(13 years, 6 months ago)
Lords ChamberI agree with the noble Lord, Lord Garel-Jones. I was Private Secretary to the noble and learned Lord, Lord Howe of Aberavon, when he used to chair EMS realignment conferences as Chancellor of the Exchequer when we were not a member of the EMS. The standard form is exactly as the noble Lord, Lord Garel-Jones, lays down. One tries to avoid a market rumour on a Friday—that would be quite difficult if we had held a referendum on the Thursday—ECOFIN would meet on the Saturday, and one would have a decision on the rate very early on Monday morning or late Sunday night as the Japanese markets open. In this case it would be highly desirable to move fast after our referendum because there would be a lot of movement in the market. However, if you have decided that the rate is to be a matter for an Act of Parliament and a referendum, you are stuck with several months of volatile movement.
I wonder if there is a special case in this. Some of us approach this question from the hypothetical case that in a few years we might join the euro when it has parity with the pound. It might be relevant to the referendum that people might think, “If you can’t beat them, join them. It’s been around a long time—you might as well join”. Frankly, that is the way referendum decisions are probably made—in the pub. We are talking about making something quite technical into a demotic sort of fact.
Might the discussion in the press get a debate going? Something like the new clause proposed by the noble Lord, Lord Kerr, might be relevant, maybe with some adjustment, to the idea that we need to have the proposition about parity with the euro as part of the question. Could somebody enlighten me as to how that scenario—it is probable rather than possible; it has some common sense about it—would fit with this Bill and with the amendment?