European Council

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Tuesday 14th March 2017 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, in the discussions about future trade relations in the Council, was any mention made of the World Trade Organization’s new trade facilitation agreement, which came into operation last week? It transforms the handling of trade across customs union barriers and into traditional protected markets, such as the single market. Will this not change a great deal of the argument we are having about the validity of the single market and whether we are in or out of it? The noble Lord, Lord Newby, did not seem aware of that major change in the pattern of trade relations.

As to the Commonwealth, I am sure the Minister is aware that last week’s meeting of Commonwealth Trade Ministers reflected that a whole new pattern of world trade, driven by digital considerations, is emerging to which the Commonwealth, with its common legal arrangements and language, is peculiarly well suited. The prospects, which are again something that the noble Lord, Lord Newby, did not seem to understand, are very great for the expansion of trade in the digital age.

[Baroness Evans of Bowes Park]

I thank my noble friend. My noble friend Lord Price, in response to a Question earlier this week, outlined a number of ways in which we are looking to improve our trade relations with the Commonwealth. It is certainly a focus for us and we want to take advantage of our historic links. Obviously, as my noble friend well knows, our objective is to seek an ambitious and comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU. We are going into the negotiations positive that we can get a good deal for both the UK and the EU, which will work in both our interests.

European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Monday 20th February 2017 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Bowles of Berkhamsted (LD)]

My Lords, the Government are about to take the momentous step of triggering Article 50. I never had any doubt about that happening. There is a White Paper, whose purpose is, as the Secretary of State said,

“to inform all the debates … in the coming two years”.—[Official Report, Commons, 2/2/17; col. 1219.]

For the mother of all negotiations we have 73 pages, much of it occupied by current fact analysis, graphs and explanatory boxes, but with no substantive guidance on how co-operation is envisaged to work. How it could work is not a negotiating tactic; it is the fundamental prospectus and it should not be secret.

As the saying goes, we are where we are. We do not know where we will end up, because, in the words that spring out from the White Paper, our future relationship is entirely,

“a matter for the negotiations”.

It says so in paragraph 2.10 on dispute resolution; in 8.31 on our Euratom relationship; in 8.45 on our new customs relationship; in 8.42 on our relationship with European agencies; and in 12.2 for the interim arrangements that we will rely on. The Irish border, financial services, scientific co-operation—the list goes on. Dependent on the results of those negotiations will be the interpretation of the word “possible” in the frequently used expressions of “frictionless and seamless as possible”, “freely as possible”, “as much as possible”, “close as possible” and “as much certainty as possible”.

It is worse than no certainty, because the Government have said that they will jump off the cliff into disordered uncertainty as their only alternative. I do not agree that the Government already have an incontestable mandate for that; this may also turn out to be the constitutional position. Nor will there be any certainty through early priorities because we are merely on the brink of swapping the EU’s “no negotiation before triggering” mantra for its standard negotiating one of “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”. However, there could be one important certainty if the Government would confirm the acquired rights of EU citizens currently in the UK. Holding off is doing harm to the UK, in the NHS and elsewhere, so as a negotiating card it is bust—it is known and shown to have no value. At least grasp the fig leaf of decency now.

I declare a deep personal interest in Euratom because my late father, Percy Bowles, was arguably the foremost engineer of his time in atomic energy and particle accelerators. For UK purposes, the term “EU” includes Euratom in so far as context requires. Therefore, as it stands, the Bill might enable the Prime Minister to give notice, at the appropriate time, with regard to the Euratom legal entity. The question is when as well as whether that is appropriate. The Library note gives some arguments that it is not clear cut whether Euratom has to be included automatically in the Article 50 trigger. This gives the Government an opportunity and useful alternatives for transition, by not triggering Article 50 simultaneously with regard to Euratom. In this, it is the EU definitions that matter. Why not look before leaping and at least have some negotiation about the modalities under which there could be continuing membership of Euratom, having regard to the long liability timescales, which include eventual JET decommissioning? Even a short delay for Euratom might be helpful, given that the Dutch, French and German elections and summer holidays play the UK into Michel Barnier’s format of early talks being around the formulation of financial provisions. I cannot see why the UK would not keep this chance card when it keeps the useless EU migrants one.

There are amendments that I will support. The Government have made their own difficulties: there is inadequate information on how this is meant to work; the engineering, like a perpetual motion machine, is deeply suspect; and there is the needless closing off of options with their “not a jot or tittle of EU” approach. We did not need to be hog-tied in that way. In the end, you will have to cut some slack because you will be rumbled. Perpetual motion machines always are.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords—

--- Later in debate ---

[Lord Howell of Guildford]

I must apologise to the noble Lord, Lord Russell, for accidentally queue barging. I listened with interest to most of what he said. I did not agree with his last remark, but that is another matter.

Like others, I welcome this mercifully short Bill. I have to confess that after more than 45 years of almost continuous EU debates, Bills, treaties and arguments, it is quite hard to think of anything extremely new and useful to say. Of course, this House can add analysis, insights and advice aplenty, and many noble Lords are supremely well qualified to do that. We have heard some such comments this afternoon and will hear a great deal more in the weeks to come. However, I just cannot see the point at this stage of trying to amend what is essentially a procedure, to use the medical term, and one that must be handled with immense and undistracted care and a minimum of elbow jogging if it is to succeed and get us through to where we want to be.

There are said to be two front-runner amendments in prospect, so the media tell us. One concerns the status of EU residents. That is a very tricky one. I must confess that much as I would like to be on the side of the unilateralists, I am afraid that it looks as though a unilateral approach is not going to work. Some continental countries and leaders are clearly not going to budge except under pressure, and we obviously cannot abandon 1 million British citizens. The other front-runner is about Parliament’s say in a final deal. I am not sure that it will come back in this neat packaged way, as everyone currently, particularly those in the other place, seems to think. However, I will return to that in a moment.

The point I wish to make lies with trade and the single market. I confess my difficulty in trying to get into the mindset of those such as Tony Blair, the excellent noble Lord, Lord Mandelson, who spoke so clearly, and our Liberal Democrat friends, and their fears of a hard Brexit. The more I hear about their fears, the more I feel that I am listening to a world view of trade which is completely and utterly obsolete. Services, digital and conventional, are rapidly coming to dominate international exchange. McKinsey says that data and information flows generate more economic value than all global goods trade. Our economy is 80% services, 33% of them in actual digital or digitally-related businesses. Slightly under half of current export earnings come from services and this will grow fast. The recent Government White Paper tells us that 37% of the total value of our goods exports are services anyway. This is not just financial services. In fact, all the other services—retail, consultancy, legal services, creative industries, design, fashion, tourism, accountancy and much more—are still much bigger earners than financial services. The reason for this unstoppably powerful trend is that in the last few years we have seen the complete collapse of communication and information costs to almost zero and the internationalisation of production, with disruptive, transformative and revolutionary effects on all trade and investment flows.

A massive shift of global GDP shares from the west and the north to the east and the south has taken place, a total reversal of fortunes from the old form of globalisation in the 20th century that went on before 1990, where the north and the west got richer with global trade and the south got poorer. Now it is the other way round, except for the very richest who have done well in both areas. The chief new winners and the new markets are China, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Nigeria, Korea, Australia, Mexico and Turkey. Incidentally, three of those are in the Commonwealth. Of course, services know no boundaries as they are duty free and are not part of a customs union. On the other hand, they are restricted in the EU by numerous national and local rules.

The fact is that in recent years the EU has not been a good place for services expansion. Our UK services exports have grown less to other members within the EU than to outside markets, and outside countries not in the EU have done better in exporting services into the EU than we have since 1993, when the single market came into being. Of the 20 countries with the fastest export growth over the last 10 years, only three are in the EU. Meanwhile, global value chains wind across all continents, making a nonsense of protected production zones such as the single market, and with components and partly processed products crossing borders multiple times. The obvious conclusion and analysis is that being in or out of the old single market is of decreasing relevance to our interests and prosperity. Skills and sheer innovative power are becoming far more important.

It is a bitter fact that in these novel conditions we have so far been rather a bad exporter, one of the weakest in Europe. We live off a precarious model of massive trade deficits and heavy imports to fill the gap. We cannot go on like this. As noble Lords have observed, we need a new model. As my noble friend Lord Hill said earlier, business cannot operate in a vacuum and will not wait for these deliberations and negotiations. Businesses are making their own deals and arrangements. Quite aside from the complexity of it all, the whole prospect depends on how views crystallise across the channel. The EU is entering a major period of political upheaval. Another euro crisis is just round the corner. The Visegrad Four are going their own way. A divorce has to be agreed by 72% of Council members and a new relationship has to be agreed by 39 parliamentary chambers. How will it ever be finalised at a Brussels level? Will M Barnier ever have the authority to settle it all?

Of course, we must stay very close to our European neighbours on a whole range of security and safety issues. However, a new mental model is required to comprehend the unprecedented trade situation. Tony Blair says that the Government are not masters of the situation. He has not grasped that in these fluid new conditions no Government are in control or in mastery. We are caught up in historic forces—social, technological and therefore political—much bigger than any single Government, as are many other countries, including the United States of America. The old single market is a smaller and smaller part of the scene. Our interests and future prosperity now lie on a wider stage and we must move confidently and unimpeded to the centre of it.

Informal European Council

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Monday 6th February 2017 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, I very much welcome the Statement and, in particular, the congratulations that were offered to Her Majesty. I also welcome the very robust response that the noble Baroness gave. Does she agree that there seems to be a delusion in the other place, and maybe even in parts of this House, that ahead lies some neatly tied-up and bundled bespoke deal that will comprehensively cover all of our problems? Would it not be better to explain at this stage that we will see a whole range of sector-specific trade deals? For example, there will be deals on defence—such as those the Prime Minister addressed in Malta—on migrants and refugees, and on crime. These are all practical arrangements, which will be required in order to build a new relationship with the European Union and other independent states. Would it not be better to explain this than for us to believe that a marvellous, complete deal will emerge after the negotiations? It will not.

[Baroness Evans of Bowes Park]

I thank my noble friend for that question. I think that we are all under no illusion about the breadth and depth of the relationship we have with Europe at the moment and the scope of the negotiations. Some areas will no doubt be easier to come to an agreed position on than others, but we are determined to go in with a positive and optimistic frame of mind and to achieve a deal that works best for this country. We believe that our European partners will want to work with us to ensure that we create a new and positive partnership for both sides.

European Council

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Monday 24th October 2016 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, contrary to the views of the noble Baroness, Lady Smith, that there is nothing new in this Statement and contrary to the views of the noble Lord, Lord Newby, who poured another cold shower on the whole proceeding, does the Minister accept that some of the things she had to repeat today were extremely important and require very close examination as the future opens out increasingly clearly? For a start, does the Statement not dismiss the concept that there is a major distinction between soft and hard Brexit and suggest that in the rapidly changing conditions, both in the European Union and here, both these concepts are becoming more or less meaningless? Did I hear her also say that we are opening discussions with third parties, non-EU countries and OECD countries for free trade agreements? Are those discussions formal or informal? What about the need to ensure that existing FTA discussions between the EU and third countries are not mingled with the discussions that we are opening?

[Baroness Evans of Bowes Park]

I thank the noble Lord for that question. We most certainly want a deal that provides the freest possible trade with European markets and gives British companies the maximum freedom to trade with and operate in the single market. While he is right that we cannot conclude deals with EU members, there is nothing to stop us from having informal discussions and considering future options on free trade agreements. Countries like Canada, India, China, Mexico, Singapore and South Korea have already said they would welcome talks. We do not believe this is in competition with talks that are ongoing in the EU. As the Prime Minister made very clear in her Statement, we will continue to fully support EU trade agreements while we remain a member of the EU.

G20 Summit

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Wednesday 7th September 2016 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Evans of Bowes Park]

My Lords, as I think was clear from the Statement, we will not be providing a running commentary on what is happening. We want to get the best deal, and in order to get the best deal, as many noble Lords will know from their careers in business, you do not show your negotiating hand. What I have said is that the priority is to regain more control over the numbers of people coming here from Europe and, as the noble Baroness rightly said, to allow British companies to trade with the single market in goods and services.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, I do not think I heard the words “Hinkley Point C” mentioned in the Statement; perhaps I missed them. While I personally deplore some of the overhyped fears about Chinese security and threat—there is always a question, but it has been exaggerated—will my noble friend remind her Cabinet colleagues that there are ways forward with this particularly difficult project which will continue to combine the input of the Chinese, whose good will and technology we need, with the needs of the French and of EDF, which is a company in some difficulty, without saddling ourselves with the present prospect of a project of the wrong design at the wrong time that will load our industries and consumers for many years ahead with unnecessarily high energy costs?

[Baroness Evans of Bowes Park]

My noble friend is right: there was no reference to Hinkley in the Statement but, as the Prime Minister has said, there is more to our relationship with China than Hinkley. She spoke to President Xi about the fact that we are reviewing the Hinkley deal because it is a complex, large-scale infrastructure project. It is only right that we look at the detail and consider all its component parts. The Prime Minister assured President Xi that a decision will be made in a timely manner.

European Council

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Wednesday 29th June 2016 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Stowell of Beeston]

In response to the noble Lord’s first point, it is worth me clarifying what the arrangements are in terms of what the European Council can and cannot do in light of the United Kingdom’s decision. Until Article 50 is triggered, the European Council cannot meet without all of its member states. The meeting held today was not a meeting of the European Council; it was a meeting that they decided to hold in order to have informal discussions about the United Kingdom’s decision to exit from the European Union. That is a matter for them.

As far as the appointment of a new Commissioner is concerned, my noble friend Lord Hill has been an excellent Commissioner, and I am glad the noble Lord concurs with that point. As I said the other day, my noble friend made clear on Saturday his reasons for resigning from that post, and he obviously speaks for himself on that. However, as the Prime Minister has said, we are entitled to a European Commissioner and that is something he hopes to take forward.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

Would my noble friend agree that there are two gleams of light in this rather churlish account of what has occurred in Brussels? The first is that there are reports that the principle of freedom of movement is in fact being re-examined right across Europe; it was said to be immutable, but it seems that, in the real, practical world that we now live in, it will have to be changed and that might be extremely useful for us. Secondly, the central and east European countries—their Governments and, indeed, their peoples—seem to be urging that the present Commission should be removed and that the new Commission formed, and indeed the President of the Commission, should be rather more constructive and friendly towards the United Kingdom and our ambitions.

[Baroness Stowell of Beeston]

I would say something else in response to my noble friend and his comment about churlishness or any kind of negativity, and that is to point noble Lords to the comments made by my right honourable friend the Prime Minister. The talks that took place yesterday in Europe were constructive; the tone was warm. We have not reached a point where we are doing anything other than proceeding in a way that is both responsible and constructive and that will lead to, as far as we are concerned, a continuing relationship—albeit a very different one in the future—because we think that is important and in everybody’s interest.

As to my noble friend’s comment about freedom of movement and the prospect of that being changed in some way, I am not sure that the read-out that the Prime Minister has given me, or the comments that he made to the other place, would be quite as encouraging as my noble friend has suggested. On the contrary, the leaders of the other members of the European Union do feel very strongly about freedom of movement—and that being not just goods, services and capital but also people—and what the Prime Minister explained in his discussions with them last night was that a willingness to consider that differently might have made a difference. I think it is also worth noting that this new future arrangement with the European Union, whatever it may be, will not lead to the deal that the Prime Minister did strike some months ago. I do not think we should underestimate him, and perhaps now we can see just how much he did achieve in getting them to agree to those changes to the welfare arrangements as a response to this particular issue.

Outcome of the EU Referendum

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Monday 27th June 2016 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Stowell of Beeston]

Clearly the campaigns for leave and remain were cross-party, but there is one party in government. It was elected last year and this elected Government will have the responsibility, albeit very much, as I have already indicated, wanting to draw on expertise and knowledge from a range of different sources, of deciding what precisely they are going to seek to negotiate with Europe in terms of our future relationship.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, although in the next few weeks or even months we are obviously in a period of very painful adjustment—that is perfectly obvious—does my noble friend agree that it ought to be perfectly possible to achieve practical and constructive relations with all our European neighbours in the near future? I say that not just because it is a desirable thing for us to do but because the European Union itself is undergoing enormous changes and challenges at this moment and we are required to have a very constructive voice, whatever our status under the treaties. Does my noble friend agree that that approach will at least reassure our many friends all around the world and enable us to contribute to the continuing development of a strong Commonwealth network which will be a great support for us in future?

[Baroness Stowell of Beeston]

My noble friend is absolutely right. In addition to our relationships with other countries via those established institutions, whether they are the European Union, the Commonwealth, which we are absolutely still part of, the G7 or the G20, we will continue to build and strengthen our relations with other countries.

European Council

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Monday 22nd February 2016 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Stowell of Beeston]

The noble Baroness covered a lot of ground and she will forgive me for not dealing with all those points, in order to allow other noble Lords to get in. She suggested that the Prime Minister is only now making the positive case for Britain’s membership of the European Union; I disagree. It is also very important for us to acknowledge that there has been a great deal of frustration among the people of this country about the way Europe has operated for a long time. They have been frustrated at not getting the opportunity to have a referendum. The Prime Minister is being so positive about what he is putting forward to the United Kingdom because he has addressed people’s concerns through his renegotiation and is giving them the opportunity finally to have their say. That is an essential and important part of the message that we need to deliver.

On the noble Baroness’s other points, what is important about ever-closer union and what the Prime Minister was seeking to address in his renegotiation is that we now have the power—which we never had before—not to be involved in things we do not think are in Britain’s interests.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

Does my noble friend agree that, however one regards the details of the deal, there can be no doubt that our right honourable friend the Prime Minister has opened up huge new opportunities for the reform of Europe as a whole? As we have reached this point, will she encourage her colleagues in government from now on to put maximum brainpower, energy and imagination into working with the other peoples of Europe to achieve the fundamental reforms the European Union desperately needs in the face of its present crises, and for which most of the people of Europe are yearning?

[Baroness Stowell of Beeston]

My noble friend makes an important point which the Prime Minister, I and others in government are very conscious of. He is quite right, and as I think I said to him when I repeated the previous Statement, this is not the end but the start of a process of reform. We want Europe to work in the best interests of all its peoples. It started reforming. It started changing. It started reducing some of the regulation and burdens that we know are not in people’s interests, but more needs to be done and we will very much support that.

European Union: United Kingdom Renegotiation

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Thursday 4th February 2016 Lords Chamber

[Baroness Stowell of Beeston]

I am confident that those who are closely involved in this process have reviewed every text, document and so forth. I personally have not; I hope that the noble Lord will forgive me. The Prime Minister has made clear in his Statement that there are great benefits to being in the European Union that include access to trade. He is also clear that the United Kingdom could survive outside the European Union, but he wants to secure Britain’s membership in a reformed Europe—to negotiate something that would stack up for the people of this country and was then, in the end, for them to decide on.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, is not the fair and sensible verdict on this deal process so far that it is so far, so good? However, will the Minister accept that the really key word in the whole of this debate, and in the processes to discuss in the European Union, is “reform”, which lies at the centre of what I understand my right honourable friend the Prime Minister to be trying to achieve? Would it therefore not be best if London and the UK became—far more than at present—a strong source of ideas for the revitalisation and fundamental reinvigoration of the deeply troubled European Union rather than just a demander of concessions? Is that not the way we now want to go?

[Baroness Stowell of Beeston]

As always, my noble friend has spoken wise words, in that this is not just about trying to get concessions. It is about starting a reform process in Europe. I disagreed with what the noble Baroness said about the way the Prime Minister had approached this because, by starting this, he has kick-started within Europe a recognition that that institution has to change for all its members to prosper. More can be done. He hopes that he can achieve an agreement that will lead to us staying in a reformed Europe and for that to be the beginning of the process, not the end.

Syria: UK Military Action

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Wednesday 2nd December 2015 Lords Chamber

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, it is easy to be the backstop speaker at the end of this great debate, because almost everything that is wise and profound about this complex situation has been said by your Lordships, not least by my noble friend Lord Hague, my former boss, whose superb maiden speech I think we all recognise was the beginning, we hope, of many contributions in this place.

As the noble Lords, Lord Ashdown and Lord Ramsbotham, and other noble Lords have said, obviously the RAF bombing, however skilful, will make only a limited difference to the outcomes, and bombing alone will not eliminate the repulsive ISIS, or Daesh, which anyway now operates in many other places far away from Syria and Iraq—in the Maghreb, for instance. Air-supported intense ground operations at the very least are needed to make any lasting impact.

This is a global conflict against a global poison, as the most reverend Primate the Archbishop of Canterbury reminded us, in which many nations are already involved and which is different in horrific degree from all other conflicts raging around in the region. Even the Chinese are offering to lend a hand. Nothing will begin to be solved in this region until this pure evil is eradicated, and it is not just a western issue. In many ways I find the whole public discussion of whether we should somehow join in at this stage a demeaning and inward-looking process—small power politics in a big world that is moving on. The real issue is how we work, at least temporarily, with the Russians, our French neighbours, America, Iran, Turkey and the other regional powers such as the Peshmerga Kurds.

As to what kind of ground troops, again it is obvious that the front-line street fighting needs to be done not just by the slightly shaky Free Syrian Army but by units from the regional powers—as many as will play—plus expert support from our own special units, which we have available and of which we plan to have more. We will be discussing that in this House tomorrow. Where do we start? By far the most promising point is at the northern end of Jordan, where the Jordanians are seeking support for establishing a buffer zone—indeed, two buffer zones—cutting right into the ISIL heartland.

This is a new kind of conflict, not just with guns and troops but equally through information technology, cyberattacks, bank accounts and oil flows. We have ample capacity to impose devastating damage on ISIL in all these areas, and I only hope that we are already doing so and not just hanging about waiting for armchair experts in Parliament and the media to give us permission. Indeed, I must confess that I rather agree with the noble Baronesses, Lady Deech and Lady Symons, and others that the whole process in which we are now participating is somehow wrong. The job of Parliament is not to govern but to call the Government to account for their actions. I am told there is a convention that Parliament should decide this sort of issue. It is not a convention at all. It is a passing arrangement, a passing fad. It may be necessary in times of coalition but mercifully we are no longer there. The Executive, the Queen’s Ministers, should get ahead with their strategy and then win support for it in Parliament.

Of course there are many other fearsome security, refugee and humanitarian issues all lying ahead for us, particularly in the Middle East, but I say first things first. Let us have a co-ordinated strategy to destroy the crucifiers, the beheaders, the mass murderers, the rapists, the burn-us-alivers. Whatever the means, I cannot understand how anyone in their right mind could be against that.