Iran

Lord Howell of Guildford Excerpts

Wednesday 25th September 2019 Lords Chamber

[The Earl of Courtown]

My Lords, the noble Lord speaks from great experience in the region and in this subject—far more than I have, I must say. He makes some very good points about how we can develop a strategy that will force Iran to the table so that we can de-escalate for the long-term safely and properly, and bring safety and security to the region as a whole. His points are very valid.

The noble Lord also asked about the oil tanker that was detained in Gibraltar. The decision to release the ship was made by the Government of Gibraltar with, of course, our input. They made that decision based on formal assurances from Iran that the “Grace I” would not deliver oil to Syria. Iran breaking those assurances represents an unacceptable violation of international norms and a morally bankrupt course of action. It is apparent that there are only two established oil refineries in Assad regime-controlled Syria—in Baniyas and Homs. The European Union sanctioned both in 2014 for providing financial support to the Assad regime.

[Lord Howell of Guildford (Con)]

My Lords, I do not want to keep your Lordships from your dinners, but my noble friend Lord Marlesford was absolutely right: we are dealing with not just a Government but a whole number of factions, many empowered by electronic weaponry and electronic communications on a scale that did not exist even 10 years ago. It is a completely new situation. Do we realise that in this new situation talking about a war—“Shall we go to war?”—is an absurdity? In this digital world, a war settles nothing. Low-intensity and low-profile terrorism will continue indefinitely.

Have Her Majesty’s Government drawn two very important conclusions from this whole saga, including the attack on Abqaiq? First, the Saudi defences are incredibly weak, despite its enormous expenditure on conventional weapons, which will not do in this situation. Secondly, have we all noticed that the oil markets, although they spiked for a moment, immediately fell back, the reason being that the world oil supply has changed? Shale oil has changed everything and the significance of Middle East oil has been vastly reduced.

[The Earl of Courtown]

My Lords, my noble friend makes some good points. On areas of conflict and how to react to them, this is another area in which to talk about how cybersecurity, whatever it may be—whether drones or missiles and how to guard against them—moves apace. It is always a case of catching up to make proper defences in these areas. Yes, as far as the Iranian Government and those involved in government are concerned, there are many different parties to it. That is one reason why the sanctions imposed are against individuals and individual organisations, rather than the country itself. We currently have 250 EU sanction listings in place against Iran for nuclear-related and ballistic missile activity, including against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in its entirety.