CPTPP: Conclusion of Negotiations

Debate between Lord Hamilton of Epsom and Lord Johnson of Lainston

Wednesday 19th April 2023 Lords Chamber

[Lord Johnson of Lainston (Con)]

I am grateful to the noble Viscount. I was not asking for praise for myself or enthusiasm for my own actions, but enthusiasm for the actions of the Secretary of State, the department and this Government in pursuing this noble free-trade policy, which will ultimately enrich us all and make us safer.

The noble Viscount asks very sensible questions about the specificity of our relationship with Vietnam regarding the CPTPP. As I have said, the CPTPP contains a large number of chapters that will allow us more effectively to achieve market access for our goods, and with greater haste. In my view, that is in itself a very positive point. I have touched on some of the other aspects that apply broadly to the CPTPP, and I am happy to repeat the statistic I was sent this morning, although I cannot guarantee its legitimacy. Maybe I should declare an interest, to some extent: I have personal financial shareholdings in companies that invest in these countries, although I am not involved in them directly, as noble Lords can imagine. Vietnam is forecast to grow faster than any major country on earth between now and 2050. I would have thought any arrangement that allows us access to a market of that dynamic nature must be a positive for this country.

If we consider our long-term security and the importance of diversifying our supply chain and looking at how our supplying countries interact with us, I cannot think of any more powerful ally than Vietnam in this instance. I look forward to visiting that nation and seeing if we can encourage investment from there into the UK.

[Lord Hamilton of Epsom (Con)]

My Lords, I have an interest to declare, in that my noble friend the Minister is actually my son-in-law. I have been advised that, on that basis, I can call him my noble kinsman. I am not sure that he actually is my noble kinsman but on the other hand, it is rather useful shorthand for declaring my interest when getting up to ask him a question. First, I congratulate my noble kinsman on the role he has played in achieving our signing of this treaty, which is going to make a massive difference. May I ask about the rather minimal increase to trade of 0.08%? I just wonder what assumptions were made when this forecast was produced. Does my noble friend recognise that many recent economic forecasts have applied on the basis of “garbage in, garbage out”?

[Lord Johnson of Lainston (Con)]

I thank my noble kinsman for his intervention; this is the first time we have spoken in this way. I asked the House of Lords Library whether there were any other pairings of son-in-law and father-in-law, and I have not received a response; maybe the Library was too alarmed by our own prospects. But my noble kinsman raises a good point about the statistical analysis of the value of this trade deal to the UK. I wish to avoid getting drawn into complex statistical discussions in this important but short opening debate, but I am happy to do so in the future, and there will be further impact assessments.

It is difficult to forecast the ramifications of a trade arrangement. In fact, what has been produced is not a forecast; it is a static model. It is not for me to lecture Peers in this House on how that functions but as the name implies, it is a static model rather than a positive forecast of how trade can be increased on account of this deal. All I will say is that New Zealand signed a free trade deal with China, and its model projected $3 billion a year of additional trade activity; I think within five years, it was over $30 billion a year. So it is not simply a question of looking at one static model; we must look at a more effective impact assessment in the future and make our own forecasts. As I say, it is not simply about trade data; it is also about the influence we will have in this region and the philosophical endeavour we embark on to encourage free trade around the world.