(5 years, 2 months ago)
Lords ChamberI do not want to continue with this, but if the noble Lord—for whom I have great respect as well—cares to read the alternative arrangements report, he will see that the detailed analyses of what goes on at various borders are examined by experts. The evidence is there. There are pages of it. He will see exactly which bits could apply to the border in Northern Ireland and which do not.
I have read that report and none of the proposals is credible, which is the reason Her Majesty’s Government have not published those proposals as their own.
I simply repeat: the alternative arrangements documents are there and go into considerable detail. They can be dismissed or agreed to, depending on your state of mind, but they are a way out. I now want to say something on a different area. Are there any other interruptions before we leave this? There is one more.
(5 years, 7 months ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, it is a privilege to follow the noble Lord, Lord Anderson. He is absolutely right to highlight the issue about the procedure following a counterproposal. My understanding is that discussions that include the Government are under way on this. Perhaps the Minister might be able to indicate to us at the end of the debate whether the Government themselves will be tabling an amendment on Monday. The Minister is shaking his head and saying they will not, so I think the House will take careful note of that in terms of where it might go next.
In his brilliant speech introducing the Bill, my noble friend Lord Rooker said that the Prime Minister had the reputation of being the most law-abiding person in the country who, even when she was late for an engagement, travelled at precisely 29 miles per hour in her official car. As a former Secretary of State for Transport, I am delighted that she observes the speed limit in that way. However, the big problem that we in this country face at the moment is that she is accelerating the country at about 100 miles per hour towards the cliff edge. We are seeking to decelerate the car very rapidly to see that we do not go off the edge of a cliff but stop, take stock as a country and do something far more sane and sensible than that.
If we had complete trust, there would not be a need for the Bill, but I am afraid a pattern of behaviour has grown up over the past year. There was the first meaningful vote, which became meaningless when the Prime Minister lost it, and then the second meaningful vote, which then became meaningless. There was the clock that was not supposed to be run down but is now practically at zero. That pattern of behaviour has led Parliament and responsible parliamentarians to believe quite rightly that without a legal backstop, which is effectively what we are legislating for, there is a real danger that things could go seriously wrong next week.
The noble Lord, Lord Anderson, is right to say that the procedure in the Bill does not make it absolutely impossible for no deal to take place but makes it much less likely because it imposes a process of parliamentary accountability and debate, both beforehand and afterwards, which makes it extremely unlikely that no deal would happen. The reason it makes it extremely unlikely is that the considered and firmly declared will of Parliament is that we should not have no deal. That has repeatedly been the vote of the House of Commons, by 400 to 200 votes when a view on that specific proposal was last expressed. The majority of one on this Bill is very misleading, because it is due to concerns about whether it is correct to limit the royal prerogative in the way that is being done at the moment. I take careful note of the remarks of the noble Lord, Lord Norton, on that.
It is very important to address the underlying issue, which is the crisis facing the country: does Parliament want no deal? The House of Commons could not have been more emphatic on that. It does not want no deal. However, because it does not have sufficient trust in the Prime Minister to ensure that no deal is removed from the equation, we have this legislation.
The noble Lord, Lord Forsyth, in unjustly derogatory remarks about Sir Oliver Letwin earlier, missed the point that Sir Oliver has been performing a very valuable public service. He has effectively made himself the leader of a massive parliamentary majority encompassing all sides of the House of Commons and the overwhelming majority of Members of your Lordships’ House, who do not want to see the country trashed next week by an inadvertent move towards no deal. Introducing his Bill yesterday, at the beginning of the debate in the House of Commons, Sir Oliver said,
“there should be a transparent and orderly statutory process or framework within which the House has an opportunity to consider the length of the extension that is asked for and to provide the Prime Minister with backing for her request to the EU in an unequivocal and transparent way”.—[Official Report, Commons, 3/4/19; col. 1060.]
That is a laudable and very necessary objective for Parliament to secure, which is why we are attending to these matters so late on a Thursday evening and will not rest until we have enacted the Bill.
The big question which then faces us as a country is: what do we do once we have this long extension? We are in the middle of a very deep political and constitutional crisis, because of our inability to light on a policy which is sustainable for the nation. The noble Lord, Lord Howard, who is no longer in his place, gave a very simplistic answer to the question. I am afraid that, to my mind, that simplicity is born of a fundamentalism I find extremely unattractive. He said the House of Commons voted three years ago to delegate the decision on what we will do as a country to the people. This goes to the fundamental issue facing Parliament and the country at the moment. Three years ago, all that the country was asked to vote on—the only option people were given—was four words: leave the European Union. That was the option on the ballot paper. There was no detail.
As has now become clear, the people behind the leave campaign all had inconsistent and often contradictory objectives about what they wanted. Some said we would stay in the customs union and keep freedom of movement; some said we would not. As the negotiations have proceeded—I give the Prime Minister credit for doing her best in the negotiations—it has become clear that we cannot achieve the objectives set out three years ago. Not only that, but the Prime Minister’s own objectives, set out in her Lancaster House speech of January 2017, cannot be achieved either.
When faced with a situation in which promises made cannot be kept, the country faces a very deep crisis and circumstances have changed radically, what do you do? Do you continue to accelerate at 100 miles an hour towards the edge of a cliff? Or do you decelerate, stop, take stock, be reasonable and—this is highly appropriate—give the country the opportunity to make a judgment on whether it wants to proceed with Brexit on the terms negotiated by the Prime Minister or stay in the European Union?
The situation we face reminds me very much of a Sherlock Holmes novel. I was reminded of it because I have been speaking up and down the country on Brexit recently. Two weeks ago, I was in Crowborough, where Sir Arthur Conan Doyle lived. Indeed, I had my photograph taken next to his statue. I had to get a special angle for the photo, because it is next to a Wetherspoon’s. For reasons noble Lords may understand, I was very keen to have Sir Arthur Conan Doyle in the picture, but I was not so delighted to have a Wetherspoon’s in it. I managed to get the right angle, however, and those who follow me on Twitter can see the picture.
In The Sign of the Four, Sherlock says:
“How often have I said to you that when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth?”
That is the situation the country now faces. The impossible have been eliminated: no deal; the Prime Minister’s deal; different variations of the Prime Minister’s deal; and supposed alternatives to the backstop, which simply have to be called alternative arrangements because they do not exist and cannot be defined. In a wonderful Orwellian twist, not having any alternative arrangements, what have the Government done? They have set up an alternative arrangements working group. You could not make it up. But there are no alternative arrangements. We will not have a frictionless border in Northern Ireland in the cloud and so on—it does not exist.
In this situation, the only sensible policy for the state that now exists is to take the best deal that can be negotiated, which is the Prime Minister’s existing one—at least that is technically possible to implement, because it has been negotiated—and put that to the people, with the alternative being to remain in the EU. In the conversations taking place between the Prime Minister and the leader of the Opposition, I believe it would be possible to forge a compromise on that basis.
The noble Lord is both wrong and right. He is right that the referendum was a simple choice. What did it show? It was not a decisive view either way; it showed that the country was deeply divided and confused. I think Sherlock Holmes or Dr Watson would say that the answer to all this must be a compromise, because the country is divided. Why does the noble Lord think that, in putting a further referendum to the country, things would be any different? We would still have a divided nation, maybe with a slight majority one way or the other, and there would still be a need for compromise. Is that not obvious?
I am precisely proposing a compromise, which is to take the Prime Minister’s deal, which is the best deal that can be negotiated if we are to have Brexit, and put it to the nation, with the alternative option being to stay in the European Union. That is a compromise that would bring both sides together. The compromise I do not think it is possible to have, which I know the noble Lord, Lord Howell, hankers after, is some half-bastardised form of Brexit. We have spent month after month searching for that and I am afraid that, like the holy grail, it does not exist.
(5 years, 11 months ago)
Lords ChamberMy Lords, the practical effect of this resolution would be to bring forward the debate on the Prime Minister’s Brexit deal by a week, because the debate could then start in that week—the first week of January—rather than the current proposal that it start in the second week of January with the vote in the third week. I am sure that if your Lordships were to advance their debate on the Prime Minister’s deal, this would encourage the House of Commons to do the same. The House of Commons is currently scheduled to begin its debate in the week of 7 January and to vote on 15 January.
I notify your Lordships that the leader of the House of Commons, speaking in the other place earlier, would not give a categoric commitment that the House of Commons will indeed start the debate on 7 January or conclude it on 15 January. It is quite clear that, just as we had the delay and prevarication from the Prime Minister two weeks ago that led to the current impasse in which we are engaged, that will continue into the new year. That seems all the more reason why your Lordships should give a lead in the crisis that the country faces.
I make no apology whatever for suggesting that the House return in the first week of January. We have 99 days until this country leaves the European Union, 19 of which will be occupied by the Recess, which will leave 80 days, with nobody having any clear idea whatever in that time as to what will happen to all those arrangements that depend on membership of the European Union.
Your Lordships will be aware of the background: we were supposed to vote on 10 December on the meaningful vote on the Prime Minister’s Brexit deal. The House of Commons was supposed to vote on 11 December, having announced until the very moment before the Prime Minister made her announcement, which contradicted it, that the vote would definitely proceed on 11 December. That vote was pulled. No indication was given as to when a further vote would take place. It has emerged only in the last 48 hours that there will be no further proceedings on the Brexit deal before the Recess that has just started in the House of Commons and that the vote is likely to take place on 15 January. That is a delay of more than a month.
This delay is not inconsequential. It has two huge impacts on the life of the country. First, it leaves unresolved the issue of the Prime Minister’s Brexit deal and any further actions that will follow after that vote. Since it is the near universal belief in the political world, which we will all be familiar with, that the Prime Minister does not have a majority for her deal in the House of Commons, crucial decisions will need to be taken after her deal is defeated. The serious debate on those options cannot begin until that vote has taken place. While this is happening—this is the reason why I make no apology whatever for bringing this matter to the attention of the House—businesses and individuals up and down the country will have their lives and affairs thrown into deep uncertainty, not only causing uncertainty as to what will happen to them but incurring massive costs because they cannot plan effectively until Parliament has taken these key decisions in respect of Brexit.
What reason did the Prime Minister give for delaying the votes on Brexit by more than a month? We all know the real reason, which is that she would not have won the votes and is playing for time and hoping that she can cobble together a new coalition that might vote for her deal in a month’s time. Her ostensible reason was to enable further negotiations to take place to revise the treaty which she agreed with the European Union in the early part of this month, in particular to agree some new arrangement in respect of the backstop, which would effectively keep Northern Ireland within the European Union after the rest of the United Kingdom engages in Brexit. However, that argument was shot down within hours of the Prime Minister making the announcement by the firm declarations of our European partners that there would be no further negotiations. When the European Parliament met three days after the Prime Minister withdrew her vote in the House of Commons, the President of the European Commission, said:
“There is a surprise guest at the European Council, which is Brexit. I am surprised. I am surprised because we had reached an agreement … There is no room whatsoever for renegotiation”.
The day after, the Chancellor of Germany, Mrs Merkel, said to the Bundestag:
“We have no intention of changing the Brexit deal. That’s the common position of the 27 member states. So there’s no reason to expect any changes to come from the discussions”.
The Prime Minister of the Netherlands, Mr Rutte, said on the same day that it would be,
“impossible to break open the … withdrawal agreement … this is the only deal … on the table”.
The pretence that there can be further negotiations is no more than that. There may be some further clarificatory words, although those of your Lordships who have read the 570 pages of the withdrawal agreement and the 30 pages of the political declaration will know that further words will not make any difference whatever to the meaning of the legal text, and there is no desire to open that. There will be nothing of substance that changes the context of our debates over the next month.
The reason this issue is so urgent is that, while Parliament is in a position of paralysis and is being kept in recess for the next 19 days, there is deep and growing alarm and frustration in the country about what is happening. It is not simply that no further decisions can be taken until after Parliament has voted on the Prime Minister’s deal but, incredibly, the Prime Minister has herself raised the prospect of a no-deal Brexit as the principal alternative to her deal. She explicitly ruled out in the House of Commons this week any move towards either a different negotiated agreement, which I agree with her would be almost impossible given the statements made by our European partners, or a referendum, which many of us believe is the only way that this issue will ultimately be resolved.
Having ruled out a referendum and any further negotiations, there is indeed by process of elimination only one option remaining, which is the one that she is now running against her deal. That is no deal and leaving the European Union at the end of March with no treaty whatever, which would have a calamitous impact on the economic life of this country.
Your Lordships do not need to take any of this from me. The five key business organisations of the country, the CBI, the Institute of Directors, the British Chambers of Commerce, the Federation of Small Businesses and the manufacturing body, the EEF—which always used to be closely allied to the Conservative Party but at the moment are looking in a state of horror at what the party is doing with the affairs of the country—put out a joint statement yesterday on the current situation. This is what they said:
“Businesses have been watching in horror as politicians have focused on factional disputes rather than practical steps that business needs to move forward. The lack of progress in Westminster means that the risk of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit is rising. Businesses of all sizes are reaching the point of no return, with many now putting in place contingency plans that are a significant drain of time and money. Firms are pausing or diverting investment that should be boosting productivity, innovation, jobs and pay, into stockpiling goods or materials, diverting cross border trade and moving offices, factories and therefore jobs and tax revenues out of the UK… With just 100 days to go, the suggestion that ‘no-deal’ can be ‘managed’ is not a credible proposition”.
That is the voice of the business community of this country on the eve of this House and Parliament going into recess for 19 days and refusing to engage with any of these issues, which are of such paramount concern to those who are responsible for our business affairs. What have the Government done in response? They have not met business, not engaged with the CBI and not sought—as they should have done if the Prime Minister were acting responsibly—to accelerate our deliberations on these issues. What the Government have done, even more incredibly, is to further intensify their planning for no deal.
In the House of Commons yesterday, in a debate on the Government’s intentions in respect of no deal, the Minister for the Brexit department, Mr Chris Heaton-Harris, said:
“Let me be clear”—
I have noticed that most of the Prime Minister’s statements begin “Let me be clear” and the more they begin with them, the less clear she is. However, he was in fact very clear and very explicit—
“a no-deal outcome and move to WTO terms … would lead to disruption and potential harm to critical industries”.—[Official Report, Commons, 19/12/18; col. 877.]
That is the Government speaking in the House of Commons yesterday.
The noble Lord has explained that he does not like no deal; nor do any of us—it is obviously a horrific prospect. Then he went on to explain, very eloquently, that there is no further give from Brussels or from the EU. However, as I understand it, his own party’s position is that, yes, there will indeed be more give from Brussels and a new deal will be secured. I do not quite understand how all this adds up.
My Lords, until Parliament has taken decisions on the Prime Minister’s deal, it is not going to be possible to consider other options. Those other options, which we will all have to consider, including my party, will include the possibility of further negotiations —though, given the statements by the European Council and other member states, I think that unlikely—or, crucially, the option of moving towards a referendum with the option within it of staying in the European Union. The reason it is so urgent that we do not go into recess for 19 days is precisely to meet the point of the noble Lord: until we have debated and reached the point of resolution on the Prime Minister’s treaty, it is not going to be possible to debate and decide on other options which could resolve the crisis we are now in.