Queen’s Speech

Lord King of Bridgwater Excerpts

Thursday 17th May 2012 Lords Chamber

[Lord King of Bridgwater]

My Lords, this debate is taking place at a very appropriate time in advance of the NATO summit this weekend, which will discuss NATO forces 2020. That is clearly an extremely important moment; Mr Rasmussen, the secretary-general, in the Times this morning says that it is dealing with,

“increasing security challenges but decreasing defence budgets”.

My noble friend the Minister said that the Government looked on the world situation with some optimism. I do not want to ruin everybody’s morning, but I hope that in the wind-up my noble friend may help to destroy some of my sense of gloom about some of the things going on. I took the opportunity to look at the first Queen’s Speech debate that we had in this Parliament. Given some of the events that have taken place since then, sadly there is no question that the world is a significantly less stable place and in many ways a more worrying place. We have of course the economic crisis, which suffuses everything and affects every country in the world in one way or another. And we have, undoubtedly at the moment, a significant number of countries that, if not actually failed states, certainly lack a secure and established Government. Greece has to have a temporary Government to hold the fort, and a number of other Governments are finding that they are rapidly defeated at the ballot box when they try to bring in measures that they consider necessary to restore the situation.

The Arab spring has certainly not become an Arab summer. One looks at the situation in Egypt and at the increasingly worrying situation in Syria today, with the reports that America is now intervening, with Saudi Arabia and Qatar, providing more weapons to intensify the conflict there. It looks as though Kofi Annan’s initiative is of pretty dubious benefit at present. There is the suggestion that the conflict is spreading across into Lebanon as well, and there are continuing difficulties in Iraq—and then of course there are the problems in Libya and the uncertainties in Sudan and South Sudan as well. One of the least attractive parts of the Libyan legacy was the departure of a huge number of mercenaries—I think some 10,000s—who went with their weapons on the run, having been recruited from Niger, Chad, Mali and other territories and are now on the loose in those areas, making them extremely unstable and dangerous.

Then there is the Sahel. A distinguished United Nations spokesman talked of the prospect of famine there, saying that we may see a famine like the world has never seen, with possibly 13 million people affected. I listened with interest to the noble Lord, Lord Cameron, who talked about an abundance of water in Africa. In thinking about what I might say today, I came across one staggering fact. Lake Chad used to be 25,000 square kilometres and is now after barely 20 years 1,500 square kilometres, with all the implications of that for agriculture in the future. Into that dangerous area, al-Qaeda has moved. We have talked about that organisation moving around, and the dangers of associated bodies in northern Nigeria and the problems they are causing there. Then we have AQIM—as my noble friend referred to it—which is al-Qaeda in the Maghreb. These are very dangerous situations.

On top of this, we add the issues of population explosion. We have gone effortlessly from 6 billion to 7 billion and are heading for 9 billion in the world by 2050. We are also facing the issues of climate change. That throws into the equation the issues of food security and energy security as elements of tension threatening the world. Undoubtedly that means more unemployment, and we are seeing serious levels of youth unemployment in the world.

This debate covers a range of topics but in the brief time that I have I want to concentrate on just two. My first obsession is the situation in Israel. The situation in Israel has changed since we had the previous Queen’s Speech. It has lost the only two friendly neighbours that it might have had in the shape of Egypt and Turkey, which makes it much more isolated. I despaired of what I thought was the totally negative attitude of Mr Netanyahu and his previous coalition Government, egged on by AIPAC in the United States, which makes even Netanyahu look like a moderate at times. Given that situation, I wondered whether change could occur. However, developments have occurred such as the apparent agreement over the hunger strikers, the apparent willingness to enter into peace talks and the extraordinary move on the part of Mr Mofaz and the Kadima Party in forming a giant coalition. I wondered what it meant, particularly in relation to Iran. My other deep concern, which I am glad to see is echoed by a number of significant voices in Israel, is that an attack on Iran would be disastrous, given the unstable and chaotic nature of this area of the world. I know that Her Majesty’s Government are doing all they can to convey that message as clearly as possible. I think that President Obama is trying to make efforts in that direction as well. I think that the noble Lord, Lord Gilbert, has said in this House that there are worse things than Iran getting a nuclear weapon. The chaos, confusion and proliferation that could follow an unsuccessful attack on Iran are certainly some of them.

The other issue that I want to address is Afghanistan. I listened with great interest to the speech of the right reverend Prelate, who set out his objectives: namely, the stabilisation of the Government and the avoidance of civil war and sectarian strife. One could have all sorts of ambitions, such as Afghanistan becoming a better, more civilised, place that was more aligned with objectives and ideals that we could share. However, I noted that the Statement which was made on the Kabul conference in July 2010, just after the previous Queen’s Speech, said that it had been rather a bad month. That speech was made virtually two years ago but the current month is also pretty bad.

There is no question but that I am unstinting in my praise for the courage of our forces and what they have done. I am wearing the tie with the Light Infantry Bugle. The unit used to be called the Somerset Light Infantry, then became the Light Infantry and is now The Rifles. I think that The Rifles have suffered as many casualties as almost any other unit in Afghanistan and have shown great bravery. However, the truth is that the objective for which we entered Afghanistan has been achieved. That objective was to make sure that it was no longer a place in which terrorist groups could be trained and recruited and in which they could plan their attacks on the United States and the western world. However, I am told that not a single al-Qaeda person has ever been found in Helmand. The idea that we are still fighting al-Qaeda in Afghanistan is not true, and we have become caught up in other issues that are outside the original objective. Therefore, I say to the Government that given the threats we face from the Yemen, the issues arising in the Sahel and the southern Sahara, to which I have referred, and the risk of al-Qaeda emerging in other areas, we must be flexible in our response. I know what the Government’s plans are for withdrawal from Afghanistan and it is vital that we stick to them. And in that withdrawal, it would be absolutely intolerable if Pakistan did not agree to suitable arrangements for extricating all the equipment.

We face a dangerous time in the world. We need to face it with our NATO allies, all of whom face severe economic and financial challenges. That is why we must be flexible and mobile and, given that our defence capabilities are limited, we must achieve as many objectives as we can by means of soft power, as my noble friend said in his opening remarks, and as William Hague said yesterday. We must make sure that our defence capabilities are available to be used in different areas and that we do not get bogged down—we are coming up to our twelfth year in Afghanistan—so that when other threats emerge we can play our part in tackling them.