EU Withdrawal

Lord Lilley Excerpts

Wednesday 13th February 2019 Lords Chamber

[Lord Balfe (Con)]

My Lords, let me again draw attention to my interests in the register and say what a pleasure it is to follow the noble Lord, Lord Kerr. I agree with him that where we are is just not acceptable. Today, I want to deal with a few points on, first, the timetable and, secondly, what I see as the view from Brussels. In UK political scenarios, it seems we spend most of our time speaking to each other; we seldom look outside the country and ask what other people see and what they have to say.

The first thing I would say is that this agreement is not about a dispute between Britain and Ireland; it is about an agreement between us and 27 other member states. Secondly, it is not an agreement that they want us to leave. It has been very clear from the first instant after this decision was made that the European Union would make jolly sure that the terms of our leaving were such that nobody else would ever try it. That is what this agreement is about. Of course, it is not actually an agreement. It is an agreement to seek an agreement. It has nothing really in it. The noble Lord, Lord Kerr, has drawn attention to some of the vacuous statements in the political declaration, statements which led to us being excluded from Galileo and the excellent Minister Sam Gyimah feeling he had to quit the Government because, as he said, we had no voice, no vote, no veto—that is where we are heading.

As far as Europe is concerned, we have a deal. It is up to us whether we accept it. They are not saying that there is a deadline for a deal; they are saying, “If you want to keep talking to us, there might be an amendment at the margin, but there will be no amendment on what you agreed”. Anyway, the only body capable of signing off on a deal is the Council. Messrs Barnier, Juncker, Verhofstadt and Tusk all represent important institutions, but they have no delegated power to sign off any deal. What they would say is, “You already have a deal; it has already been agreed by the Council. It is up to you to decide whether or not you accept it. Yes, we may talk about declarations or side points, but the main deal is not open”. Even if there is a subsequent side agreement, let me remind noble Lords that the Council next meets on 21 March—quite a long time from now. They will say, “There is no point postponing Article 50; nothing will change. All that would change is that you would have a few more weeks to ask for something you are not going to get”. Of course, if there was a real prospect, the Council, acting through the 27 member states, might be able to agree to extend Article 50. But why should it? What is the point? There is no point, as far as Brussels is concerned.

In this Chamber, we always forget that there is a body called the European Parliament. It is quite clear that the Council cannot conclude the agreement without the consent of the European Parliament.

[Lord Lilley (Con)]

I am grateful to the noble Lord for giving way. He seems to accept that the European Parliament has the right to veto this agreement, but the British Parliament does not. Why does he take that view?

[Lord Balfe]

Of course, the European Parliament has that right; it is a co-decision-making body with the Council. It has been represented by Mr Verhofstadt and the agreement will be placed before the European Parliament, which in theory can reject it—as can the British Parliament.

[Lord Lilley]

As it has.

[Lord Balfe]

Yes, and it can carry on rejecting it, in which case we will have no deal. However, the European Parliament is a joint decision-making body and it cannot take a decision until there is an agreement in the Council.

The European Parliament next meets, after the Council, on 25 March. That is a Monday; they will not be there. So the earliest day the European Parliament could agree is the 26th. When you look at the clock, you see that if there is a change, there will be no agreement until the 26th. Then we will be right up against it, but the choice will be fairly clear. Assuming we follow normal conventions and have a Lords debate before the Commons debate, our debate will be on the 26th, and could presumably start as soon as word reaches us from Strasbourg that they have agreed the deal; having a debate would be senseless if they have not. We could have our debate and, on the 27th, the people down the corridor could start theirs. That is the timetable; that is the only one there is if there is an amendment to the deal. I ask the Minister whether he has any other, counter timetable, because that is the realistic timetable.

I say to the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, that there is one point in her Motion which I find difficult, because it is unrealistic. That is the words:

“before the end of February 2019”.

If those words could be removed from the resolution, it would be perfectly acceptable. However, it is perfectly impractical to think that anything could be done before that date in February. That is one point that I would like the noble Baroness to consider regarding whether or not we could get a consensus in this House. There is nothing else in the resolution that most of us—other than those who strongly wish to leave without a deal, or with a very attenuated deal—could disagree with. I put that point forward.

The final point I want to make is this. Of course I deplore Project Fear, which we find constantly; this country will not collapse if we leave the European Union. It will have a difficult time; it will have a pretty torrid time for a pretty short time, but it is still basically a great country that will survive. It is not a country that will go into meltdown, or cease to exist, or where all the lights will go off. It is a country that will survive. However, it will survive as a diminished power in the world. It is a country that will survive outside the one bloc which uses its strengths to make it an important country. We will look back on this in the way that my generation look back on Suez—as a turning point which diminished this country. When we go into these negotiations, if we accept this deal—we will accept something or other—we are, as the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, said, going to have five or 10 years of fruitless negotiation. There will be no MEPs or people in the Council of Ministers to represent our views. We will constantly be the supplicant state, we will not have much power and we will have to take what we are given. That is not a good position for us to be in. I do not write off our country; it will survive and prosper, but it will never be as great as it can be as part of the European family.