Carbon Budget Order 2011
Debate between Lord Grantchester and Lord Prescott
Lord Prescott
My Lords, I shall make a brief intervention in view of the time. The noble Lord, Lord Turnbull, was in fact my Permanent Secretary at one stage and was the Cabinet Secretary when we established the lead on Kyoto and a legal framework. Clearly, he has done some rethinking on this matter since he joined this House and I look forward to further debates. Let us be clear, however: the previous Government established a lead, and we were proud of it. To be honest, this Government are continuing it. My main worry is: what if you do not achieve the legal framework that you are after? There is not a chance in hell of getting a legal framework. I am one of those who have advocated it, but China will not have it and the Americans cannot deliver it. Quite honestly, you might think that the Europeans are going to go to 30 per cent from 20, but I predict that is highly unlikely.
What worries me about that is that it will feed all the pessimism of people who feel that this will be a failure and run costly to our industry, but we must maintain the momentum of the Kyoto principles. That is important, but we should recall that 2012 is the end of the Kyoto period. Is it going to continue with a legal framework? No, it cannot do that by 2012, or you will find that the Kyoto framework will fall—as the Americans would want—and there would be renegotiation. I hope that the Minister has a plan B here. If we are having plan As and plan Bs, one of them should be to recognise that we will not get a legal framework by 2012, yet the Kyoto principles should not fall.
There will be great division between the developed and the developing countries. It is already on the cards that way so if that is not going to be achieved, what will happen then in Europe? Many of those in the central European belt and coal areas will say that they are not going to go to 30 per cent. There is a great possibility that we will not now be able to deliver on the Europe promise, which with courage the Government have said they will do. They are now going for an 80 per cent project, which has little chance, frankly, of being achieved, but then most of us will not be around by then to say whether we were right or wrong. There is a certain amount of posturing going on around this, which can undermine the momentum we have with the Kyoto principles.
I think I said this when there were Questions in the House: I fear we will then step back and say that we were the ones who led the way, but if we cannot get the others to follow, then blame them not us. There should be a plan B. We should already be thinking about how we carry on beyond that period. It is not unusual for Europe to stop the clock: it did it all through negotiations and continues to do it. It sets a timetable. Let me suggest that in plan B we go beyond 2012, perhaps to 2015. The voluntary framework agreed in Cancun and now being discussed in Durban is difficult enough to implement in all its many manifestations and we have to make sure that we have another plan in mind or it will collapse.
My fear is that we will get up and say that we were the ones who were leading, but we have got no army and nobody is following us. Then everybody will say that Kyoto 2 has failed; that you cannot get an agreement and that will damage the momentum to deal with the problem of climate change. In conclusion, I ask the Minister whether we have got a plan B. The Minister has already said that if we do not get Europe with us on 30 per cent we will reconsider the position. Is that right? We could still continue the legislative framework, if that is what we choose, while most of the world stays on a voluntary one. Have we alternatives so that we do not damage the possibility of a Kyoto 2?
Lord Grantchester
I thank the Minister for his introduction today to these two orders. It builds on the fourth carbon budget statement on 17 May. It is important that the objective to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by 80 per cent of 1990 levels by 2050 has been enshrined in legislation. It underlines the commitment shared across the political divide—excepting the noble Lord, Lord Reay, and others I admit—over the long-term approach required to combat the effects of climate change. It sends a clear signal to the international community that the UK is committed to the low-carbon economy.
The noble Lord, Lord Teverson, has put forward a strong case that climate change is happening and I know many are frustrated at the low level of action by other governments. It is important that we also recognise the work of the Committee on Climate Change, that it is a crucial part of the assessment of the latest climate science, the evolving international framework and the critical pathways required. I pay tribute to it for its expert advice to Government.
That is not to say that these orders are not controversial. Indeed, the Minister may recognise that the importance of the imperative to make early progress across Government required the intervention of the Prime Minister. It has also not gone unnoticed that for the first time the CCC’s recommendations have not been accepted in full. While it is recognised that the first three carbon budgets were set after the EU had already agreed the 2020 target, the fourth carbon budget is being set in advance of any EU decisions and without any overarching EU framework being in place. In the light of this, will the Minister outline the reasons behind the justification to reject the tightening of emission targets in the second and third carbon budgets covering the years 2013 to 2022?
I enjoyed and look forward to the contributions in your Lordships’ House from my noble friend Lady Worthington. She brings great knowledge on these issues. She has asked the Minister about the size of the carbon offsets under the second order that were are debating today and the signal it may give. While it is understood that the Minister would like to have these credits as a fallback position, is he able to say why he fears these may be necessary, bearing in mind that the CCC recommended that they should not be relied upon and the budget should be met through reduced emissions?