Iran and Syria

Lord King of Bridgwater Excerpts

Monday 11th November 2013 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

My Lords, I am not familiar with the details of that report. I was aware that a round of talks was taking place. Perhaps I can write to the noble Lord with further details.

[Lord King of Bridgwater (Con)]

My Lords, I apologise to the noble Baroness for not being here at the start of the Statement. I listened to her colleague deliver the same Statement in another place so I am familiar with it.

It seems to me that it is impossible to exaggerate the gravity of the situation faced in that whole region. The chances of Syria surviving as a single country, under the present pressures that it faces and the danger that it may split into three separate countries or separate organisations, seem to be very slim indeed. Against that background, it seems to me to be hugely important that the momentum of this effort to try to find peace through diplomacy is vital. I welcome the announcement about the chargé. The sooner he goes to Iran and establishes a base in Tehran the better.

The other key element in this surely is Russia. In this situation one can see a whole region in danger of collapsing into total confusion. Everyone has an interest in seeing a better outcome. I very much hope that we will press on, notwithstanding the comments, which I strongly support, that there is clear evidence that hardliners in Tehran, the Israeli Government, with their present attitude, and elements in Congress will do everything that they can to obstruct it.

[Baroness Warsi]

I can give my noble friend confidence by saying that the chargé whom we have appointed is someone who has served in Tehran before; in fact he was the deputy ambassador there. Indeed, when I spoke to him this morning, he was brushing up on his Farsi. He knows the country well, is incredibly well equipped and is the right man for the job. Of course, it is an important role and we hope that he will visit the country before the end of the month.

The Russians have been working closely with my right honourable friend the Foreign Secretary, in relation to Syria and Iran as part of the E3+3. They have indeed taken a leading role in relation to the destruction of chemical weapons. It is a strong relationship; it is a relationship which we know we need to continue to work on because their role is crucial to achieving a settlement.

Co-operation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf

Lord King of Bridgwater Excerpts

Thursday 10th October 2013 Grand Committee

[Lord King of Bridgwater (Con)]

My Lords, I join in congratulating my noble friend Lord Luce on showing a proper hereditary interest in this region in which his family’s involvement is well known. I also congratulate him on his timing. Everybody who knows the Gulf Co-operation Council and our many friends within it, with whom we have had the pleasure of working over the years in many different roles, will recognise that this is a critically important time for it. I also congratulate the Government, including the Prime Minister, the Foreign Secretary and the much regretted Alistair Burt. I am sorry to see that he has moved because I think he was extremely energetic in the work that he did but I wish Hugh Robertson well in the new responsibilities that he takes on. The Prime Minister gave a lead when he became Prime Minister in recognising and improving the contacts that had lapsed a little too much with this vital region.

It is impossible to overstate the seriousness of the present situation. One of the leaders, who had better be nameless, of one of the countries involved said that his worry was that there would be a conflagration that would split on sectarian grounds all the way from Beirut to Mumbai. Actually, I think he was wrong because the threat runs from Mali to Mumbai. The situation in Libya, echoed in the news today with the kidnapping of the Prime Minister, and the chaos in Egypt with the suggestion that ex-President Morsi might be executed, show what a tragically difficult situation those countries face. And the situation in Syria looks increasingly awful in terms of the refugee numbers, which are becoming overwhelming. They pose a real threat to Lebanon and to Jordan—not just the question of whether you can feed and nurture and provide health cover for the enormous number of refugees, but the fact that many of the refugees coming over the border into Jordan are taking any jobs they can get at any price and thus causing unemployment in Jordan to rise quite sharply. There are obvious tensions in that area. We have lost the stability of a major regional power in Egypt. Iraq gives us not much cause for confidence at the present time. At the moment, by and large, the GCC countries have managed to maintain their stability but they obviously face very real pressures—both the demographic pressure of the number of young people there and the threat of unemployment. I recall that when the original demonstrations took place in Tahrir Square in Egypt a huge number of people there were demonstrating about unemployment and the lack of jobs. Of course, we know that the chaos and confusion since have made their prospects vastly worse then they were even then. That will be reflected across other countries as their populations and the number of young people have increased. They face major challenges.

There are those demographic challenges, and then the challenges of what we might call social networking. Now, for the first time, whether it is Facebook, Twitter or the internet, a whole lot of people who previously were completely isolated from any adequate method of communication suddenly have these new channels of communication which are described in a very good brief from the Lords Library as “irreversible” and are a major challenge.

It is against that background that this country has an important role. There is no question that the relationship of some of these countries in the Gulf with the United States has changed. I do not know whether one is reading too much into the refusal of Saudi Arabia to make a speech at the United Nations or whether it is a sign of great displeasure with the United States’ failure to, as Saudi Arabia sees it, support it both in Egypt and in Syria. That is a new development. Of course, if it is true that the effect of shale gas and oil discoveries will be that the United States is exporting more oil than Saudi Arabia by 2020, and given the fact that China has now become the major customer for Saudi Arabia, there will undoubtedly be some change of commercial interest. It is against that background that our position and long-standing relationships give us a particularly important role to play. We must support serious reform, as my noble friend has said, but we must try to ensure that it comes without the catastrophic collapse that has imposed such great hardship on the people of the countries affected.

It is against that background that we must make progress through diplomatic means. I welcome the peace conference in Geneva on the Syrian issues, and hope that it will be successful. How much better than bombing Syria to see people sitting down to a peace conference; I hope that that can make progress. I am delighted that, in the next debate, my noble friend will renew the pressure on United States Secretary of State John Kerry to launch now the initiatives to get real progress on Israel and Palestine. I also welcome very much the new initiative of my right honourable friend the Foreign Secretary, William Hague, for his proposal to establish a relationship with Iran.

I know that our friends in the Gulf will have the greatest concerns about that initiative. They may fear that we are somehow going to betray them or let them down. Of course, one must be aware of the challenges and dangers. We must do this with our eyes open and not necessarily believe everything that Iranian leaders may say at this time. However, we must make the effort, and I warmly congratulate the Government on taking that initiative. I hope that that is one of the items that might add to future stability. Any countries with continuing governance all have a continuing interest in greater stability in that region. We should try to bring them all to the table and work as closely as we can with them all.

Syria

Lord King of Bridgwater Excerpts

Thursday 27th June 2013 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

The noble Baroness raises important questions, and we can see from the way the House is responding that these are questions that other noble Lords want answering too. I have a huge amount of respect for the noble Baroness, but it would be wrong of me to start hypothesising about a decision that has not yet been taken. I can assure her that a decision has not been taken at this stage to supply arms to the Syrian opposition. I hope that she and the House can take great comfort from the fact that when we have, for example, supplied non-lethal assistance to the opposition, we have been incredibly cautious about ensuring that even that equipment, whether in the form of humanitarian support or indeed armoured vehicles, does not get into the hands of extremists.

[Lord King of Bridgwater]

Would my noble friend agree that many in this House welcome the fact that no decision has been taken to send arms to Syria or to aid the insurgents? Many of us hope that it never would be taken. The most urgent and important challenge now is to get Russia and China, together with Iran, on board in a wide-ranging conference, so that proper attention can be given, and quickly, before this terrible Sunni-Shia split spreads right across that region with serious consequences. At the same time, the other most urgent thing is help for Jordan, which faces the most appalling refugee problem at the present time.

[Baroness Warsi]

I am acutely aware of the issues that my noble friend raises. I think he will accept that it is important that we continue to respond to the situation on the ground, and that we can see that the Government have responded at various stages as the situation on the ground has changed. However, 93,000 people have now died and over half the population has been displaced. There are no no-risk options and no perfect solutions. For that reason, we must continue to monitor the situation on the ground and to respond to it.

Nuclear Disarmament

Lord King of Bridgwater Excerpts

Thursday 24th January 2013 Lords Chamber

[Lord King of Bridgwater]

My Lords, I congratulate the noble Lord, Lord Ramsbotham, on bringing this debate to the House today and the way in which he introduced it, not least because he gave us the opportunity to hear the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Bramall, as well—I am appalled if it is to be the last time; I certainly hope it is not—in what I think impressed the whole House as a deeply felt and most impressive contribution to the debate.

Having said that, and while some have some background in this area, I hope that my noble friend Lady Miller will not feel the least bit inhibited. She is absolutely right that a lot more Members should take part in this very important debate. As the noble Lord, Lord Ramsbotham, said, the whole issue should be examined more deeply.

By virtue of the office I once held, I was faced with what seemed at the time to be a pretty unrealistic situation, as I was shown a target map of the Soviet cities that were to be taken out in total annihilation. It never seemed very credible at the time. We are discussing something that there has been no occasion to use in the past 65 years, since it was invented. As my noble friend Lady Williams said, one should not underestimate the significance of the end of the Cold War.

I remember a meeting in No. 10 when John Major was Prime Minister, when President Yeltsin came over and we talked about how we could help the Russians recover their nuclear weapons that were scattered around different parts of the Soviet Union, which they did not have any adequate way of recovering. We made various secure containers available to help them in that.

At the same time I received some very interesting advice in my brief about the work that was being done to enable nuclear material suitable for warheads to be turned into fuel for nuclear power stations. I am delighted to see, in the excellent brief that was referred to by the noble Lord, Lord Ramsbotham, the very real US-Russian co-operation that is going on. The US is spending $1 billion on helping the Russians to combat the spread of nuclear materials from the former Soviet Union. In their joint Megatons to Megawatts programme, they are turning highly enriched uranium into lightly enriched uranium for use in power stations. They have already converted nearly 20,000 warheads’ worth of nuclear material into fuel, making it unavailable for use in warheads. I understand that there is a bit of a freeze and some tension in the US-Russian relationship at the moment, and in the interests of the whole world I hope that that is not too long-lasting.

It is against that background that one looks at the future as vividly described by the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Bramall. It is of course an extraordinarily dangerous world, and we can only be reminded of that by the upheavals that have happened, all so rapidly, barely in the past couple of years. The whole of the Middle East has gone into spasm: Libya; the appalling carnage in Syria at present; the issue of whether Iran is developing a nuclear weapon; Israel, with the CIA assessment that it has 300 to 400 warheads, and the question, after its election, of whether it may or may not decide to make any use of them; and obviously the situation in Yemen, Somalia and, now, Mali. The issues that we face include terrorism, Islamic fundamentalism, piracy and cyber threats. However, against none of those do nuclear weapons look like God’s gift to solving the problem. It is against that background that I look on the present situation. It is certainly not obvious to me that there is any longer a need for a major nuclear system based on 24-hours-a-day, seven-days-a-week availability. None the less, it is an unstable world and my judgment is that we would be wise not to abandon totally some nuclear capability, not least because one looks at Iran, North Korea and the development by Russia, and I think by Pakistan as well, of non-strategic nuclear weapons, which is obviously a very dangerous development.

As the noble and gallant Lord, Lord Bramall, said, the blockage to this has really been the political judgment. Can any political party in this country go to the electors and say, “We have dismantled the basic, fundamental, ultimate defence of our country”? That is the challenge that we face and that has to be addressed. As to whether it ultimately gives us top-table credibility, in the current world we live in, top-table credibility comes from being available to help with peacekeeping and conflict resolution, and in having Armed Forces that are able to exist, co-ordinate and co-operate with the new high-technology and highly sophisticated systems. We know that, in any co-operation with the United States, there are very few countries now that can do that.

Against that background, the cash pressures are very much an issue here. I think that our place at the top table would be more threatened by committing ourselves to a system for 40 years or more that may mean, in what are likely to be pretty stringent economic times for the foreseeable future, that we are less able to contribute in the United Nations and under United Nations leadership in some of those other roles than by whether we can say that we have these very substantial weapons, which we have never had occasion to use. Our position and the need to play our part in the world means we must now review this very carefully as it comes forward—I am glad it is Danny Alexander and not Douglas Alexander who is leading this particular exercise—to see whether we can find an alternative way forward that preserves our defences adequately but not at quite such an appalling expense.

Syria: Chemical Weapons

Lord King of Bridgwater Excerpts

Tuesday 4th December 2012 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

We know that Russia shares our concerns about the use of chemical and biological weapons. We use all opportunities that we have in discussions with our Russian counterparts and, indeed, this matter was again raised in discussions that I had with the Russian ambassador only a few weeks ago. As for our concerns about where Russia has failed to act, specifically at the United Nations Security Council, the views of my right honourable friend the Prime Minister were very clear when he spoke at the United Nations.

[Lord King of Bridgwater]

My Lords, the Minister will recognise that if Patriot missiles are to be deployed, it must be solely for the purpose of ensuring the protection of Turkish citizens and the military situation in Turkey, and as the noble Lord, Lord Wright, has said, it must in no way become the thin end of the wedge, with our becoming militarily involved in that area. Does my noble friend welcome the fact that, as I understand it, President Putin is currently with Prime Minister Erdogan in order to discuss their relationship, and so that President Erdogan can give him a better understanding of Turkey’s position? We will see what Turkey can do to persuade the Russians of the importance of recognising the seriousness of the situation in Syria. It would be very welcome if Russia could be discouraged from giving too much support to the present regime.

[Baroness Warsi]

I agree with much of what the noble Lord has said; he comes to this issue with great expertise. Turkey is an important ally, and in relation to the humanitarian effort and support for the refugees it has been on the front line of this conflict.

Palestine: United Nations General Assembly Resolution

Lord King of Bridgwater Excerpts

Monday 3rd December 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord King of Bridgwater]

My Lords, I have not previously been involved in the debates on Israel and Palestine and the issues arising from them. I am extremely grateful to the noble Baroness for introducing this debate, because I wanted to express simply, as somebody who is much more of an observer than many of the experts who have spoken already, the great concern that I have about the situation.

I am progressively more alarmed about this region, which has already been referred to being in turmoil at the present time. This situation does not threaten merely continuing bitterness and violence between Israel and the Palestinians but threatens the region, and may threaten ourselves, in terms of world peace and stability, the possible involvement of the United States, and the consequences of events in Iran. A number of developments here pose the greatest danger to us. I have always supported the State of Israel and its existence. However, the current actions of the Israeli Government imperil the State of Israel itself. Voices of concern and friendship have a duty to speak out at this time.

The New Statesman had a headline this week, that Mr Netanyahu risked condemning Israel to perpetual war. The awful thought, in such a dangerous world, of the risk of continuing and escalating conflict of this kind, must concern us all. This is a time when Israel needs support. The noble Baroness referred to the vote in the United Nations, which was 138 to nine. Of the nine, as the noble Lord, Lord Alderdice, quoted, I had to look up who two of them were. One of them was Palau, which has a population of 20,000; another was Nauru, which has a population of 10,000; and the Marshall Islands came swinging in with a majority vote of 68,000. That is three votes in the United Nations with a smaller vote than the Isle of Wight in a constituency election. France, Italy and Spain came out against Israel, supporting the adoption of observer status for the Palestinians, while Germany, Holland, Australia and the United Kingdom abstained. I must say to my noble friend that I was disappointed that we abstained. I understand why the Foreign Secretary made that decision, but the Israeli reaction since has been a real slap in the face for him and others who had hoped for a more moderate response.

I say to the many noble Lords who express strong support for the State of Israel: does anyone in Israel still care about what the rest of the world actually thinks? It is deeply depressing at the present time. We have seen Mr Netanyahu going to America, snubbing the American President and marching straight off into a meeting of AIPAC, where he got a heroic reception, as he would. Against that background, it is deeply worrying. The Israelis are losing the support of countries that would have supported them strongly in the past. I had these thoughts even before the announcement of the disastrous reaction to the vote in the United Nations. Although the noble Lord, Lord Palmer, rather glossed over the decision to go ahead with preparations for E1 and the impact these have had on East Jerusalem, along with tax withholding and going ahead with more settlements, I certainly understood why Ban Ki-Moon said that it would be an “almost fatal blow” to hopes of peace. I am not sure that the present Israeli leadership under Mr Netanyahu actually has any intention of ever going forward with a two-state solution. I am afraid that that is the impression he gives outside the country. Everyone goes along with it, saying “That’s our policy”, but I am not sure whether he is ever going to move on it.

I much appreciated the speech of my noble friend Lord Alderdice. He and I know very well the old cry, “Not an inch and no surrender”, which I had shouted at me often enough in Northern Ireland, along with people trying to hit me over the head, but we knew that it was not the way out of the problem. Progress had to be made on both sides and, as the noble Lord, Lord Judd, said, it had to involve the people on both sides. They have to understand their best interests. No sensible Israeli wants to be in a state of perpetual war. The Israelis cannot want to be in that continuing situation, and no Palestinians want to find themselves in the present miserable situation.

Against that background, the scale of change that is taking place in the world and in that region cannot be overstated. I have seen, and no doubt so has Israel, the visits that are now being paid to Gaza. The Prime Minister of Egypt has been to Gaza, as has a senior representative or perhaps the Emir of Qatar. Senior representatives from Bahrain have been there, and now I see that Mr Erdogan of Turkey is talking about going as well. These developments are profoundly significant. Whether these decisions and the reactions to them are to help the election campaign of Mr Netanyahu in January—we are promised the election of an even more hawkish coalition—is not known, but one does weep very seriously, not least because we still have the elephant in the room in the shape of Iran and its nuclear weapons. One wonders what kind of approach a more hawkish coalition might take to that.

I will just add this. I used to visit America on behalf of Northern Ireland, and I found that many of the expat Irish—the Irish lobby—were much more inclined to scream “No surrender” or “A united Ireland at all costs”, and then I would talk to the Irish-American politicians like Ted Kennedy, Daniel Moynihan or Tip O’Neill, and they were the sensible ones. Charlie Haughey used to be picketed when he went over because the Irish lobby there thought he had sold out on Irish independence. The British ambassador to the United States would say to me, “The green lobby, the united Ireland lobby, is jolly strong over here, but it is not a patch on the Jewish lobby”. The truth is that the Jewish lobby in the United States has done no service to Israel and it has done no service to the standing of the United States in the region. Let us think back to when President Clinton could stand between Mr Rabin and Mr Arafat. He was seen as an impartial assister towards peace. America is now seen to be one-sided, voting against the Palestinian resolution and no longer commanding confidence. A nation of the power and scale of the United States could easily be a tremendous force for good in the region.

I believe that we are in a serious and rapidly developing situation, one that makes the world more dangerous. For all who care about the future of Israel and its continuing existence, and not least providing a civilised life for all those in the region, it is desperately important that they realise that a change of course must be undertaken. They must get rid of all the conditions, sit down and try to find a genuine approach towards a two-state solution, or I fear for where the future may go.

Syria

Lord King of Bridgwater Excerpts

Thursday 8th November 2012 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Warsi]

My right honourable friend the Prime Minister visited a refugee camp on the border between Jordan and Syria yesterday. He made some important points—first, in relation to a potential exit for Assad, that this country would not offer him asylum but we would not stand in the way of any other country offering him asylum, which could bring the violence to an end. Secondly, we said that we would engage more with the opposition, including the armed opposition, with a view to taking forward some political agreement. Thirdly, we committed additional funds of £14 million to the humanitarian relief efforts, which brings the UK total to just over £53 million.

[Lord King of Bridgwater]

Will my noble friend the Minister listen very carefully to what the noble Lord, Lord Wright, has said? If there are pressures in the United Nations at present to say that there is some obligation on members to get involved and intervene in some military capacity, I hope very strongly that, while we share the Prime Minister’s deep concern about the humanitarian situation and the desire to help in that way, we will not become involved in any military intervention.

[Baroness Warsi]

We have real concerns about the ongoing violence and killing within Syria, but we are clear that the United Nations Security Council is the best format in which to take these matters forward. We have had discussion with the Russians and Chinese to try to achieve some consensus, and I think that the views of my right honourable friend the Prime Minister are very clear. When he spoke at the United Nations General Assembly at the end of September, he was very forthcoming about his concerns about the bloodshed in Syria, but we will act with international agreement.

Arms Trade Treaty Negotiations

Lord King of Bridgwater Excerpts

Tuesday 24th July 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

I understand the noble Lord’s strong feelings. He has always been a robust fighter in this very important cause. However, we are at this very delicate and sensitive stage in the negotiations, when we are fighting to achieve a robust treaty and avoid what we would totally reject, which is having to sign a weak consensus. I am not sure that in the middle of the negotiations it would be better to discuss them. The noble Lord, with his experience, will possibly understand that. Although I fully applaud his feelings on this matter, we are at an absolutely crucial stage of mid-negotiation. This is something that has been fought for by officials under successive Governments for over six years. We are poised to achieve the very most that we can, as I outlined in my Answer.

[Lord King of Bridgwater]

Does the Minister agree that this will very soon represent the culmination of eight years’ work by determined Ministers and officials of both the previous and the present Governments and that we wish them well in these final, concluding days? I have to say that it is very bizarre to have a Private Notice Question that asks for the Government’s negotiating position two days before the final vote, after eight years’ work. Nobody denies the enormous importance of this treaty—for all the reasons that the noble Lord, Lord Judd, has given—so that responsible defence industries can operate in the proper, licensed way and so that the illegal shipment of arms which has caused such difficulty can be properly controlled under an international agreement. In these crucial last two days, is not the best thing for us to wish our negotiators the best possible success in this important undertaking?

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

My noble friend is absolutely right. I fully endorse everything he says. I believe your Lordships are at heart, and certainly have been in past statements, fully in support of these very difficult negotiations and this high ambition of the British Government and that we should today take the opportunity further to reinforce the support for what officials have struggled to achieve over the years under successive Governments.

Government of France: Meetings

Lord King of Bridgwater Excerpts

Tuesday 12th June 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

I totally accept those extremely wise rebukes from the noble Lord about my French pronunciation. It has never been very good; I will practise a lot more to see whether I can improve it.

[Lord King of Bridgwater]

Does my noble friend accept that the Question goes generally to our relations with France, and in this connection to the very important issue of defence co-operation with France? I hope that we can see the continuation of the co-operation envisaged under the previous President.

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

Yes, that is certainly the intention. Those matters have been discussed both between the Prime Minister and Monsieur Hollande and between my right honourable friend the Foreign Secretary and Laurent Fabius, the new French Foreign Secretary. Obviously a question was raised by our decision to go for the JSF variant rather than the original pattern under the strategic defence review. That has been discussed. Any suggestion of misunderstanding has been removed and both sides fully intend to co-operate very closely in the future on all defence matters.

NATO

Lord King of Bridgwater Excerpts

Tuesday 29th May 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord King of Bridgwater]

My Lords, I am particularly pleased to have the opportunity to follow the noble Lord, Lord Browne, and to start by paying tribute to the leadership he has shown in the creation of what I think is a remarkable group of people, excluding my own membership. One can look across Europe at the number of people who have come together, echoing the leadership given by Henry Kissinger, Sam Nunn and George Schultz in the United States, to consider this issue. I hope and believe that it is a group that increasingly should be listened to.

The difficulty with nuclear weapons is now clear. When one considers the frequent changes of ministerial office, it is an almost impossible issue for a new Secretary of State to deal with, so it is important to draw in those with a background in and experience of these issues. The noble Lord, Lord Browne, referred to Cold War attitudes and the risk of those perhaps reappearing, with some concern about President Putin’s current approach in certain areas. I was Secretary of State at the time when the Warsaw Pact collapsed, the Soviet Union collapsed, the Berlin Wall came down and Germany was reunified. I do not think I could have believed at the time that since then, in a very real way, we have hardly moved on in the nuclear situation. The threat against which we perceived the need to maintain an effective deterrent was the Warsaw Pact and the threats coming out at the time, such as that the Soviet Union would bury us. All that belonged very much to the Cold War period. Surely the situation is now different and it needs to be addressed.

I certainly echo the words of the noble Lord, Lord Browne, when he said the DDPR report and the Chicago summit did not live up to expectations, but sadly I think it is what we expected would happen. It is disappointing that this has not been taken further forward. The noble Lord, Lord Browne, was too modest to say it, but the letter for which he corralled so many signatures should be compulsory reading for all noble Lords. If anyone has come to this debate not having done so, they ought to be ashamed of themselves. I say that in passing because I hope it reflects quite a broad spectrum. Yes, there is a desire to move to a world free of nuclear weapons, but there are different attitudes within the group about the speed at which it can be done and how realistic it is. But there is certainly a major opportunity for a significant step forward.

When one looks at the situation and the current threats, and the need to assess what our capabilities in defence for the security of our nation should be, one cannot leave out the question of money. Surely that is the great change in the world recently. Suddenly a lot of countries, including our own, are very much poorer than they used to be, and the ability, opportunity and options for spending money need to be much more carefully considered.

I was reading the CND pamphlet that came out quite recently—I do not know if the figures are right, and I do not expect that my noble friend the Minister will necessarily want to comment on this—which claims that if Trident goes forward, with the possible future development of a new missile and new warheads, the figure over the lifetime of that is possibly £100 billion. When one looks at the expenditure options one has against the threats one faces—the economic situation in the western world and in Europe, as was suggested with slightly dramatic force by the Home Secretary only a week ago, a possible collapse of national economies, perhaps with people coming out of the euro, and the risk of extreme poverty, extreme hardship and mass migration—nuclear weapons have got nothing to do with how one might seek to tackle those sorts of challenges.

I am not advocating in any way abolishing our deterrent but I believe that there has always been—and is still—a case for a greater, progressive reduction. I recognise the changes that have been made, the reduction in the numbers of missiles and warheads. But we ought to go further. The United States and Russia certainly ought to go further. Starting from our position in Europe, the key to this has to be an enhanced effort with Russia, as the noble Lord, Lord Browne, said. Russia cannot afford it either. Given the state of its economy, Russia is spending a ludicrous amount of money on its own strategic and tactical deterrents.

Whatever the difficulties with President Putin, he is undoubtedly a strong president, having now achieved his ambition of reattaining the presidency. I am delighted that the Foreign Secretary was in Moscow so recently. I hope that there will be really determined effort to build much more confidence and trust between ourselves and Russia, which is in our mutual interest and could be the most important single step forward to seeing an improvement in this area. We might then be able to manage a deterrent—moving step by step, but those are steps that definitely need to be made.

We were disappointed that more was not done in Chicago. I hope that we can return to the subject and keep it firmly on the agenda.