Policy for Growth

Debate between Lord Johnson of Marylebone and Virendra Sharma

Thursday 11th November 2010 Commons Chamber

[Mr Sharma]

Let me make some progress and the hon. Gentleman can try again.

Secondly, having been caused by international factors, the current economic uncertainty and any prospects of growth are still going to be greatly determined by what happens in the international economic arena. Let me begin, then, with the international dimension.

Only yesterday, the Governor of the Bank of England warned:

“The outlook for growth is highly uncertain”,

explaining:

“The contribution of net trade to growth has so far been weaker than the Bank of England Monetary Committee had expected, and it is unclear how persistent that weakness will prove to be.”

In other words, Britain’s exports and trade with the world are not boosting our hopes for economic growth, despite a 25% reduction in sterling over the last three years.

[Joseph Johnson (Orpington) (Con)]

On a point of fact, the Governor of the Bank of England did not say that the growth outlook was tremendously uncertain, but that the inflation outlook was very uncertain. He said that, in his estimation, the UK’s economic recovery was likely to continue.

[Mr Sharma]

I have the facts here and we must agree to differ on their interpretation.

The Governor of the Bank of England added that unless the G20 nations at the current summit in South Korea work together on trade and tackle imbalances between creditor and debtor nations, the world economy is likely to be damaged. He said:

“What is most important at present, given the difficult and dangerous times that the world economy faces, is that the world leaders at the G20 have a constructive approach… We are in a position where the world economy can be a win-win outcome, but I’m afraid we’re also in a position where it can be a lose-lose.”

These are indeed difficult and dangerous times for the world economy and for UK growth prospects. Britain is particularly vulnerable to economic shocks in the eurozone. UK banks are exposed, with many loans to Ireland, Greece and Spain. Rumours of an EU bail-out of Ireland were rife in the financial markets only this week.

Equally, in the wider international economy, China, Brazil and India have all seen economic growth reducing. This all means more uncertainty as Britain tries to rebalance its economy away from being reliant on financial services and consumer spending on domestic service industries and more towards export-driven sales of our manufactured goods. My right hon. Friend the shadow Chancellor is right to say that the previous Government became over-reliant on tax receipts from the financial services sector, so it is right that, as we go forward, we try to build our manufacturing base back up and sell more of our goods in the world market, but it will not be easy.

I shall now deal with the domestic economy and growth—or, given the Chancellor’s reckless plans as laid out in the spending review, perhaps I should say the lack of prospects for such growth. The growth figures of 1.2% and 0.8% for the last two quarters have indeed been welcome news, but have nothing to do with the Government’s decisions since coming into office. The truth is, in fact, quite the opposite. Those two growth figures show the positive effects of the previous Government’s fiscal stimulus. When carefully analysed, the figures also show that much of the growth was due to a temporary and seasonal upturn in the construction industry.

If Members care to look at the predictions for the UK construction industry going forward into 2011, they will find talk of recession. This is not surprising, given the Government’s decisions in the emergency Budget and the spending review. If the housing capital budget is slashed by more than 50%, it does not take an economic genius to work out that the construction industry is going to take a hit. Equally, the cancellation of the Building Schools for the Future scheme, and the 60% reduction in the capital budget for schools, will also have a severe recessionary impact on the construction industry.

Let me illustrate that point with examples from my constituency and local borough. Ealing was due to have 18 schools either completely rebuilt or significantly rebuilt or refurbished. Some £305 million was to have been spent on those projects, representing a substantial boost to the local and regional economy, in addition to meeting the need for extra school building due to a rising demand for school places in the borough. Those plans were brutally cut in the emergency Budget, and in the end we managed to rescue projects for two sample schools, one of which is Dormers Wells high school in my constituency. However, we still face the withdrawal of almost £250 million of public money—