course, one has to anticipate a firm’s reaction to climate change over the longer term. All those things are being considered. This is an evolving science, as I think all noble Lords will agree. However, I go back to the NGFS, of which the Bank of England was a founding member: it consists of 134 central bankers and supervisors from around the world, who are all working together to improve the available scenarios.

[Lord Lilley (Con)]

My Lords, is my noble friend the Minister aware that the economic chapter of the IPCC report on climate change begins:

“For most economic sectors, the impact of climate change will be small relative to the impacts of other drivers … Changes in population, age, income, technology, relative prices, lifestyle, regulation, governance, and many other aspects of socioeconomic development will have an impact on the supply and demand of economic goods and services that is large relative to the impact of climate change”?


Why is the Bank of England fussing with this, rather than concentrating on the real problem of avoiding financial crises such as occurred in 2008?

[Baroness Vere of Norbiton (Con)]

No, I do not quite agree with my noble friend, because the Bank of England has a responsibility to look at all risks. He pointed out many risks that are not climate related. However, underlying all of this is that all those risks—and, indeed, climate risk—are interdependent. One cannot single out one at the expense of others; one has to consider them all in the round. That is why we make it clear when we correspond with the Bank of England and the independent regulators that climate risk is just one of the many risks to our financial system that need to be considered.

Airports National Policy Statement

Debate between Lord Lilley and Baroness Vere of Norbiton

Monday 18th January 2021 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Vere of Norbiton (Con)]

I agree with my noble friend that this year is very important in terms of ensuring that we capitalise on our role as president of COP 26 and establish the sixth carbon budget in law, which will be done by June 2021. The role of international aviation within that is being very carefully considered by my department.

[Lord Lilley (Con)]

My Lords, of all the ways of restricting carbon dioxide emissions from air travel, is not restricting the capacity of airports the silliest? Its main consequence would be that more planes would be stacked up above busy airports, using more fuel, and all other flights to those destinations would have to carry more fuel just in case they were stacked up too.

[Baroness Vere of Norbiton (Con)]

I agree with my noble friend that there are many ways that we can tackle carbon emissions. He mentions stacking. That is why we are taking forward the airspace modernisation plan, which will have capacity benefits for airports, reduce costs for airlines and reduce delays for passengers—because stacking will become a thing of the past.

Freight Industry: Delays

Debate between Lord Lilley and Baroness Vere of Norbiton

Thursday 17th December 2020 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Vere of Norbiton (Con)]

I reassure the noble Lord that we are working very closely with the Kent Resilience Forum and, indeed, with all the operators of the various contingency elements within Kent. We are looking at this and making sure that there are sufficient lavatory arrangements, that the sites are Covid secure and that drivers’ welfare is as good as it can be.

[Lord Lilley (Con)]

Can my noble friend confirm that delays at Dover are not unusual? On average, Operation Stack has had to be implemented 11 times a year over the last 20 years. In 2015, it was in operation for 23 consecutive days and queues of 7,000 lorries built up, with delays of 35 hours. It did not bring the United Kingdom to a halt, and nor will any teething problems with the new system. It did not attract much attention from those who now weep salt tears, with almost ghoulish delight, in anticipation of any problems that may temporarily occur.

[Baroness Vere of Norbiton (Con)]

It is the case that traffic across the short straits is very frequent. There is a large volume of it and when small incidents occur, back-ups can happen. Actually, at this moment we are facing not only post-Covid freight movements but pre-holiday stock building, end of transition period stock building and increased spending on consumer goods. So, while we recognise that these factors will play an important role as we head into January, I believe that, if hauliers and traders are ready, we can minimise any delays.

Airport Expansion

Debate between Lord Lilley and Baroness Vere of Norbiton

Monday 2nd March 2020 Lords Chamber

[Lord Lilley (Con)]

My Lords, this is a bizarre judgment, given that the previous court ruled that the Paris judgment was not legally binding, but is not the real root of the problem the fact that we have made these targets legally binding? When the climate Bill went through Parliament, I voted against it and pointed out that the sole effect of enshrining targets in statute would be that the Government’s policies would be open to judicial review. It is bizarre that judges should decide on policies costing billions of pounds without being accountable to the electorate for the costs that will be incurred. That fills with me foreboding, and that foreboding has proved to be justified by this strange ruling. Should we not cease to have legally binding commitments and make these decisions politically by the Government and Parliament of the day?

[Baroness Vere of Norbiton]

I thank my noble friend. The Government stand by their decision to legislate that this country will be net zero by 2050, and what we have been able to achieve in terms of the decarbonisation of our energy system has been very significant. It is now time to turn to transport, and I believe that we can do it.

Brexit: European Union’s No-deal Continuity Arrangements

Debate between Lord Lilley and Baroness Vere of Norbiton

Thursday 13th June 2019 Lords Chamber

[Lord Lilley]

To ask Her Majesty’s Government what announcements the European Union has made regarding continuity arrangements for (1) air travel, (2) haulage, (3) visas, and (4) safety certificates, should the United Kingdom leave the European Union without a deal; and what steps they have taken to give reciprocal assurances.

[The Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Department for Transport (Baroness Vere of Norbiton) (Con)]

My Lords, the EU has adopted time-limited regulations covering the aviation market access and safety certificates, as well as road haulage and international rail. The EU has also announced visa-free travel for UK nationals travelling to the EU for short stays after exit. The Government have given reciprocal assurances in each of these four areas, which will provide certainty to businesses and citizens should the UK leave the EU without a deal.

[Lord Lilley (Con)]

I thank my noble friend for her reply. Since Britain may well leave the EU with no withdrawal agreement, is it not reassuring that these reciprocal mini-deals, and many others, mean that planes will fly, hauliers will operate, Airbus wings will be exported and visa-free travel will continue? Will she also confirm that HMRC plans no extra checks at Dover and will prioritise flow over compliance, while France is so determined not to lose trade to Belgian and Dutch ports that it has installed multiple extra lorry lanes at Calais, located inspection points away from the ports and installed equipment to scan moving trains, so that the likelihood of congestion and delays has vastly diminished, to the obvious disappointment of the Liberal Democrat Benches?

[Baroness Vere of Norbiton]

The noble Lord is right in that the mini-deals make any potential exit from the EU without a deal less difficult. But they are, as I have said, time-limited and there will need to be further negotiations when they expire. With regard to Dover, the Government are working to enable cross-channel traffic and goods to continue to move as freely as possible. Government departments have designed customs and additional control arrangements at the UK border, in a way which ensures that goods will be able to flow into and out of the country, and will not be delayed by additional controls. It is true that on the other side of the channel, the French customs authorities have pulled their finger out and installed additional control points. These mean that delays on this side of the channel will be less; however, they will not disappear completely and we therefore cannot expect trade to continue precisely as it did before.

Business of the House

Debate between Lord Lilley and Baroness Vere of Norbiton

Thursday 4th April 2019 Lords Chamber

[Lord Lilley]

I am sorry but I will not give way.

Let me get to the point. There are three advantages if we leave without a deal. No doubt it would be best to have a free trade agreement—

[Baroness Vere of Norbiton (Con)]

My Lords, I have to agree with the noble Baroness, Lady Hayter. It is the convention that we address the words in the amendment and I am not entirely convinced that the noble Lord is doing that at the moment.

[Lord Lilley]

Let me therefore do so. The amendment,

“notes that more than one day is required for this House to have sufficient time to scrutinise the European Union (Withdrawal) (No. 5) Bill”.

I submit that several days are required and that it is worth taking those days, even if it means leaving on WTO terms—because they are quite acceptable. First, we would keep £39 billion. That was the opinion of this House. I trust the committee which concluded that and I would be quite happy to submit to international arbitration, because I certainly would not want to not meet any legal obligations that we have. So £39 billion is a positive.

Secondly, we would end uncertainty.

Honda in Swindon

Debate between Lord Lilley and Baroness Vere of Norbiton

Tuesday 19th February 2019 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Vere of Norbiton]

I am sure Margaret Thatcher’s analysis was correct in her time. However, it is also the case that Britain remains a very strong place for inward investment. Indeed, I think it was Deloitte that earlier this year analysed 3,600 projects that have generated £140 billion of capital for our country—that has obviously come from all over the world. The UK is still an attractive place for inward investment, and we hope it will continue to be.

[Lord Lilley (Con)]

It is always sad when people lose their jobs, whatever the reasons, but let us get some facts straight, including those studiously ignored by the Opposition Benches. First, Toyota is going ahead with producing the most popular model of car in the world in this country. That is good news ignored by Liberal and Labour Benches. Secondly, Honda is also closing down its factory in Turkey, which is within the customs union, showing that customs unions are not a magic solution to all our problems. Thirdly, it is worth putting on the record that Honda had the lowest value added in this country: 58% of the value of its Civic is imported from Japan, 26% is made in the UK and only 16% of its components are imported from the rest of Europe. Does that not show that you can run a just-in-time production line with the bulk of your components coming through customs procedures, as Honda has been doing?

[Baroness Vere of Norbiton]

My noble friend makes a number of interesting points. Certainly, the plant in Turkey is also being closed by Honda as it focuses its operating facilities in Japan and the US. Sadly, there will also be 1,100 job losses in Turkey. We have to make sure that if customs processes are in place, they are as frictionless as possible. Some interesting facts—I found them interesting anyway—are that the Honda plant has to have 2 million components delivered every single day in 350 lorries and that it has one hour’s worth of components lineside. Noble Lords will therefore agree that making sure that lorries can get in and out of plants and across borders is important.